The decline of FG?

Not sure where you got the idea that I was referring to government formation only.

Further decline? What decline have we seen? Simon Harris oversaw an election that managed to turn over 50% of his parliamentary party with only a marginal drop in representation, and put himself back in government, where he will serve as Taoiseach again for 2 years.

If you saw the TV reporting of the original Conway incident at the weekend, the pol corrs were at pains to point out that FG are being guided completely by the young woman who was the victim of his behaviour. She wants her identity protected before all other considerations, and that limits the public airing of the party processes. She is absolutely entitled to that.

How where they third when they got 40,000 more votes than Sinn Fein?

SF haven't been able capitalise on a number of crises and somehow went backwards from the position prior to the last election.

They can't seem to get close to forming a coalition.

You have to ask yourself, as an big supporter of SF and no doubt wanting to see them in charge, why enough people don't trust them to run the country? Is it because of their record in the North? Is it because of a lack of trust on how they are run and their very recent history with some members, is it because of their lack of concrete policies? Is it because they didn't actually manage to form a government last time?

Why do you think they are finding themselves in these positions and what do you see the party doing to address these concerns?

I say all of the above as someone who seriously considered voting SF number 1 this time round but didn't based on their internal issues the past few months.

It's been mentioned already but the "decline" of FF and FG has seen them in government for another 4 years. I do think the confidence and supply agreement and the last term in government have mortally wounded the chances of either party every getting into government on their own again however the ONLY party that was within an asses roar of either of them (SF) doesn't seem to be able to capitalise on anything. There's no real "decline" in FF or FG unless either/both don't make it into government.

SF's travails are a core reason that FG aren't actually in decline (in relation to government)

I'd still wonder why you believe SF are where they are?

I think all you need to do is imagine yourself as a historian 100 years from now.

You would most definitely be describing this period as a decline in support for FG and FF. Even if they are in government, having to go to lengths they are to get a government together will not be lost on historical analysts, whose angle will not be trying to put the best foot forward.

FG are lucky there arent any parties in government, that ease the burden on taxpayers! They would take a serious hit, if there was!

It's totally irrelevant how much its changing if the parties that aren't FF and FG can't get the votes to either go into government on their own (which is very unlikely for any party nowadays) or haven't displayed the capability to form a government with other parties/individuals, despite having twice attempted to do so (allegedly).

The last election had to be an absolute kick in the teeth for SF. Hopefully they've learned some lessons, but pased on performance since, I doubt it very much.

The period from 2011 to 2020 may be described by historians as a blip in support for FF and FG, and the failure of first Labour, and then Sinn Fein, to take advantage, leading to a veritable alphabet soup of parties being formed - Aontu, II and SDs included - which gave FF and FG the position to keep ruling, sometimes together, sometimes in turn with someone else, past the 150th anniversary of the State.

That narrative fits the facts more than yours as it accounts for the SF failure and decline in 2024.

The vast majority of the electorate does not vote for ANY single political party. What matters is gaining enough votes to enter govt, and FG have done that for 20 years on the trot, come the end of this term.

That run may well extend for longer than 20 years, following the next GE.

FGs popular vote increased in 2024, vs 2020. There was no decline.

SF, on the other hand, saw their popular vote plummet by 21% between the GE's of 2020 and 2024.

The decline in FF FG happened over a decade ago, when Labour surged. They have steadied now, and look once again to be the natural government, albeit in partnership moving forward.

The time may have passed for Labour and Sinn Fein, with the latter in particular looking jaded, tired and old.

I have to hand it to you, I just checked, and the total first preference vote for FF and FG combined, did decline from 2020 to 2024 - by the amount of 353 votes. Hanging your whole argument on that is an incredible bit of bravado.

By contrast, Sinn Fein lost 116,698 votes between 2020 and 2024.

My point stands - Labour in 2011 and Sinn Fein in 2020 both had opportunities to break the mould of Irish politics. They failed and we returned to the mean with FF and FG in power. Maybe another party will rise to challenge the big two, but the increased fragmentation speaks to otherwise.

FFG have been mostly aligned for most of this century. Its not 1930 anymore Francie.

Both FF and FG will not just coalesce with anyone, SF being the obvious example.

There is more chance with MM out of the picture, but still much more likely that FF will stick with FG, as they are just more politically aligned.

If the current SF slide continues into GE 2029 and SF lose another 100k FP votes, they wont be in the picture anyway; its more likely that Independents/Labour/Soc Dems will mount the challenge to FFG.