FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2024/2025 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

Also the GEM has consistently been giving us snow for next Tuesday as it develops a unstable cold pool which is a lot stronger than the other models.

LONG RANGE

There has been much talk over the past week about potential snow and severe cold heading our way. Analysis of the US weather model (GFS) suggests such an outcome is unlikely, at least up to mid-month.

Forecasting becomes less reliable beyond the 3-5 day window, but trends can be picked up when cross checking successive runs of weather models.

In a review of the last 5 runs of the GFS using the Midlands on midday, Monday February 17th as the source point, our mid-month weather looks like bringing average temperatures for the time of year (5-8c) and relatively low rainfall totals.

Ireland will find itself on the boundary between Atlantic low-pressure systems and high pressure to our northeast, a meteorological no man’s land that would produce rather benign conditions overall. Any rainfall would likely be restricted to the western half of Ireland with drier conditions further east.

The good news is that this week’s spell of weather will allow for good drying conditions which should continue for much of Ireland into much of the following week. The threat of Atlantic storms tracking across Ireland over the next fortnight is presently low as high pressure inhibits their progress eastward (see GFS panels below for February 17th).

The above source point of 17th February will be updated accordingly in the coming days to see if there is a trend towards a change to the outlook.

Largely dry and settled with cold nights is the main theme of our weather for the next 7 days at least. High pressure to our east is expected to drift as we move beyond the weekend.It may become more unsettled after mid-week next week, particularly in the western half of Ireland. The red line for the relevant graphs below represents the mean (average) of all 32 members of the GFS weather model.

To look further ahead it still does look like it is all to play for in mid to late February with a wide range of options being thrown out by the models. Of course it is all FI but very interesting watching to see how it will all pan out. All models are in general agreement up to the middle of next week however then the differences start to emerge.

As posted this morning the 0z ECM had the holy grail but was very much an outlier, and the 12z has us stuck in a no man's land but with heights still very far north. The GFS on the other hand wants to bring the Atlantic back as it collapses the northern high fairly quickly at the end of next week.

Unfortunately I think the GFS will probably be right but when there are heights moving that far north who knows what will happen.

Tonight's operational run of the GFS has a bullseye low pressure system (951hPa) over Ireland in 13 days from now, which would really announce the return of the Atlantic in this neck of the woods. However, the model's 31 other members eo not follow suit, thereby leaving the operational run without any support for such an outcome.

"Go Away. Rain, rain, go away. Come again another d̶a̶y̶ month."

A cold whopper of a Gem. The gfs has us in the Atlantic sink

kma still showing. I'll do a breakdown on gfs shortly and will post

A shift away from the Atlantic with better heights in the GEFS mean. I see the USA weather community getting very upset that their cold chances are slipping. When they get excited about snow opportunities, it usually precipitates an Atlantic onslaught for us. Who knows. All is far from determined as of now. 50/50

Follow US wx accounts on Twitter. They sound like us today when we see things going belly up

There has been a shift toward sustaining the current dry spell into the middle of next week and beyond in this evening's weather model output. Prospects of something a little colder later next week into the following week have also increased but the likelihood of such an outcome remains around 50/50. The other possible outcome brings cloudier conditions with rain at times, particularly to the western half of Ireland.

Hope that at least the wind and rain stays away for as long as possible for what remains of this winter......

But nearly everywhere in the US gets better summers than us, because of the fe**in Atlantic!