2024 will certainly be the hottest year on record. We're shooting past 1.5c ahead of schedule

Akrasia

Climate change is a contentious topic around here, but it's a long running argument where evidence is accummulating with the passage of time. I have been arguing on here for decades about climate change, in line with the scientific consensus that it's a very serious issue, but also worried, that even the scientific consensus was a bit too conservative and we should err on the side of caution, with many fellow boardsies taking every concievable position on the topic over the years, I'm just wondering if anyone has had any change to their opinions over the years?.

The projections for future temperature increases used by the IPCC were bundled up as 'RCP' scenarios, with 4 different set of projections based on how many emissions Humans continued to emit into the atmosphere. The most concerning scenario was RCP 8.5, or 'business as usual' and this was the one that many people accused as being alarmist because this one gave the most severe consequences for climate change within the lifetimes of any middle aged people alive today.

Well, the RCP8.5 (alarmist) scenario said that the world would reach 1.5c of global warming some time between 2030 and 2040. (in the AR5 report released over 10 years ago)

What's the current state of the global climate?

2024 saw a big surge in global average temperatures. We saw at least 12 consequtive months where global average surface temperatures exceeded the 1.5c boundary. This is much earlier than even the most 'alarmist' IPCC predictions from AR5 (10 years ago).

And for people in Ireland and North West Europe, the AMOC (which drives the 'gulf stream') is getting worryingly unstable and could be approaching a tipping point as evidenced by the extremely unusual ocean surface temperatures observed in the past few years in the north atlantic

https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/overview-article-the-atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation-as-a-tipping-point

2023 is currently the hottest year for global average temperatures since records began.

2024 is virtually certain to exceed ths record by a very significant margin and push us above 1.5c above pre-industrial levels for the first time, meaning we will have officially overshot the paris agreement targets for the first time.

2025 is probably going to be another extremely hot year and many experts believe it will be hotter than even 2024.

Many of the experts who were used as sources to disprove climate change over the previous few decades argued that there would be either no global warming at all (ie, the temperatures would fall back to the long term average) or that the increases would be much smaller, with 'climate sensitivity' being less than 1 degree celsius. Is it safe for us to completely disregard all of these 'experts' now as their theories do not align with the observed changes?

Has anyone on here had a change of heart about climate change in recent times?

Fr Tod Umptious

I'm willing to let it happen safe in the knowledge that the people that come after us will be smart enough to be able to adapt to the world they live in.

You see the problem I have with all these people warning about climate change is their arrogance.

They disregard that future generations will adapt to the world they live in and not be hung up on the fact that it is not the same as in the late 20th and early 21st century.

EmmetSpiceland

There’s too much money, and private interests, invested in climate denial for any “real” changes to be made before it’s too late.

Akrasia

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122998059#Comment_122998059

That's interesting. You think future generations will be smart enough to adapt to a problem that the current generations are too stupid to prevent?

Humanity has the technological knowledge and combined economic resources to stop the worst impacts of climate change.

The fact that we're not doing this, while allowing individuals to accumulate higher percentages of global wealth concentration, means that you should be at least a little bit unsure that future generations can overcome these challenges despite also dealing with global instability made worse by more pressure from more political ecological and social instability

Akrasia

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122998063#Comment_122998063

I think the problem of wealth concentration is up there with the climate change problem. We need to solve both, or either of them will destroy us.

Over time, wealth concentration tends to solve itself as we see with the cycle of revolutions that have happened periodically throughout human history, but climate change does not have the luxury of a big reset where we can try again with a different set of political theories. Climate changes are permanent on human timescales and some tipping points lock us in for thousands of years of relentless decline.

Up to a point we can adapt. But there surely will be some threshold where flourishing becomes surviving.

Fr Tod Umptious

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122998087#Comment_122998087

The last remnants of Doggerland (between the UK and Europe) disappeared 7,000 years ago.

It was an inhabited land mass for thousands of years.

Yet without a SUV or a coal powered generating station the climate changed and it disappeared under the sea.

Climate change will happen, stop trying to stop it.

And so what if there will be increased global instability, we've had global instability as long as we have had climate change.

Regardless of how we in the west operate we will always rely on precious resources and there will always be instability when it comes to access to those resources.

o1s1n

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122998106#Comment_122998106

Climate change happens, there's no doubting that. Someone would want to be mad to think we could somehow keep the planet in status exactly how it is now. Hundreds of thousands of years of ice core data shows us that's impossible.

The question really is are we accelerating the process exponentially with our use of fossil fuels. Personally I believe we are. I'm also not having any children though so it probably won't impact me or my own family greatly within my lifetime.

Akrasia

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122998106#Comment_122998106

There are a couple of points here

1. That because climate changes over time naturally, and because human civilisation has survived climate changes in the past, that the current climate change must be similar and we should be able to adapt to it

Problem is, the current global temperature is not something humanity has ever faced before in the Holocene epoch. Human civilisation evolved and thrived in conditions between 2.5c and 1c cooler than 2024 global average temperature

The Holocene epoch, which began approximately 11,700 years ago

1. Early Holocene (~11,700 to 8,200 years ago):
   • Temperatures rose following the last Ice Age, as the planet emerged from glacial conditions.
   • Global average temperatures were approximately 0.5°C to 1°C below pre-industrial levels during this period.
2. Holocene Climatic Optimum (~8,000 to 5,000 years ago):
   • Global temperatures were around 0°C to 0.5°C above pre-industrial levels in many regions, though warming was uneven globally.
3. Mid to Late Holocene (~5,000 to 2,000 years ago):
   • Temperatures gradually cooled due to declining solar insolation, entering a long-term cooling trend.
   • Average global temperatures during this time were around 0.5°C to 1°C below pre-industrial levels.
4. Last 2,000 Years:
   • The climate showed smaller fluctuations, including periods like:
     • The Roman Warm Period (~250 BCE to 400 CE): Localized warming in parts of the Northern Hemisphere.
     • The Medieval Warm Period (~950 to 1250 CE): Regional warming, particularly in Europe and the North Atlantic.
     • The Little Ice Age (~1300 to 1850 CE): A period of cooler temperatures globally, with global averages around 0.5°C to 1°C below pre-industrial levels.

Modern Temperatures:

• Since the mid-19th century, human-driven greenhouse gas emissions have reversed the long-term cooling trend, causing rapid warming.
• Current global temperatures (~2024) are approximately 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, making modern warming significantly higher than the natural range during the Holocene.
• Climate change is not going to stop at 2024 levels, we're almost guaranteed to surpass 2c of warming, with the potential of 3c and higher within the lifetimes of people living today.

All of human civilisation that we know about today occured during the holocene which differed from the Pleistocene period because of long term stability. There were fewer abrupt shifts that allowed for civilisation to flourish.

Humans might be able to adapt to a much more unstable climate, but we would certainly be reliant on technology to do so, and this requires global political stability, which is far from guaranteed in a time of resource shortages, famines, droughts, mass migration.

And 2. That you think it's ok to knowingly allow our future descendents to be born into a world where all of these problems are caused by our own short term greed and weakness (when I say 'our' I mean that tiny percentage of oligarchs who control the resources, and those who choose to support them for whatever reasons)

BENDYBINN

really?…the coldest June on record in Ireland……heating on every night.

Akrasia

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122998161#Comment_122998161

Yeah. Nobody is arguing that Humans have to keep the climate at exactly the current or some idealised climate. Natural forces will change the climate over time, and we can adapt to these mostly.

What we're trying to stop is the difference between a climate changing because of an orbital wobble over hundreds of years, and climate changing because of a catestrophc event, like an asteroid impact, or mega volcano.

There are examples of human civilisations that went extinct due to local climate change. Their food or water supply ran out, millions of people died. Local impacts to climate can destroy nations and empires.

Rapid, severe climate change has already wiped out almost all life on earth multiple times. Humanity is toying with acute rapid climate change like the great oxygenation event 2 billion years ago, where the cyanobacteria changed the chemistry of the atmosphere and wiped out almost all life including themselves (and leading to snowball earth as the methane all oxydised out of the atmosphere rapidly cooling the planet)

That's on the extreme end of things of course, but we don't need to get anywhere near that bad for billions of humans to be emiserated and for living conditions for future human survivors to be closer to mad max than star trek.

Akrasia

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122998222#Comment_122998222

But it wasn't the coldest June on record in Ireland. It was the coolest since 2015, less than 10 years ago.

This thread is about global average temperatures. Ireland is a rocky outcrop on the edge of the atlantic. We do not obey the laws of averages for these things. But we will be hit like a sledgehammer if the AMOC reaches the tipping point and the gulf stream shuts down

If I had to put your heating on every day in June 2024, i'd be more worried about my own state of health and the condition of my own house

magicbastarder

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122998222#Comment_122998222

People who know about the climate talk about the climate.

People who don't know about the climate talk about weather.

BENDYBINN

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122998363#Comment_122998363

can you tell me what caused the end of the ice age?

Akrasia

We're still in an ice age.

The last ice age began about 2.6 million years ago ending the Pliocene epoch and starting the Pleistocene. This was well before Humans even existed as a species.

What we're doing now, is precipitating the actual end of the Quaternary Ice age. Before the Quaternary Ice age, CO2 levels were about 400ppm (which we have already passed) and global temperatures were about 2 to 3c above pre-industrial levels

Essentially, we're setting the conditions in place where all of the polar ice will melt on both poles and most glaciers will disappear.

This will have profound impacts, not least, rising global sea levels by up to 100 feet (30 metres) creating a lot of new islands and swamping a huge amount of the worlds arable farmland.

This won't happen overnight, but it will be a tightening tourniquet squeezing the populations into tighter spaces each generation, forcing people to move, displacing and dislocating societies, cultures. Submerging historical landmarks, monuments, cultural treasures.

Is it 'survivable'? Maybe

have we all seen loads of post apocalyptic films with this as the opening premise? yeah, it's a feckin cliche at this point.

Do we want to make the cliche the reality?

Asking the future generations to sacrifice everything so we have to sacrifice nothing.

that's what is unforgivable.

These Are Facts

Snow on the way Weds, and from Thurs 2nd Jan, for a full 7 days, the nightly temperatures will be below freezing.

Can remember the winter of 2010, negative -19oC recorded in Ireland, must have been the coldest night, of the last few centuries, the car was abondoned on a iced hill, for well over a week.

Proper climate change will only occur this century, when one of the various supervolcaones blows it's load, and kickstarts a very dark few years of global crop failures.

Also: https://dailytelegraph.co.nz/world/climate-scam-uk-met-office-accused-of-making-up-data-from-non-existent-weather-stations/

…Following a series of Freedom of Information requests and field visits, Sanders claims that 103 out of 302 weather stations cited by the UK Met Office do not exist, with four stations in his home county of Kent allegedly producing fake hotness data, despite their closure decades ago…

ednwireland

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122998615#Comment_122998615

I saw that article on the faked data from met office weather stations. Thanks for a print media reference as UK main stream media ignored it.

Akrasia

Citizen journalist Ray Sanders reported in the new Zealand telegraph making outlandish claim?

Why should we trust this above all the worlds most highly respected scientific bodies?

sarchastic

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122998525#Comment_122998525

Are you suggesting from a rough google search that 3% of water not in the ocean the ice on land contains 100 feet global sea rise if melted ?

typo

ednwireland

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122998702#Comment_122998702

Not really the point though is it, IF these weather stations didn't exist and they just reflect the temperature rise thats happening shouldn't be a problem for ukmo to republish the data should it ?

Ignoring stuff like this that makes people doubt everything they read. why did they make up data ?

Seems like an foi request and site visits seems diligent to me

Akrasia

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122998739#Comment_122998739

You've clearly never had to deal with highly motivated crank FOI requests.

Its like a slap suit. Disingenuous and intended only to obfuscate and waste time

Akrasia

Also the claims by Ray Sanders are just based on a fundamental misunderstanding of how the MET collates data in spacial grids to preserve historical datasets

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122998698#Comment_122998698

Don't Forget that the scientific community have rubbished the claims by that blogger...

https://science.feedback.org/review/no-the-uk-met-office-is-not-fabricating-climate-data-contrary-to-a-bloggers-claims/

I think the reason the mainstream media ignored the allegation is because it is tinfoil hat nonsense!

monseiur

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122998059#Comment_122998059

Agree 100% Fr. Tod. Scientists tell us that the last ice age started roughly 120,000 years ago and ended 12,000 years ago and there is evidence that humans adapted and lived thru this ice age. We are also told that before this ice age planet earth was much warmer than it is now - and homo sapiens lived on our little planet then too!!

So two questions for the prophets of doom out there

1. Prior to the last ice age, assuming our planet was as warm or warmer that it is today, what caused the climate to gradually get colder and colder to the point that created an ice age that lasted over 100,000 years ?

2. As there is no evidence of any large scale activity by humans causing climate changing greenhouse gas emissions etc. being released into the atmosphere as the last ice age gradually ended what then caused the climate to get warmer and force the ice cap to recede ?

monseiur

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122998363#Comment_122998363

Yea right………people like Greta Thunberg

God help us all.

PaybackPayroll

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122999284#Comment_122999284

I asked copilot for the answer to Question 1, as I'm genuinely interested.

To summarise, there was a reduction of greenhouse gasses. This is because there was less volcanic activity and more carbon was absorbed by oceans and forests, reducing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere.

There are other points mentioned, like Milankovitch Cycles (Earth's tilt and wobble) and the Albedo Effect (White reflects heat).

(Interesting to note that this is the very same carbon that we are now re-releasing into the atmosphere, but pretty much all at once)

If you have any climate change queries, I find that Copilot is really good at explaining it.

Pa ElGrande

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122999118#Comment_122999118

Mr. Sanders has raised his concerns over his findings with the UK Secretary of State for Science, Innovation and Technology, Mr. Peter Kyle.

The UK Met office stopped measuring real temperatures at the sites and closed them down, most likely because the sites had insufficient facilities to service automated measurement instruments, however, they still continued to enter temperature records in their database for these sites that have never been recorded at these sites. In computer terminology, this is known as garbage in, garbage out.

The second issue Mr. Sanders raises is the regarding the classification of many of these sites, class 4 & 5 have a margin of error between 2°C and 5°C.

Only 52 Met Office stations, or a paltry 13.7%, are in Class 1 and 2 with no suggested margin of error.

This does matter because the climate propaganda networks like to seize on any anomalous readings to generate clickbait headlines as highlighted.

Both the Gravesend and Faversham readings seemed suspect in the eyes of experienced meteorologists. Two very senior members of the Royal Meteorological Society (Stephen Burt and Philip Eden) were so concerned regarding the overall accuracy of the Met Office claims for that day (not just the record breakers) that they launched an extremely in depth and on site investigation. This report was published in three parts in the RMets monthly publication. Perhaps the most relevant is part two which though now paywalled was initially free to view online. Thankfully the “Wayback Machine” Internet Archive saved a copy which can be viewed on the full link below. {n.b. these links are often slow to load}. Extracts from this are used in my review though I recommend reading the whole of the report to fully appreciate its diligence and accuracy.

To summarise the report, the researchers found the Faversham readings to be hugely at variance (above) with other nearby stations that they nearly always were in close accord to. On the day of the record the variance with the Met Office Wye Agricultural College station just 13 kilometres distant was a staggeringly improbable 3.8°C. source

Pa ElGrande

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122998063#Comment_122998063

If that is the case, what do gulfstream environmentalists that fund climate propaganda networks via tax efficient bundling organisations such as European Climate Foundation (ECF) have to gain? It's OK for them to travel in luxury across the globe, meanwhile us plebians must be restricted to "active travel" for the good of the planet.

Speaking of ECF founders, ClimateWorks organisation, Did you know RTE is partnered with Covering Climate Now. Did you ever hear about the Oxford Climate Journalism Network, this is a venture between Reuters and the ECF. They list all the journalists from organisations in Ireland who have attended this training.

magicbastarder

i'm enjoying the 'humans adapted to the last ice age' argument.

yeah, they 'adapted' by dying in their multitudes.

how are humans going to adapt to low lying cities (many of them capital cities) dealing with rising sea levels?

con___manx1

THere is some difference in rainfall for 2023 and 2024. The summer of 2023 was unreal for rain then 2024 it hardly rained a decent amount all summer.

I'm a flyfisherman and I do be hoping for rain in summer.

I know the winter of 2023 was horrible for the farmers with all the rain. That why the price of potatoes went up.

Potatoes is the least of our worries tho with the climate change. I reckon the next generation are gonna be fecked with it.

Damien360

The biggest problem for the green movement in this and what needs to be done is, we are not all in this together when it comes to tackling it. I mean that from an economic and financial mindset. Not an environmental one.

Ireland's green loons believe that Ireland alone can solve this at the expense of it's economy. The hypocrisy that we all see is then importing the very items we cut back on from another country that couldn't care less as if that CO2 is a completely different one from our own. I'm sorry, but until you can get the world to change mindset as a whole then people will ignore the signs.

The greens are also ripe for manipulation by vested interests. Take the nonsense of encouraging data centres here in Ireland as a policy to use more power and encourage renewables as stated recently in released government documents. We created the extra demand outside of normal growth that needs to be fed. If ever there was a business twisting a green mindset and ministers for its own advantage then this is it.

Electric cars with very finite lives and large energy consumption is for me a similar mindset sold to the planet by car makers and battery makers. And still the energy and metals required for these very batteries is not considered as it's made in another country.

For me, the above spells out why the green movement fails to motivate a population to change. Although the greens like to shout about the bigger picture (the climate), they fail to see the bigger picture when dealing with economies.

Akrasia

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122999770#Comment_122999770

Nobody thinks Ireland alone can solve the problem. Ireland have committed to the Paris agreement. That is the minimum requirement from each country to do their own bit.

If it is a real threat, we should be leaders and not just whine that some other countries are welching on their commitments.

And in the process we would actually strengthen our long term economic prospects by freeing ourselves from reliance on foreign imported energy