FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2024/2025 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

almostthere12

It ain’t called the pub run for nothing, the gfs 18z comes up with the goods, it will be interesting to see where it sits in the ensembles!

TTLF

It is quite frustrating though, even in 2 days the GFS has been showing roughly -5/-6 uppers with precipitation for the E coast, but it just isn't cold enough, it'll mostly be sleety rain and by the looks of the temperatures associated with the uppers, it seems to be a similar situation to Britain with some low-lying mild sector making it too warm to fall as snow…

Lets hope the models pull through in the coming week, they seem to be having a real issue with the LP shooting out from the Atlantic. Very weird that the CFS / KMA etc all show this continuing, while the GFS and ECM either fail, or their OP run is an insane outlier. We've had several extreme outlier OP runs lately, very strange.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123143064#Comment_123143064

My best guess as to why models are jumpy is the blocking going on in the northeast Pacific and North American northwest. Heights are a lot more extensive than modelled a few days ago and the data from the downstream effect of this may just be feeding into models. Looking at the ensembles and there is an 18c swing in the members for 8 days time. Some sub -10c 850s in there.

ps….ensembles not following the cold op and control runs on gfs. Onwards to tomorrow

Gonzo

The 18z is an outlier towards the end of it's run.

almostthere12

Another very nice gfs run this morning but like the 18z it is at the bottom of the ensembles.

pureza

I think it’s inevitable isn’t it,no matter what specifics are in FI that if that high sticks around or meanders a bit more north than south,that an injection of polar air will come,the longer it stays,the bigger the likelihood

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123143614#Comment_123143614

agree. A lot of sub minus 10c members appearing too which shows the potential.

TheMilkyPirate

Seems like there's been quite a few OP runs with little to no support from their ensembles the last week or so, any particular reason? Would it be due to the warming.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123143925#Comment_123143925

It's annoying, majority of the GFS operational runs over the past few days have been very much cold outliers with very little support. The 6z rolling out now and it looks to be closer to a mild outlier. Majority of GFS members going for average temperatures mid month, nothing too mild or cold.

WolfeEire

Analysis of the past 13 runs of the GEFS for a Midlands location at midday on Monday 17th February indicates the model is leaning toward average or slightly below temperatures and relatively settled/dry conditions, at least for the Midlands.

Some of the less-observed models (KMA, CFS) are pushing for a colder spell of weather, while the the GFS position is shared by the main models (ECM, GEM).

esposito

The models are such a head wreck.

I fear we’ll just end up in no man’s land (coldish temps but not cold enough for snow) despite the northern blocking. We need a big slice of luck for proper cold to come our way.

Oíche Na Gaoithe Móire

February is such a short little month too. A quarter of it over now.

By about the 12-14 February you'd like something solid to show.

I've a feeling around the 22nd we'll have signs of cold at month's end. The first week of March will bring snow to some. That week is often a cold wintry time for many years now.

WolfeEire

Mixed operational runs this afternoon. Big spread in the senembles. A 20c spread in 850s for this day week.

It's at this point the ECM needs to stand up and say "right, boys. This is how you do it"

pureza

The gefs control run from Day 8 shows how peachy the direction of travel slowly appears to be turning ,a 2010esque/2018esque feed If ever I saw one approaching?

bazlers

That'll do Pig, that'll do.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123145541#Comment_123145541

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123145507#Comment_123145507

It's at this point the ECM has stood up and said "right, boys. This is how you do it"

bazlers

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123145672#Comment_123145672

Its a thing of beauty Wolfe, seen plenty of day 15 beauts though to turn to Shrek! A nation holds its breath!

Oíche Na Gaoithe Móire

Good to see. You'd hope it happens in that time frame. I know 2018 was a week to 10 days later. But the earlier the better if you're looking for lying snow.

The sheer volume in 2018 meant plenty of lying snow. But if say Gonzo's area got 3 inches of snow. It has a much better chance of staying on the ground longer at 17 February than a fortnight later at 3 March. You basically gain an hour of daylight in a fortnight. The sun angle is 25° on 17 February. The sun has climbed to 30° by 3rd March. It's so much stronger.

.Donegal.

ECM decaying front approaching from the west stalls over Connacht and disintegrates delivers a dusting for there which melts fairly quick next Friday. Apart from that a dusting for Antrim.

Kermit.de.frog

JMA has a belter of an evolution out in cuckoo land.

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123145744#Comment_123145744

Beyond 240 hrs the ECM heads for the freezer with snow showers in to eastern counties. Not bad at all.

nacho libre

Yes, the ECM is dangling the carrot. This looks like a robust block so any model bringing back the Atlantic might not be correct. The longer the block holds on the greater the chance of something like what the latest ECM shows happening. This winter hasn't really panned out the way a lot of seasonal models were suggesting. It would be great to get a snowy easterly- let the east have a a few days of snow showers then a two day snow dump courtesy of a stalling front for much of the country as the Atlantic fails to win out. Carlsberg don't do the perfect cold spells, but if they did...

TheMilkyPirate

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123145784#Comment_123145784

Agreed this is only going one way

Kermit.de.frog

Not time to get excited but the trend is good at least. The run up to the BFTE was characterised by incremental upgrades with each day. Might we see a repeat? A long way to go.

rooney30

Ok, let’s keep the popcorn on hold for another day or two so.

bazlers

Is it too much to ask for tightly packed contours stretching from the depths of the Eurals!!!

WolfeEire

KMA still has a plentiful supply of nose candy

TheMilkyPirate

If this comes off the KMA is the new standard 😂

Ros4Sam24

Gfs 18z quite a good run with cold beating the Atlantic and some heavy snow for the SE in FI

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123141712#Comment_123141712

an example from tonight. Plenty of talk in the last week of snowstorms but it has fallen through