The decline of FG?

Augme

Now that the full results of the 2024 are in the performance of SF, Greens and FG were the most interesting in my mind. We've threads for the other two so a thread in FG performance is much needed.

The talk amongst the media has been very positive about FG performance and in Harris' positive impact on FG. This does slightly surprise me I have to say.

FG first prefer vote percentage fell by 2.3% and they have lost seats since 2019. In the Europeam elections they first preference vote share fell by a massive 9% and they lost oen seat.

Will FG still be the largest party after the next general election? In 2011 FG won 72 seats and FF won 20. Incredible to think that just over a decade later FF could very possible overtake them. Can Harris stop the rot and what does he need to do to do that?

The dynamic between FF and FG and their voters will also be very interesting to see. They clearly transferred very well in the locals and Europeans. I've no doubt this was very much based on their fear of SF being a direct threat and rival for largest party. Will they still view SF as that big of threat, and if not, as the two parties will be direct rivals for largest party how will that impact their relationship?

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058356022/the-decline-of-fg

It does look like the FF and FG vote has equalised, so it is possible that anyone who voted for either of them generally voted for both.

Aurelian

FG have been bouncing around the same support levels for 100 years. A couple of times they went up when FF waned. It's very cyclical.

orangerhyme

Its difficult to know.

There's lots of working people in Ireland with mortgages who are content with the status quo. So I think FF and FG will do ok in the next GE.

SF offer change but it seems to be change for the sake of change. No actual well thought out policies.

SF won't be able to form a government without going into coalition with FF, but FF seem happy with FG.

I think FF and FG will get in the low 20s each so will form a coalition with SDs, Greens, Labour, Independents etc…

SDs, Labour and Greens are center left but really FG and FF are center or center left despite people saying they're center right, so no big deal in forming a coalition.

I think Holly Cairns is very ambitious and wants to be in power. She'll be offered Minister for Social protection I think.

I think amongst the middle class there's a lack of trust in SF.

I also think the SF vote will be split by other lefties and independents and also far right which is counter intuitive so they're polling figures won't translate into seats.

Although I'm pretty sure there'll be a "vote left, transfer left" movement for the election.

Bobtheman

Ah the SF counter spin with the Palestinian flag to boot.

There is no doubt that FG vote has been sliding by about 10% since 2011 but that's after 13 years of power plus an intense period of austerity. A housing crisis.

The Normal FG vote is around 27%. To be fair being around 23% ain't bad.

They have a good chance of being back in power.

SF are now the new permanent opposition. Pretty much what FG were up to 2011.

orangerhyme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122262963#Comment_122262963

It will come down to FF who forms a government.

Micheal Martin will be 64 by next election so it will probably be his last term in office.

Will he want his last term in office to be with SF or FG?

He might want to leave a legacy like a United Ireland so maybe that might influence his decision.

Bobtheman

Both FG and FF want to leave SF where they are.

Martin hates SF so I really can't see it happening.

I think SF support will increase by the GE unless the stench of loser sticks to them

Bobtheman

A GE is a different beast to local but the real wind seems to be behind the independents and they mainly seem to be right of centre. That's good for FG.

Augme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122262963#Comment_122262963

God forbid anyone questions FG'a performance. 😂

Their vote was actually just under 21% in the Europeans which might be a more accurate barometer for the GE.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122263044#Comment_122263044

Do you think FG will be happy to become more socially conservative and climate change spectic to court their support?

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122263276#Comment_122263276

I can foresee FG dialling down the Green agenda but not as far as going change sceptic. Might have to pander to a bit of anti-immigration but the big ticket things (abortion, SSM, ..) they will have the sense not to touch.

orangerhyme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122263276#Comment_122263276

I think Simon Harris will use the next few months making his mark on immigration.

Housing numbers are slowly improving.

I think he'll call an election at latest possible time cos he wants to make his mark first.

We will benefit as a country from green policies so I don't see why FG need to go climate skeptic.

We could be net zero on electricity production in 20 years whilst selling electricity to UK and Europe.

Bobtheman

A lot of clutching at straws by SF supporters. FG down by 21% since the last euros? Perhaps but I think overall after 13 years in power they did well.

Interest rates are coming down. A lot of floating voters have gone right not left. Neither is good news for SF

Don't get me wrong I want to see SF in power but with either FG or FF.

SF have spouted a lot of bull on housing while objecting to new housing. The 300k house gambit.

They need to focus back on the poor performance of this government on housing and health. Stop making idiotic promises and they have a good shot of adding 5% to the the locals outcome.

Bobtheman

Both FF and FG went way too enthusiastically woke. This included forcing multi culturalism down the nations throats.

Giving full welfare to Ukrainians at a time when Irish parents can't get a psychologist or speech therapist was insulting.

I was talking to a local homeless man who sleeps in a tent. He is Irish and must wonder what he did wrong. No hotel room for him.

Both SF and FG have to figure a reasonable way out of this mess.

Augme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122263534#Comment_122263534

Can you please stick to the topic of the thread. This thread is about the decline in support for FG, this thread isn't about SF. There's another thread SF thread on the forum to discuss SF.

orangerhyme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122263628#Comment_122263628

It's the same topic really.

Bobtheman

Well I dealt with both. FG had a reasonable election. They are in pole position to be reelected.

Pretending other than that that by taking off a thread title about SF won't change that.

FF their main partner did a lot better the expected. The opinion polls had them around 16%. They got 22 %

The left coherent parties (SDP, Labour and SF combined got what 20%?

Interest rates coming down. The floating voter who at heart is a simple soul has gone right. To roaring independents. They will back FG

Harris is a way better debater than Leo.

It will be easier for FG to dump wokism than SF because the left tends to love internationalism and multi culturalism.

Getting rid of a man with the name varadker will help that shift. Sad to say.

I shall say no more

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058356022/the-decline-of-fg

Will FG still be the largest party after the next general election? …

as the two parties will be direct rivals for largest party how will that impact their relationship?

A bit like the question of which of two teams comes third or fourth in the premier league: a minor point of bragging rights between the two, but they overriding point is that they both qualify for the Champions League.

Similarly FG's laser focus will be on maximising the combined seat total for themselves and FF so the two have the best possible chance of putting together another government.

Augme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122263663#Comment_122263663

Of course it's not the same topic. Unless the poster, or you, are trying to argue that SF position on housing snd health is the reason for FGs decline in support or that previous FG voters have have now switched to SF. Otherwise posting about SF about policy has no relevance to FG decline in support.

orangerhyme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122263664#Comment_122263664

I agree.

I liked Leo but I think he was a lightning rod for a lot of the criticism of FG. I think he knew that so was one reason he stepped down.

It'll be interesting to see what Simon Harris does in the next few months as he doesn't have a lot of time to make his mark.

I wonder will they try to push through the new licensing laws, the Cork events center, Waterford airport etc...Go for a few easy wins.

The next budget will be interesting.

It's interesting also that it'll probably be Micheal Martin's last election also.

orangerhyme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122263699#Comment_122263699

It's all the same topic.

If FG lose votes, those votes go somewhere else like SF or SDs or independents etc.

It's all related.

Augme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122263675#Comment_122263675

Like the teams who finish 3rd and 4th, do they have the ambition to push on and aim for 1st or do they just stay content with 3rd and 4th?

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122264607#Comment_122264607

FG are actually favourite with some of the bookies to the be the largest party after the next GE but that won't be their focus because even if they made that mark it wouldn't change the fundamental political equation: that the only way they will be able to form a government will be through some form of agreement with FF. I suppose in the long run their ambition would be to get back to the dominant position they enjoyed in 2011 and form a government with a smaller party or parties. But there is likely to be some ambivalence about that objective within FG as all current prospective partners in that scenario are to the left of FF…

Augme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122264735#Comment_122264735

FG options for government are limited, it's only FF they could go in with. FF could go in with FG, SF and/or an independent Ireland. I wonder if this will impact FF transfers going forward if they see FG as their direct rival. If FF can get 55 seats, that will put them in a great position to lead a majority government with SF and Independent Ireland. Would they rather that than power sharing with FG.

As I said, up until now they were united behind their fear of SF's raise in popularity. Now that's gone, how will it impact their relationship. Will we see more of the below over the next 6 months in an attempt to increase their support over the other.

https://www.thetimes.com/world/ireland-world/article/simon-harris-angers-fianna-fail-with-election-hubris-3llfjsl5n

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122266403#Comment_122266403

If FF can get 55 seats, that will put them in a great position to lead a majority government with SF and Independent Ireland. Would they rather that than power sharing with FG.

I'm not seeing any sign of this from opinon polls. All the signs are FG will be the larger party after the next GE. About the best FF could hope for is a dead heat. I'm sure FF as a party do aspire to the kind of scenario you envisage in the long term but Martin isn't looking to the long term. One more spell of joint authority with FG will suit him fine as the finale to his career…

Water John

It would be very silly to think SF can't turn around their poor showing, this time. Major heads in both FG and FF would be happy with a continuation of the present Govn't. Greens get the heat on climate issues eg carbon tax. Some lesser yokels, in FG and FF are mouthing off a bit about the Greens, but their voice in unimportant. FF, esp with MM will always go with FG rather than SF. O'Riordan may have a good point in LB, Soc Dems and Greens having some common aims and that grouping becoming the third leg of the next Govn't. The other option this group has is to side up is to side up with SF, PBP etc. in a full left alliance. Don't see that happening.

I don't think the Greens will have enough TDs to take FG + FF into safe numbers.

orangerhyme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122266470#Comment_122266470

I was thinking the same about Michael Martin. This is surely his last election and term in office.

Will that change his mindset?

Would he consider a coalition with FF and go for a border poll and a United Ireland?

At that age he'll be thinking about legacy and making history rather than keeping his seat.

Water John

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122266489#Comment_122266489

Don't worry, junior will step into that seat. He might even find a Commission job for McGrath to smooth the path. FF won't be rushing for a border poll. Cowen also gone to Europe, out of the way. They're quite content largely to be part of Govn't. Up to FG to stay ahead or near SF Dail numbers.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122266474#Comment_122266474

I don't think the Greens will have enough TDs to take FG + FF into safe numbers.

Every chance they'll down to one or two TDs. Catherine Martin's is their only 'safe' seat…

Rjd2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122266489#Comment_122266489

Interesting , never thought FF/SF/II was a runner but doesn't sound that crazy. He will have his eye on replacing Michael D I think after the next election.

If I had to bet FF/FG/II seems the obvious call IMO. The FF/SF/II just sounds to messy , not sure FF would be keen and II lean to right wing for SF I think.

Water John

Doubt if II want to be in Govn't but they'd be delighted to take the position from the Greens, their bogeymen.

blanch152

A wind-up thread.

Last I checked Fine Gael were the most popular political party in Ireland.

They went from third place in the 2020 general election to first place in the 2024 local and European elections.

If that is decline, some of the other parties would be gagging for it.

markodaly

14 years in power and still the most popular party in Ireland.

They must be doing something right.

ELM327

The opposition usually has a bump in the locals against a sitting government, especially a long term one, yet SF were barely out of single digit %. FG and by extension the current government were the largest grouping.

There's no decline. And furthermore I can't see any other grouping than FG+FF+Others in the next government.

blanch152

When you consider that for only the second time in the history of the state, Fine Gael got the largest vote in the local elections, the title of this thread is absurd.

Augme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122266470#Comment_122266470

I wasn't seeing any signs of SF getting 11% in the opinion polls either.

What are those signs? They were the most popular party after these elections in terms of first preference by less than 1% but in the locals ended up with less seats than FF.

I'd be amazed if Micheal Martin isn't thinking about having 5 years as Taoiseach vs splitting it. If offered one over the other I'd be fairly confident he would take the 5 years. I'm not saying he's guaranteed to be in that position but he must be thinking about the potential permutations and numbers.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122268819#Comment_122268819

A 9% drop in voted from their last European elections and just under 3% in the locals. That's a decline, you can't paint it any other way. In general elections, they've gone from 35% in 2011 to 21% in 2020. Again, that's a decline and it's not even debatable.

Augme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122267695#Comment_122267695

FG going in with Independent Ireland would be a very interesting decision. I don't know how thrilled their membership would be with that one.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122269588#Comment_122269588

2020 was the time for this thread, they have bottomed out and are on the rise again, back to first place, back to the vote going up.

If the thread was entitled "the rebirth of FG" or even " the halting of decline in FG", it would be more accurate.

Augme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122269603#Comment_122269603

They lost 9% on the Europeans. Their first preference in the Europeans was less than the 2020 General Election. Calling that a rebirth is being extremely generous (wrong, is a more accurate term realisticslly).

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122269588#Comment_122269588

I'd be amazed if Micheal Martin isn't thinking about having 5 years as Taoiseach vs splitting it. If offered one over the other I'd be fairly confident he would take the 5 years. I'm not saying he's guaranteed to be in that position but he must be thinking about the potential permutations and numbers.

For FF to have significantly more seats than SF after the general election would take a further seismic shift in the respective votes of both parties, on top of the decline SF has already experienced.

Unless and until general election opinion polls start reflecting the results of the local elections, I doubt Martin will be considering the scenario you envisage as a realistic prospect.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122269623#Comment_122269623

And they were still the biggest party? Correct me if I am wrong, but if FG are the biggest party from being third biggers party, but in decline, then surely the decline is greater in the other parties?

Augme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122270198#Comment_122270198

If judging it since 2011 general election or the 2016 election then FG's decline is the greatest. Local, Europeans and general elections have different dynamics and criteria so a cross measurement can be flawed too.

They've decline from their results in the last locals and Europeans. They've declined from the 2016 general election to the 2020 general election. The question is will they be able to stop the rot at the next general election.

PeadarCo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122270657#Comment_122270657

FG have declined but given how long they have been in government it would have been shocking if their vote hadn't gone down. If you are in opposition you can promise everything under the sun and you never have to worry about actually having to implement your ideas. You don't have that luxury in government and worse TDs are human, the government has limited resources and has to deal with people who don't want to see change in various areas of the state. That means in government mistakes will be made and every time you make a decision even if it's the correct one you are going to annoy someone in. All those things cost votes.

You are holding FG/any government party to a completely unrealistic standard if you don't expect their % of the vote to drop especially after how long FG have been in power.

The best way for FG to stop the rot would not to go into government after the next election. They can go into opposition and have the luxury of not having to make decisions like all opposition parties. From a FG point of view if the economy nosedives/anything like that even better.

The reason there is a thread on SF is because they have dipped in the polls/plateaued and in general not been able to take advantage of the benefits that come with being in opposition that you would expect. Especially given how long FG have been in power.

The reason for that is arguably because of the growth in popularity of independent candidates. A very diverse group that have taken votes from everyone.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122269588#Comment_122269588

On the face of it, yes its a decline. But you are ignoring the context.

They have been in power since 2011. There are teenagers alive today, who don't know any other government but one with FG in it.

Look across the water. The Tories have been in power about the same time and they are on the cusp of an electoral drubbing they have not experienced in their 190-year history.

Given all that context, and their support in the recent elections, they are looking OK.

If they do OK in the GE, they could be in for another 5 year term. That is 4 terms. No one has done that in Ireland since Dev in the 1930's.

Not bad for a party in decline.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122270657#Comment_122270657

You are just proving my point, the time for this thread was immediately after the 2020 general election.

The decline has stopped now, they are the biggest party in Ireland. The fact that they have become the biggest party, while in decline in your view, says more about general changes than about FG. You are missing the point.

FG's decline reflects the decline in all parties - Labour, FF, SF, Greens, FG and even PBP are all below historical highs, and to use your criteria, are all in decline. A relevant thread would look at increased fragmentation of the body politic, or the rise of independents.

In respect of declines, FF have had the biggest decline, but that occurred mainly in 2011, the next biggest decline is in SF who are down from 37% in the polls only 18 months ago to 11% in the local elections. The decline in FF is old news so no need for a thread, the decline in SF is recent and precipitous, so worthy of a thread in itself.

As for FG, if becoming the biggest party means the story is about your decline, there is something wrong with the thought process.

Clo-Clo

I see the SF decline thread has rattled a few people

Have FG declined since 2011 when they went into government? Yes

Have FG declined when after the last election they said they would go into opposition? No

Have they managed to still have two Taoiseach since a terrible election? Yes

Did they have a bad local election? No

Did they do massively better than predicted by all the so called experts? Yes

Bang away on the decline angle

Just watch the interviews after the local elections to see who is in decline, Simon laughing and joking. Other leaders struggling to find words and digging holes for themselves with stupid statements.

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122269558#Comment_122269558

At this point, I'd agree that the most likely outcome for the GE will be FG+FF plus others

The "others" won't be the Greens so the next likely grouping are either Independent Ireland or perhaps an SD/Labour combo.

The issue for II would appear to be their likely inability to present a consolidated face in negotiations and not being able to guarantee that their TD's will observe the Government whip.

Which makes me think an SD/Labour group or possibly just SD on their own will be the more likely 3rd arm of the next Government.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122275453#Comment_122275453

They could get there on their own if the transfers work out as well as in the local elections.

Then they could add on the Greens that are left (probably three to four) for extra margin.

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122275513#Comment_122275513

Can't see them getting there just between the two of them and suspect that they'll need maybe 7/8 seats to get to a Majority.

The Greens will be lucky to have 2 or maybe 3 seats at most so aren't really going to be at the races in terms of negotiations.

If the SD's are coming to the table with ~10 seats they will be in a very strong position to get a good deal in forming a government.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122277649#Comment_122277649

In the European elections, FF and FG had 41.2% between them, in the local elections it was 45.9%. In the latter, the Greens 3.6% gave the government parties a total of 49.5%, pretty much enough to win an overall majority.

However, as I pointed out the Euros were more disappointing, and the combined government vote would be 46.6%, which would probably fall short. Incidentally, at 5.4% in the Euros, the Greens are not far off their general election 2020 performance of 7.1%. A new leader and some momentum could see them keep 6/7 of the 12.

A lot to play for. It all depends on what Sinn Fein do. Getting some decent policies instead of none, toning down the UI rhetoric which has no immediate meaning to anyone and dumping the old men with links to terrorism and they might come back.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122277649#Comment_122277649

If the SD's are coming to the table with ~10 seats they will be in a very strong position to get a good deal in forming a government.

Could still be touch & go though. I susect this is what is behind the talk of Labour, Soc Dems & Greens forming a common front. Even if Labour & Greens have only four or five seats between them that could make the difference between a precarious majority and a comfortable one for FF/FG/Soc Dems

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122277958#Comment_122277958

The most interesting outcome of the local and European elections, is that if Sinn Fein continue to poll at 11%, a government of FF or FG with SD/Labour/Greens with some like-minded independent support is now mathematically possible. For example, Sinn Fein with 11%, FF with 18% and FG on 25% would make that scenario possible, with both FF and SF ending up in opposition. On the other hand, with SF on 14%, FF on 24%, government without FG is also possible with the SD/Labour in support. The Shinners on here would cry a river about being a mudguard though.

Politics suddenly got interesting again. Only six months ago FF/FG/other and FF/SF were the only two possible future governments. A lot more are now possible.