FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2024/2025 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

ouch….

Thats probably an understatement.

Theres little doubt that a many junctions and connections will have been stressed by Darragh and the recent freeze, but not yet broken. Storm Éowyn this weekend will break a lot of those.

Might be an idea to ask the French crews to come over ahead of time, while the sea state is still good for ferries crossing.

Right over us with a pressure of 941 on ME chart after the news warnings likely stay up to date he said

Did the CFS forsee the last cold spell? The last GFS run was not without interest for the first week of February either.

Only 6 weeks to go until an easterly. Exciting….

edit: Oops, i see @Gonzo got there before me.

I'd much prefer this CFS for March thank you very much - though yes I would prefer it in May-September.

Hints of a Scandi High developing.

Now if the purple to our NW could just pi** off that would help things greatly.

On satellite imagery, Storm Herminia looks a little like what you would get if you ordered Storm Éowyn on Temu.
📸 NOAA

It will deepen to an impressive 950hPa but its strongest winds will remain well offshore. It will become somewhat of a flabby mess by Monday as ridging heights to our east inhibit the eastward progression of the system and it fills in slowly. We will be left with variable winds and scattered outbreaks of rain.
📸Arpege model via Meteociel.fr

That said, forecast rainfall and wind gusts do bring this system into Status Yellow Weather warning territory.
📸 Latest info via Met Éireann

The greatest impact of this storm will be to potentially bring down structures or trees already weakened by Storm Éowyn and also to inhibit ongoing recovery and utility repair works. There may be spot flooding in southern counties and higher totals on the mountains of the south will swell river levels.
📸 Harmonie model via Meteociel.fr

Beyond midweek, drier and brighter conditions will develop as high pressure builds from Ireland's south.

Hallelujah 🙌

Sorry for posting in wrong forum mods! 😕 Thought was up to 120.

Some murmurings of a cold easterly wind becoming established over Ireland and Britain by the turn of the month and into early February 🧊❄️.

Presently, there is minimal support for a 'Beast from the East' type scenario over the next 10-14 days as a result of a Scandinavian high pressure system pulling in cold air from the continent.

There will be a E-SE component to our weather as high pressure nudges north during midweek and eventually settles to the southeast of Britain by the weekend. Drier, cooler and brighter conditions are expected from midweek up to Sunday-Monday (2-3 Feb).

Thereafter looks more uncertain as the Atlantic attempts to reassert itself. The general consensus is that it will succeed. The below output from the US GFS model illustrates the anticipated rise in high pressure, and the brief cool down and drier spell from midweek to about Sunday. The red line signifies the average of all 30 perturbation (members) of the model.
📸Meteociel

Of note in the pressure graph is the significant pressure drop associated with tomorrow's low pressure system (Storm Herminia) pushing east across Ireland and Britain.

The model suggests that high pressure will be located close to Ireland, but that the Atlantic will be right on our doorstep by the end of next week.

The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) Index is a useful barometer for assessing how active the Atlantic is. It is forecasted to remain in high positive territory through the beginning of February which is a good indicator that a cold easterly setup in Ireland is highly unlikely to materialise. A small number easterly setups have developed in a positive NAO scenario down through the decades, but such an occurrence is rare.
📸NOAA

Put your money on the 'Pest from the West' and Ireland and Britain slowly returning to an Atlantic zonal setup after a brief lull. The below GFS panel featuring upper air temps (approx 1500m) for 10 days time is overwhelmingly backing such a scenario. Temperatures at that altitude are a good indicator of the likely weather to be expected at ground level.
📸Meteociel

Anything stormy/messy on the horizon?

Seeing forecasts hinting at something potentially towards the end of next week?

interesting similarities .. no BFTE but even a February frost would be welcome considering it’s been a spring month for some years now.

kma is fridge freezer territory in its latter stages and some others flirt at colder weather. I will have a proper look tomorrow but the general consensus is for Ireland to be sitting in no man's land between the Atlantic and colder or cooler air to our east. This setup would bring rain at times to the north and west but drier as you head toward the southeast. Medium to long term looks zonal.