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New Irish Housing Starts - Way Below Target *Read OP for Mod Warning*

1246

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,447 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    They missed their own remarkably low target.. but hang on kids " nothing to see here " boggles, are you paying market rent or looking to buy a property? Nah, didn't think so... all is good when you're not the one being financially robbed ..



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,220 ✭✭✭prunudo


    And we're nowhere near building infrastructure to meet even half of that 90k. There's a serious risk of creating huge societal issues with our rapid population increases while not keeping up with services, from schools to health to public transport to water and electricity supply.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,447 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    Yes, with our welcome the world policy, i think they said 93,000 units a year for several years, lol...

    Look, with thie ridiculous tax windfall we have, spend it on housing and infrastructure... enough of the word leading" welfare for wasters "etc...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,461 ✭✭✭✭NIMAN


    With the huge surplus we are running each year, plus the Apple money, we will never have a better opportunity to fix some serious issues in this country, but we all know it's going to be a botch job and money will be wasted with nothing fixed at the end of it all.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,220 ✭✭✭prunudo


    I see it here in north wicklow, new build estates in all the towns and villages on the n11, but bus and train service's at capacity. N11 car park starting further south each month. Not enough local employment so people still commute back to the city. It's not sustainable.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,568 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    So we should all rant and rave on internet about sacking politicians.

    Doesn't really offer much to a debate does it?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,447 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    All it would take, is voters in mm and SH constituency, actually voting alternatives next election. Imagine the leader actually facing accountability...

    This is a strategy, going forward for all the failure here, not just housing...

    Also zero chance we get 40,000 completions this year, 35,000 would be a big increase on last year, my guess is 33,000 or so this year...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,912 ✭✭✭Rocket_GD


    You voted for this government yourself 2 months ago, yet are telling other to vote for alternatives….?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,079 ✭✭✭Floppybits


    As usual they got 2 sets of figures and went with the ones that made them look better rather than the ones that told the truth. They are at this all the time, dancing on the head of a pin with the wording so they can wriggle their way out of it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,220 ✭✭✭prunudo


    Look at the performance of Neal Richmond on the tonight show last night. Blatant misdirection, misinformation and political guff. These politicans are professional spoofers, and for too long the media have let them away with it.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,079 ✭✭✭Floppybits


    And then they will come out and accuse others of spreading misinformation or whatever when they are being held to account. It is sickening to see this them being allowed to carry on like this and media just letting them away with it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,320 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    How are the " media letting them away with it "? Who are you blaming for government politicians lying ?

    Next you will be blaming opposition parties for it !

    It's been all over the papers and every news program .

    The journalists get them on ask them questions get other commentators or opposition TDS to debate with them ..that is how it is put before the public in a non biased way .

    I even heard Sharon Ní Bheoláin saying to a commentator on Leader's Questions today in front of a FF TD..

    " so MM did mislead the Dáil then about these numbers ?"

    Ask the questions, investigate , present the facts, allow debate .

    That's all they can do . It's not their job to stand there and tell Ministers off or write long opinion pieces ..that is the non journalistic types who can't be trusted to be non biased.

    It"s up to Mr and Mrs Public to watch listen and make up their own minds after all the facts have been presented and probing pointed questions asked .

    If more people had watched and read proper MS news media and thought a bit more about instead of being fed nonsense by cute hoor independents on Social Media , maybe we wouldn't have ended up with this shower in government again , backed up by the same group of cute hoor independents who have now got their pay out for sowing distrust in other political parties .

    That's who I blame for this mess . Eejits who voted for them and now blame everyone except themselves .

    .And those that seek to undermine all the opposition at every turn . We need the opposition who have more than shown their mettle over the last few weeks.

    If people like MM and Darragh O'Brien are not called to account in the Dáil where will we be ?

    This government will think they are not accountable to the people anymore .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,447 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    The primary problem is the unbelievably low standard that run for government here, the fact that the opposition, can't oust the failure that is FFG, tells you something...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,447 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    Rte is the establishment mouthpiece, when ffg make decisions on how much the gravy train in rte should be funded and it's eye-watering amounts each year. That gets impartiality does it ? Lol!!! The notion of an impartial media, is beyond comedy. It doesn't and can't exist...



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,703 ✭✭✭hometruths


    If more people had watched and read proper MS news media and thought a bit more about instead of being fed nonsense by cute hoor independents on Social Media , maybe we wouldn't have ended up with this shower in government again , backed up by the same group of cute hoor independents who have now got their pay out for sowing distrust in other political parties .

    Out of interest, which "proper MS news media" were you reading that you thought were favourable to the idea of a change of government from FFG?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 920 ✭✭✭StormForce13


    An Phoblacht and the Socialist Wurker, methinks! Maybe with a bit of Una Mullally and Ivanna "Labour in power will build 100,000 houses a year" Bacik thrown in for light relief.

    On the main topic of this discussion, given that Health and Housing are the two constant issues that even the most intellectually stunted TD on the Opposition Benches can embarrass the government on, it's hard to believe that the government isn't desperate to see the numbers of both housing start ups and completions increasing as quickly as possible.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,912 ✭✭✭Rocket_GD


    No it’s because people like yourself vote for them and then 2 months later rant away about how crap they are and that you want them out. It’s beyond comprehension how you can be so “angry” with them and then go out and give them your vote telling them they’ve done a good job.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,320 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Everything I read and heard over the last 20 to 30 odd years ! Longer probably but let's not go there ..

    And no to the other one , I don't read an Phoblacht etc. I said MSM. Do you not know what that is ? Obviously not or best avoided for FFG, eh, supporters

    Might be too stressful. .

    Not everybody can be put aside in a little labelled box .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,067 ✭✭✭JVince


    Thankfully it's not the abject failure that Northern Ireland is on housing where LESS than 5,000 new homes were completed last year - isn't sinn fein part of the Northern Ireland government?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,320 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Yes indeed. But can you tell me what part Westminster has to play in that , not to mention all the downtime of that government over its lifetime due to DUP non participation ?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,320 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    That was on RTE tonight 😜

    Brilliant stuff . As long as someone doesn't find a way to slow it down, make it exponentially expensive , tie it up with regulation ..



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,349 ✭✭✭spillit67


    SF were more than happy to rock up at social housing getting started up there to take the credit.

    Many of the policy elements of EOB’s housing plan could have been road tested up there under Minister Hargey. Of course it took him over 4 years in a lab to come out with his own one so perhaps that’s the excuse.

    The blame for Westminster and Power Sharing is really funny there btw. The Labour Party down here were afforded none of the same excuses when we had no fiscal sovereignty throughout most of their time in government and also were in a coalition.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,461 ✭✭✭✭NIMAN


    Well if any nation can do that, it'll be us.

    Modular homes, remember them? There was a company on rte news one night, 1 bed fully turnkey were €69k, 2 or 3 bed were €99. Everyone was saying how great they were.

    2 years later, we hear the modular homes the government delivered cost something like 450k.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,320 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Sorry what century you talking about there ? Not sure my memory extends back that far !

    To add , don't mean to be flip

    I defer to you on this because I don't know tbh.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,341 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    41K and 50K aren't possible given the amount of available tradespeople we have, availability of material and Id wager amount of planning submissions going in. One off housing is simply too expensive as is the construction of larger estates etc.

    The system is completely screwed.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,320 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Yep again , exactly what I was thinking Niman .

    We have to have some hope though .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,341 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    They would vote for change for two reasons:

    1. They had kids living at home with no sign of moving out or with a future that may involve immigrating.
    2. There was a viable option available to vote for that had a solid plan with more than just sound bites and rhetoric to vote for.

    People are afraid to try something different because that 'something different' hasn't done any better in the other jurisdiction they operate in and have beaten themselves from the inside over the last 48 months and that something different haven't provided anything in the way of solid plans.

    Surprisingly things could always be worse and it's that risk aversion coupled with the above that keep the incumbents the incumbents.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,349 ✭✭✭spillit67


    I think we’ll end up fairly close actually.

    The person I’d trust most on this is JP McCarthy and he estimated 30k-33k this time last year. He used the Dublin sites actually under construction as his metric (not commencements). That’s the only really good data we have, which unfortunately has not been updated to Q3 of FY24 (my guess is that the waiver has caused havoc). Overall the data showed around 17.5k houses and apartments being built in Dublin by then, which was up by 2.5k from the end of 2023 which is what he based his 2024 number on. The market shifted a good bit away from the larger Build To Rent schemes in Dublin that we saw getting completed in 2022 and 2023 with Help to Buy taking up much of the supply. A lot of that isn’t in Dublin. So guess is that therefore that the proportion of new builds for Dublin vs. the rest of the country has shifted a bit to outside of Dublin, which makes those Dublin numbers more encouraging.

    JP also thought it would he around 33k by November, and there was some clear noise in the industry that ESB and Irish Water were delaying things getting completed. Also to avail of the waiver, the units commenced must be completed by the end of 2026 so developers can’t sit on it too long. Add to that that there has been more and more hiring in construction whilst commercial has declined (although not all of this is residential driven) and my take is we will be closer to 40k this year than 35k. Of course I could be wrong on that, just stiching together bits of info we have as the data is really not good enough.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,349 ✭✭✭spillit67


    50k maybe but I doubt it on 40k.

    Payroll data shows we had 10k more working in construction in June 2024 than the end of 2022. Commercial activity has been dwindling and whilst people aren’t just transferring to residential as there’s a lot more going on, there is almost certainly a continued growth in workers supporting residential construction. PMI data on residential construction has been strong the last year.



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