2024 will certainly be the hottest year on record. We're shooting past 1.5c ahead of schedule

The capacity factor for the most modern wind installations are closer to 50% than 40% with Hywind Scotland having a 5 year average capacity factor of about 54%

No it isn't. The plan is to have hydrogen use up the energy when there is a surplus of wind generation so it can be used as a storage medium for when there is a deficit

Currently surplus wind is curtailed (ie, the turbines are switched off and no energy is generated) this is one of the factors that affect the capacity factor of 40-55%) Part of the renewable energy strategy is to use that wind power, to reduce curtailment, by storing that energy either in pumped hydro, or grid scale batteries, or interconnectors, or to generate hydrogen for strategic storage or for export.

Your figures are based on the incorrect assumption that we're going to allocate half of the turbines to produce hydrogen all of the time. Thats not the plan at all. The plan is to take the extra energy, during times of extra supply, and use that to generate hydrogen for storage. The logic being, that the Round trip efficiency of storing this energy in Hydrogen doesn't matter because the energy would simply have been wasted if the plant was curtailed as it currently is now.

Instead of thinking that we need 2 times the number of generators to meet peak demand if half of them are making hydrogen all of the time, (which is mad, but you are the only person who thinks we would do this), instead, realise that peak demand is only for a few hours during the day, and at night time, when it's still pretty windy, we could be using all of that energy to charge up batteries (including all of the electric vehicles that will be coming on stream) generate hydrogen, pump water up hills etc etc and all that stored energy then gets used to smooth out the peak demand and to trade internationally over the EU interconnectors.

Maximum demand is currently supplied by having peaker power plants that turn on when they are needed to meet the peak demand. Over the next 30 years, these will be replaced by batteries (quicker than you think) and those batteries will be charged up on the cheapest electricity when it is available, and discharged when the demand is exceeding the real time supply.

Surely that would require thousands of batteries?
Yes, but consider that there will be millions of batteries connected to the grid by 2050, Every BEV and every household, commercial premesis, industral premises, state facility will likely have batteries installed to take advantage of dynamic energy pricing

We might need zero grid scale dedicated batteries to balance the daily peak demand in the grid.

Here's what the Irish energy generation will look like in 2050 if we meet our targets

Breakdown:

1. Onshore Wind Energy:
   • Installed Capacity: 8 GW
   • Capacity Factor: 35% (0.35)
   • Annual Energy:8 GW×0.35×24 hours/day×365 days/year=24,528 GWh/year8 \, \text{GW} \times 0.35 \times 24 \, \text{hours/day} \times 365 \, \text{days/year} = 24,528 \, \text{GWh/year}8GW×0.35×24hours/day×365days/year=24,528GWh/year
2. Offshore Wind Energy:
   • Installed Capacity: 37 GW
   • Capacity Factor: 50% (0.5)
   • Annual Energy:37 GW×0.5×24 hours/day×365 days/year=161,370 GWh/year37 \, \text{GW} \times 0.5 \times 24 \, \text{hours/day} \times 365 \, \text{days/year} = 161,370 \, \text{GWh/year}37GW×0.5×24hours/day×365days/year=161,370GWh/year
3. Solar Energy:
   • Installed Capacity: 10 GW
   • Capacity Factor: 15% (0.15)
   • Annual Energy:10 GW×0.15×24 hours/day×365 days/year=13,140 GWh/year10 \, \text{GW} \times 0.15 \times 24 \, \text{hours/day} \times 365 \, \text{days/year} = 13,140 \, \text{GWh/year}10GW×0.15×24hours/day×365days/year=13,140GWh/year

Total:

24,528 GWh/year+161,370 GWh/year+13,140 GWh/year=199,728 GWh/year24,528 \, \text{GWh/year} + 161,370 \, \text{GWh/year} + 13,140 \, \text{GWh/year} = 199,728 \, \text{GWh/year}24,528GWh/year+161,370GWh/year+13,140GWh/year=199,728GWh/year

You admitted above that we will only actually need about 86000GWh per year by 2050, so we'll be producing double the energy that we actually need even allowing for capicity factor and electrifying everything. Some of this energy can be used to create hydrogen that can be stored for strategic reserves in to cover us if there is a prolonged shortage of wind in the winter
The prevailence of Dunkelflaute conditions around the Irish coast is about 3%, so we would need enough storage to cover those scenarios (also taking into account interconnectors and all of the various storage systems we will have installed over the next 25 years)

Even considering the poor round trip efficiency of green hydrogen, it would take nowhere near half of that surplus to cover our strategic storage needs.

I have agreed that we currently need Gas, because we have not yet built the renewable grid infrastructure yet.

The requirement for gas backup decline as we build the renewable energy infrastructure and storage. This is why I oppose new LNG infrastructure, and instead we should be using those resources to fast track grid modernisation, grid scale storage, offshore wind installations and speeding up the electricity interconnectors to Europe.

We can't magic one into existence now can we. So rather than spending money now to provide new infrastructure that we only need until other new infrastructure is ready, why not just built the infrastructure that we actually want in the long term.

Forget gas storage or LNG, focus on finishing the interconnectors and focus on improving efficiency and getting people off gas and onto modern efficient heating systems.
the hundreds of millions it costs to build fossil fuel infrastructure would be much better spent removing the need for it entirely.

You don't need an 'A rated' house to use a heat pump.

The biggest reason gas is cheaper than heat pumps, is because gas is cheaper than electricity. If we stopped subsidising Fossil fuels, and subsidised electricity instead, then heat pumps immediately win in the vast majority of use cases.

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-ffes/fossilfuelsubsidies2022/keyfindings

4.7 billion euros would have put a lot of insulation into people's homes, and upgraded a lot of people to much cheaper and more sustainable heating systems.

If your house is very poorly insulated, and you think being warm is sitting in front of a radiator thats on all waking hours and sleeping with an electric blanket at night, then the problem is your house is woefully substandard and you should upgrade it

The building standards aren't the driver of unaffordable house prices