New Irish Housing Starts - Way Below Target *Read OP for Mod Warning*

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123136729#Comment_123136729

…yes im aware theres no 'evil plan', but its now clearly obvious what happens when a more privatised/financialised approach yields, which is a complex dynamic of which outputs a highly dysfunctional market, hyper inflated prices and serious supply problems, again, its a 'dynamic', of which very little overall control occurs in maintaining a functioning market, again, ireland is not the only country currently experiencing this problem, as this is now occurring in many countries that have attempted this approach…

…and again, where is your evidence that this more privatised/financialised approach actually works, as we ve been trying this for many decades now, which has just yielded the above!

…yes, taxes are probably gonna have to increase in order to help resolve this problem, as again, critical financialised tools such as credit creation from the financial sector, i.e. banks, is in fact one of the main causes of our inflated prices, i.e. the more credit based money that is introduced into asset markets such as, and in particular related to property, the price inflation occurs.

…increaseing taxes also provides the state with an ability to borrow more via bond markets, i.e. helps to maintain bond market stability, in order to do so…..

…but dont worry, increasing taxes and borrowing is very unlikely to occur anytime soon, so on we go into the 30's with this problem, which will probably just be much much worse….

Boggles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123136779#Comment_123136779

I just gave you an example of how the private market churned out housing at high volume. The lack of guard rails were a political decision.

So now it is up to you to give me some sort of tangible evidence that governance will be able to achieve similar.

The whole narrative of the conversion is around volume.

Jack Daw

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123136632#Comment_123136632

It may not be cost effective, it's irrelevant whether it is or not as I said earlier housing needs to be considered as infrastructure and something we need in order for the country to function effectively.

Seeing as the private sector has failed to deliver the amount of housing we need , maybe we need to look for another way.

The government should also reduce VAT/Tax on building materials etc to help the construction sector deliver more housing more cheaply.

Government won't do any of this though as they don't care about the issue as the over 50's don't want houses built a it lowers their feeling of being wealthy if their house price falls due to increased supply and it's the over 50's who are voting to keep FF and FG in power.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123136811#Comment_123136811

…and again, yes, a more private sector lead failure, again, during the previous boom, output maxed out at 90,000 units per year, did this lead to reduced price! nope, prices simply increased, and increased rapidly at that! oh and it also lead to a significant amount of houses built in the wrong places, ghost estates, and an under supply in other places, particularly in the dublin region! again, all private sector lead!

evidence, no problem…..

before this modern age of financialsation approach to housing, many countries, including ireland, were in fact able to maintain functioning housing markets, with issues of course, since providing such critical infrastructure is extremely complex, no matter what approach is used…

…its also important to note, ireland was in fact a much more impoverished country compared to what it is today, and yet still, the state was able to provide this critical need, arguably better than current….

…then of course theres countries such as singapore, whereby the majority of land and property is in fact still in public ownership, and do they have a serious housing crisis!

..also noting a large proportion of businesses in singapore are in fact also in state ownership, but thats another matter….

…one of the reasons why many fail to realise these facts is that the move to a more privatised/financiasled model, has in fact greatly benefited them, in regards gaining access to the ability to own such assets, and to watch their value grow, and in many cases, exponentially in this time, with very little effort in doing so, i.e. policy has backed them all the way, throughout the majority of their time in such markets!

Fr Tod Umptious

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123136298#Comment_123136298

At the time of the crash and for a good few years following it the government didn't have much money to spend on building houses, the country was totally squeezed financially and there were cutbacks left right and centre, austerity was the word of the day.

Plus there was no housing crisis.

Many young people had gone to Australia or Canada and many of the Eastern European migrants who arrived during the tiger had their money made and went home.

Rents and house prices collapsed.

There was an abundance of rental properties available.

Boggles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123136824#Comment_123136824

I must have missed that meeting, when did infrastructural costs become irrelevant?

Government won't do any of this though as they don't care about the issue as the over 50's don't want houses built a it lowers their feeling of being wealthy if their house price falls due to increased supply and it's the over 50's who are voting to keep FF and FG in power.

Huh? People in their 50s the very cohort who would have adult children trying to get on the property ladder and in a lot of instances help finance it.

Have you evidence for this claim?

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123136911#Comment_123136911

…during the crash, the beginning of our current crisis was in fact noted by respected commentators such as tom and ronan lyons, particularly in the dublin region, so effectively, the writing was actually on the walls during this period, thankfully our state effectively reacted to this knowledge, preventing an even bigger problem!

…oh and during covid, when bond rates fell, and were guaranteed by the ecb, our then government decided to take on sufficient amounts of debt, at these reduced rates, i.e. refinancing previous debts at these new lower rates, preventing our housing crisis from further escalation, so, go ffg!

Jack Daw

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123136944#Comment_123136944

We all know it's the case, there isn't going to be direct evidence for this because there aren't reports drawn up which show evidence for every attitude that exists in society but we know they exist.

You asked whether the government could build houses in a cost effective manner.I said it didn't matter whether they could or not what matters is they get built.The exact reason we don;t have enough houses being built is building houses isn't cost effective for the private sector, that's why the public sector needs to step in.Of course they shouldn't look at it as an opportunity to piss money away but even if it isn't 100% financially sensible and there is a big profit to be had it would be socially sensible to build houses.

Technically the health service isn't cost effective in any way as it would be far cheaper to let a large numbers of people die rather than try and keep them alive but we do it anyway because it's good for society.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123137008#Comment_123137008

…the longer we play this game, not only will be see a rapid increase in social dysfunctions, but eventually we ll begin to serious a rapid increase in economic dysfunctions to!

Boggles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123137008#Comment_123137008

We all know it's the case

Well no we don't, because primarily it's logically for the reasons I pointed out.

Boggles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123136885#Comment_123136885

before this modern age of financialsation approach to housing, many countries, including ireland, were in fact able to maintain functioning housing markets

We have always had a "financialsation approach to housing"

Since the 60s privately built homes have dwarfed social homes.

But at no point in time have a government of this country been able to produce enough homes without the private sector.

The idea they could even attempt to do it now at the scale required with current building standards and available pool of workers is fanciful.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123137757#Comment_123137757

…and again, having a functioning housing market, is in fact critical in having a functioning society and economy, by maintaining our current extreme market dysfunction, induces serious social dysfunctions, including a rapid rise in mental health issues, addiction problems, relationship breakdown, and other serious social dysfunctions such as a rise in particular crimes…

..so by not doing everything possible to try rectify our current mess, this in turn leads to a rapid rise in the cost of living for all, and extreme dysfunction within other critical sectors such as legal, healthcare and other welfare sectors, which in turn costs you, the taxpayer, even more in the long run…..

…these are the facts!

Boggles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123137805#Comment_123137805

Why are you starting your sentences with 3 full stops?

Either way I have no idea why you replied to my post with that.

Some conspiracy about people in their 50s wanting to have less houses built to enrich themselves, something something. Illogical nonsense.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123137803#Comment_123137803

…and again, wrong!

…the more modernised approach to financialisation of our property markets only truly began globally in the 80's and 90's, ireland was slightly late to this game, as it took us some time to deal with our economic woes of the 70's and 80's, but by god did we make up for it in the 2000's, and the rest is history!

…oh and this approach hasnt changed much since then, its still the same fire(finance, insurance and real estate) sector gig, as the thias would say, 'same same'!

Boggles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123137820#Comment_123137820

	1920s	1930s	1940s	1950s	1960s	1970s	1980s	1990s	2000-07
Social Housing	6,920	38,450	20,768	52,500	29,124	61,953	42,893	20,184	46,926
Private Housing	10,910	31,657	37164	49,188	64,835	176,230	182,203	275,186	468,318

…and again, wrong!

……………….it's not my opinion.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123137813#Comment_123137813

really! so very few objections are coming from current home owners, many in their 50's, really!

you ll actually find many current government supporters and voters are in fact also current homeowners, i.e. supporting government backed and implemented property and land polices!

conspiracy! i think not!

Boggles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123137839#Comment_123137839

Why would people in their 50s actively support a policy that makes it harder for their adult children to get on the property ladder?

Conspiracy Theory nonsense.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123137828#Comment_123137828

…and again, many previous generation builds would in fact have been state backed financially and resourced, modern financialised approaches preferring more private sector backed methods, via credit creation from the financial sector, i.e. banks, again, credit being critical to help inflate markets overall…..

…many previous generations were state supported in gaining access to land required and finance, again, modern approaches more so leaning towards more private sectors methods, this in tun empowers critical private sectors such as the fire sectors, during the process, enabling more severe speculative elements into our markets, i.e. exactly what we re now dealing with, i.e. more extreme forms of property and land speculation!

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123137846#Comment_123137846

…really! yes some property owners do indeed realise the serious faults and failures in this thinking, and act accordingly, but some dont, and strangely, some just simply dont care!

howiya

So the 40k figure was based on estimates from Deutsche Bank and Cairn Homes according to Micheal Martin. Ignore the CSO, Central Bank, ESRI etc, these lads know better….

Boggles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123137856#Comment_123137856

I have no idea what any of that has to do with the ratio of social to private builds since the 60s something you said was not fact.

So it is a fact, they just financed differently?

What you seem to eluding to is the opening up of competition to foreign banks?

As the narrative is volume, the net result of that was the highest house competitions on record.

The most the state ever produced in social housing was 6100 units a year on average throughout the 70s.

The private market produced 17,600 per annum for the same period.

The idea the state would be able to produce the required amount of housing going forward does not even have a toe nail in reality, it never really did.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123137896#Comment_123137896

Jesus there's disingenuous and then there's this.

What is the per capita ratio of houses produced in that year? It's a massive bit higher than now that's for sure

Boggles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123138341#Comment_123138341

It's not a year, the chart is grouped by decade.

The number is an average.

What exactly is confusing you?

The 1970s saw the government build more social houses than other decade. Including the 80s, 90s and 00s where the population would have been higher.

Per capita ratio is not relevant to the point I made and one you seem to have grossly misunderstood.

Goldengirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123135311#Comment_123135311

I would agree with a lot of what you said there except "those in their 40 upwards ".

Maybe until your kids are a certain age , but once they are and should be moving out is when the worm turns !

Idbatterim

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123135311#Comment_123135311

I agree. I woudnt be surprised, the government collapses before its run its term, several things could well bring it down, housing an obvious one. Possibly then SF and a coalition of the left form OR SF and FF. When the public will not tolerate another FFG government…

If its a coalition of SF and the left, well… They are going to have to grasp nettles that the current crowd dont want to , if they genuinely want to increase output. If / when, that doesnt happen, it will be fascinating to see what happens. The whole rotten to the core system , needs to be torn down. But there is no way the establishment, and that means of all them in the Dail, will want to touch that, with a barge poll…

Idbatterim

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123137878#Comment_123137878

MM and Simon Harris shoud resign over the housing scandal, thats simply the biggest, of a litany of failures… What I cannot comprehend here, is how , they reckon it actually has nothing to do with them… There is zero accountability, leadership, vision here… MM and Harris, seem to think its just one big laugh, swap power… Lie to the public, appalling management of the country and reckless mismanagement of the countries finances…

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123139017#Comment_123139017

They are hardly going to resign over it.

The govt hit the housing targets for 2023/2024 overall.

More homes need to be built, I think we all agree on that & we should see around 40k built this year, based on the number of homes under construction.

Mr. teddywinkles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123139005#Comment_123139005

The only thing iv found with recent governments and is the only thing they're really good at is arse covering or blaming some other imaginary crisis or group so don't be suprised if they go full term

Boggles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123139017#Comment_123139017

MM and Simon Harris shoud resign over the housing scandal, thats simply the biggest, of a litany of failures

Calm down, they missed their target last year by 3,000. With starts they will exceed it this year.

Overall the life of the last government exceeded their targets.

You could argue the targets are too low, but targets have to be realistic. The opposition bleating out they would build 50k homes is just noise.

The stark reality is, if they want to increase output at least some of the guard rails put in after the last crash will have to be taken down and a lot money will have to be diverted from the public purse to subsidise the building industry.

NIMAN

40k houses may be completed in 2025, but the dogs in the street know that is nowhere near enough.

We need at least 60k per year. Didn't Davy yesterday even say 90k.