Russia-Ukraine War (continuing)

At what cost to Ukraine? They were invaded.

If Russia withdraws and takes no land then fair enough. I can't see Putin agreeing to that though.

The issue is that many of us pragmatists, and in some cases students of history. We know that an attempt to get "Peace at any cost" can have a couple of paths to it.

If the intention is to get Putin to completely withdraw to the internationally recognised 1991 border, then this is not "bad". To get him to do it without further loss of life goes from "not bad" to "bloody fanstastic". But as a pragmatist I don't see that happening for the simple reason that the War in itself is ironcally what is keeping Putin "safe" in the short term. If the war ended with no gain at all, the fabric of the Russian Federation would reset back to 1919 with his head on the block for doing it. So he won't do it willingly, he would have to be forced into it. Thus the need to support Ukraine's defence.

As a student of history, it is also important to note that "Peace at any cost" goes into the territory of appeasment. Trump might want to wave about a peace treaty and claim credit, but then my mind goes straight to the image of Chamberlan doing the exact same thing. The pre-war British PM famously exited an aircraft with a fluttering scrap of paper in his hand to declare "Peace in our time!" while trumpeting his success in talking down Herr Hitler from wanting more than the Sudetenland. The Czechs know what happened soon after that, and world is still dealing with the aftermath nearly a century later.

I would love peace and the end of this war, but it must be real peace. An enduring peace where the Russian Federation must respect the borders of its neighbours and where those neighbours can engage with the world however they wish, and for the respective benefit of peaceloving people. Not a peace based on a worthless "deal" designed to do little than flatter the egos of corrupt men who don't care for anyone else.

He's threatened Russia about as much as he's threatened Denmark with his remarks as far as I can tell.

The problem with the threat is that other than a small amount of fertilizer, animal feed, inorganic material like tin, and machinery, Russia currently exports very little to the U.S. that could be subject to tariffs.

The U.S. imported a total of $2.8 billion worth of these products from Russia in 2024

I'd say Putin is sh1tting himself

Curious how the Trumpists are spinning this 'tough talk'. Surely it must be obvious even to them how lame and empty it is…

I got to agree with that. He simply doesn't have the attention span to stick with it and he knows it means nothing to those who turn up at his rallies. He'll be back to attacking the gays and mexican kids in between rounds of golf.

Would it be fair to say he's the first US Lifestyle President?

"The U.S. imported a total of $2.8 billion worth of these products from Russia in 2024"

That's still $2.8 billion less that Putin would then have to spend on his war and that adds up year by year. I don't see how you can not consider that a large amount. The less fund putin has to spend on his war with Ukraine the better.

Because it is not 2.8 billion going into Russian state coffers. It is only the tax so a lot less than 2.8 billion.

True. But what happens to those companies when their US market dries up? Employees? Russian equivalent of PRSI etc - swap that out for another one on the dole line. Its the domino/ house of cards effect - the question is when/ what/ which is the card that brings it all down. Personally I think we're still a long way off that as Russia does not operate as a normal economy or democracy. They still have markets in China, India, Middle East, Africa, South East Asia and South America. Won't be as lucrative as Europe and North America, but it'll drag things out a bit longer. Whereas if it was a Western Nation behaving like Russia, the govt would haven been given a swift boot out of power long ago. Not out of moral superiority, but because we can, and nobody likes queuing for bread and having f**k all spending power.

I wonder if his nonsense about Greenland made hime re-think his attitude towards Russia. His remarks this time seemed to get more attention than the first time around, maybe this time someone explained other countries that have interests in what happens with Greenland.

You would think that it would start to dawn on Putin and friends of Russia that

1. Trump has 300bn reasons not to play nice with Russia
2. He promised to drill baby drill hence keeping Russian oil and gas of markets, this helps both his domestic and Saudi buddies
3. Direct tarrifs won’t amount to much but continuing to target Russian tankers, pipelines and banks helps make America great
4. military industrial complex won’t want their profits gone, especially likes of Boeing which is already teetering
5. Russia weak and trump can smell the blood in the water

Edit: another one for the pile

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/davos-nato-chief-rutte-reaffirms-need-step-up-support-ukraine-2025-01-23/

Edit2; as to prove my point

Oil falling now (not good for Russia)

saw a video last night of a Russian soldier approaching an injured Ukrainian soldier lying on the ground. After a brief conversation the Russian slowly pushed his knife into the Ukrainians neck. Absolute scum.

He doesn’t need tarrifs to bring down the Russian economy (tho wouldn’t hurt to apply more pressure)

Tightening what Biden started would

1. Lower Russian slice of the energy market (allowing US and Saudis to fill the hole)
2. Directly strangle the main source of income Putin is using for the war

article above articulates this well

I would imagine that Trump is completely incapable of understanding how this aspect of the conflict - the Russians' utter contempt for their Ukrainian POWs, the kidnapping of Ukrainian children, the theft and destruction of symbols and artefacts of Ukrainian culture - how forgetting all of this is not something that can be achieved with a quickly negotiated ceasefire.

On the positive side (if one can call it that), someone commenting in the muskosphere about that video remarked that these Russians are proud to be filmed doing what they do; but being so fkking stupid, they don't realise that there's a cohort of Ukrainian operatives already hunting down and killing their kind, and they've just added their own name to a list.

Bluster or not, he's really set the fox loose in the Russian henhouse….Soloyuv and co, arent particularly happy, especially as Soloyuv spoke Trump in very warm friendly terms in the past.. The Kremlin reacted negatvely towards Trump, when he didn't immediately go into sanction lifting mode etc,and in typical Russian fashion, resorted to calling him names as Russians do, apparently, they didn't realise how our Donny reacts to name calling…but they know now!!

https://youtu.be/y71GDcQEfls

Am getting a little more positive (from a very negative starting point) about how the Trump admin. might deal with this situation (even if they get up to loads of other henious stuff, and are no friends of either Ukraine or Europe).

I doubt there will be any more massive US aid packages for Ukraine.

If they continue less expensive and flashy military support, allow Europeans (and Ukraine) to buy US weapons, and they don't actively help Putin e.g. by lifting economic sanctions on Russia, bullying Ukraine to accept bad "peace" terms Putin offers to end the war quickly, that would be better than I expected.

The only extra legislative piece that might be required (extra work for a very old and lazy President and a chaotic admin. that cares far more about other things than the invasion of Ukraine) is some way for Europe to pay for weapons drawn from the US military stocks i.e. allow the US govt. to sell replacement Bradleys, tanks, and extra parts and ammo for them, to keep up supply to Ukraine.