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The decline of FG?

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  • 15-06-2024 3:29pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 5,888 ✭✭✭


    Now that the full results of the 2024 are in the performance of SF, Greens and FG were the most interesting in my mind. We've threads for the other two so a thread in FG performance is much needed.

    The talk amongst the media has been very positive about FG performance and in Harris' positive impact on FG. This does slightly surprise me I have to say.

    FG first prefer vote percentage fell by 2.3% and they have lost seats since 2019. In the Europeam elections they first preference vote share fell by a massive 9% and they lost oen seat.

    Will FG still be the largest party after the next general election? In 2011 FG won 72 seats and FF won 20. Incredible to think that just over a decade later FF could very possible overtake them. Can Harris stop the rot and what does he need to do to do that?

    The dynamic between FF and FG and their voters will also be very interesting to see. They clearly transferred very well in the locals and Europeans. I've no doubt this was very much based on their fear of SF being a direct threat and rival for largest party. Will they still view SF as that big of threat, and if not, as the two parties will be direct rivals for largest party how will that impact their relationship?



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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,743 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    It does look like the FF and FG vote has equalised, so it is possible that anyone who voted for either of them generally voted for both.



  • Registered Users Posts: 192 ✭✭Aurelian


    FG have been bouncing around the same support levels for 100 years. A couple of times they went up when FF waned. It's very cyclical.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,434 ✭✭✭orangerhyme


    Its difficult to know.

    There's lots of working people in Ireland with mortgages who are content with the status quo. So I think FF and FG will do ok in the next GE.

    SF offer change but it seems to be change for the sake of change. No actual well thought out policies.

    SF won't be able to form a government without going into coalition with FF, but FF seem happy with FG.

    I think FF and FG will get in the low 20s each so will form a coalition with SDs, Greens, Labour, Independents etc…

    SDs, Labour and Greens are center left but really FG and FF are center or center left despite people saying they're center right, so no big deal in forming a coalition.

    I think Holly Cairns is very ambitious and wants to be in power. She'll be offered Minister for Social protection I think.

    I think amongst the middle class there's a lack of trust in SF.

    I also think the SF vote will be split by other lefties and independents and also far right which is counter intuitive so they're polling figures won't translate into seats.

    Although I'm pretty sure there'll be a "vote left, transfer left" movement for the election.



  • Site Banned Posts: 2,799 ✭✭✭Bobtheman


    Ah the SF counter spin with the Palestinian flag to boot.

    There is no doubt that FG vote has been sliding by about 10% since 2011 but that's after 13 years of power plus an intense period of austerity. A housing crisis.

    The Normal FG vote is around 27%. To be fair being around 23% ain't bad.

    They have a good chance of being back in power.

    SF are now the new permanent opposition. Pretty much what FG were up to 2011.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,434 ✭✭✭orangerhyme


    It will come down to FF who forms a government.

    Micheal Martin will be 64 by next election so it will probably be his last term in office.

    Will he want his last term in office to be with SF or FG?

    He might want to leave a legacy like a United Ireland so maybe that might influence his decision.



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  • Site Banned Posts: 2,799 ✭✭✭Bobtheman


    Both FG and FF want to leave SF where they are.

    Martin hates SF so I really can't see it happening.

    I think SF support will increase by the GE unless the stench of loser sticks to them



  • Site Banned Posts: 2,799 ✭✭✭Bobtheman


    A GE is a different beast to local but the real wind seems to be behind the independents and they mainly seem to be right of centre. That's good for FG.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,888 ✭✭✭Augme


    God forbid anyone questions FG'a performance. 😂

    Their vote was actually just under 21% in the Europeans which might be a more accurate barometer for the GE.

    Do you think FG will be happy to become more socially conservative and climate change spectic to court their support?



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,743 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    I can foresee FG dialling down the Green agenda but not as far as going change sceptic. Might have to pander to a bit of anti-immigration but the big ticket things (abortion, SSM, ..) they will have the sense not to touch.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,434 ✭✭✭orangerhyme


    I think Simon Harris will use the next few months making his mark on immigration.

    Housing numbers are slowly improving.

    I think he'll call an election at latest possible time cos he wants to make his mark first.

    We will benefit as a country from green policies so I don't see why FG need to go climate skeptic.

    We could be net zero on electricity production in 20 years whilst selling electricity to UK and Europe.



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  • Site Banned Posts: 2,799 ✭✭✭Bobtheman


    A lot of clutching at straws by SF supporters. FG down by 21% since the last euros? Perhaps but I think overall after 13 years in power they did well.

    Interest rates are coming down. A lot of floating voters have gone right not left. Neither is good news for SF

    Don't get me wrong I want to see SF in power but with either FG or FF.

    SF have spouted a lot of bull on housing while objecting to new housing. The 300k house gambit.

    They need to focus back on the poor performance of this government on housing and health. Stop making idiotic promises and they have a good shot of adding 5% to the the locals outcome.



  • Site Banned Posts: 2,799 ✭✭✭Bobtheman


    Both FF and FG went way too enthusiastically woke. This included forcing multi culturalism down the nations throats.

    Giving full welfare to Ukrainians at a time when Irish parents can't get a psychologist or speech therapist was insulting.

    I was talking to a local homeless man who sleeps in a tent. He is Irish and must wonder what he did wrong. No hotel room for him.

    Both SF and FG have to figure a reasonable way out of this mess.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,888 ✭✭✭Augme


    Can you please stick to the topic of the thread. This thread is about the decline in support for FG, this thread isn't about SF. There's another thread SF thread on the forum to discuss SF.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,434 ✭✭✭orangerhyme




  • Site Banned Posts: 2,799 ✭✭✭Bobtheman


    Well I dealt with both. FG had a reasonable election. They are in pole position to be reelected.

    Pretending other than that that by taking off a thread title about SF won't change that.

    FF their main partner did a lot better the expected. The opinion polls had them around 16%. They got 22 %

    The left coherent parties (SDP, Labour and SF combined got what 20%?

    Interest rates coming down. The floating voter who at heart is a simple soul has gone right. To roaring independents. They will back FG

    Harris is a way better debater than Leo.

    It will be easier for FG to dump wokism than SF because the left tends to love internationalism and multi culturalism.

    Getting rid of a man with the name varadker will help that shift. Sad to say.

    I shall say no more



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,445 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    Will FG still be the largest party after the next general election? …

    as the two parties will be direct rivals for largest party how will that impact their relationship?

    A bit like the question of which of two teams comes third or fourth in the premier league: a minor point of bragging rights between the two, but they overriding point is that they both qualify for the Champions League.

    Similarly FG's laser focus will be on maximising the combined seat total for themselves and FF so the two have the best possible chance of putting together another government.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,888 ✭✭✭Augme


    Of course it's not the same topic. Unless the poster, or you, are trying to argue that SF position on housing snd health is the reason for FGs decline in support or that previous FG voters have have now switched to SF. Otherwise posting about SF about policy has no relevance to FG decline in support.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,434 ✭✭✭orangerhyme


    I agree.

    I liked Leo but I think he was a lightning rod for a lot of the criticism of FG. I think he knew that so was one reason he stepped down.

    It'll be interesting to see what Simon Harris does in the next few months as he doesn't have a lot of time to make his mark.

    I wonder will they try to push through the new licensing laws, the Cork events center, Waterford airport etc...Go for a few easy wins.

    The next budget will be interesting.

    It's interesting also that it'll probably be Micheal Martin's last election also.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,434 ✭✭✭orangerhyme


    It's all the same topic.

    If FG lose votes, those votes go somewhere else like SF or SDs or independents etc.

    It's all related.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,888 ✭✭✭Augme


    Like the teams who finish 3rd and 4th, do they have the ambition to push on and aim for 1st or do they just stay content with 3rd and 4th?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 16,445 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    FG are actually favourite with some of the bookies to the be the largest party after the next GE but that won't be their focus because even if they made that mark it wouldn't change the fundamental political equation: that the only way they will be able to form a government will be through some form of agreement with FF. I suppose in the long run their ambition would be to get back to the dominant position they enjoyed in 2011 and form a government with a smaller party or parties. But there is likely to be some ambivalence about that objective within FG as all current prospective partners in that scenario are to the left of FF…



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,888 ✭✭✭Augme


    FG options for government are limited, it's only FF they could go in with. FF could go in with FG, SF and/or an independent Ireland. I wonder if this will impact FF transfers going forward if they see FG as their direct rival. If FF can get 55 seats, that will put them in a great position to lead a majority government with SF and Independent Ireland. Would they rather that than power sharing with FG.

    As I said, up until now they were united behind their fear of SF's raise in popularity. Now that's gone, how will it impact their relationship. Will we see more of the below over the next 6 months in an attempt to increase their support over the other.



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,445 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    If FF can get 55 seats, that will put them in a great position to lead a majority government with SF and Independent Ireland. Would they rather that than power sharing with FG.


    I'm not seeing any sign of this from opinon polls. All the signs are FG will be the larger party after the next GE. About the best FF could hope for is a dead heat. I'm sure FF as a party do aspire to the kind of scenario you envisage in the long term but Martin isn't looking to the long term. One more spell of joint authority with FG will suit him fine as the finale to his career…



  • Registered Users Posts: 21,413 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    It would be very silly to think SF can't turn around their poor showing, this time. Major heads in both FG and FF would be happy with a continuation of the present Govn't. Greens get the heat on climate issues eg carbon tax. Some lesser yokels, in FG and FF are mouthing off a bit about the Greens, but their voice in unimportant. FF, esp with MM will always go with FG rather than SF. O'Riordan may have a good point in LB, Soc Dems and Greens having some common aims and that grouping becoming the third leg of the next Govn't. The other option this group has is to side up is to side up with SF, PBP etc. in a full left alliance. Don't see that happening.

    I don't think the Greens will have enough TDs to take FG + FF into safe numbers.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,434 ✭✭✭orangerhyme


    I was thinking the same about Michael Martin. This is surely his last election and term in office.

    Will that change his mindset?

    Would he consider a coalition with FF and go for a border poll and a United Ireland?

    At that age he'll be thinking about legacy and making history rather than keeping his seat.



  • Registered Users Posts: 21,413 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Don't worry, junior will step into that seat. He might even find a Commission job for McGrath to smooth the path. FF won't be rushing for a border poll. Cowen also gone to Europe, out of the way. They're quite content largely to be part of Govn't. Up to FG to stay ahead or near SF Dail numbers.



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,445 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    I don't think the Greens will have enough TDs to take FG + FF into safe numbers.

    Every chance they'll down to one or two TDs. Catherine Martin's is their only 'safe' seat…



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,095 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Interesting , never thought FF/SF/II was a runner but doesn't sound that crazy. He will have his eye on replacing Michael D I think after the next election.

    If I had to bet FF/FG/II seems the obvious call IMO. The FF/SF/II just sounds to messy , not sure FF would be keen and II lean to right wing for SF I think.



  • Registered Users Posts: 21,413 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Doubt if II want to be in Govn't but they'd be delighted to take the position from the Greens, their bogeymen.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 27,888 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    A wind-up thread.

    Last I checked Fine Gael were the most popular political party in Ireland.

    They went from third place in the 2020 general election to first place in the 2024 local and European elections.

    If that is decline, some of the other parties would be gagging for it.



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