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Sinn Fein and how do they form a government dilemma

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,773 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Well despite your difficulties with scale the fact is FF recovered support and any party is capable of it.
    If you insist on carrying on, as is your right, ‘tis you is spinning.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    There is no evidence to suggest that Sinn Fein are capable of recovering support, other than FF did it once. At best, that is a theory full of holes.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    housing may be a giant ship that is slow to turn and housing has increased but so to has the population. In fact the population has increased faster than the houses being built so we are not in any better place. It’s like trying to run a bath with the plug pulled out. Yes we need immigration to run the country and fill key jobs but we need to find a balance… maybe we need more work permits for construction or need to temporarily reduce permits in other sectors or fund collages and reduce the no of overseas students..

    For reference. An increase of 100k in population equates to circa 37k extra houses required. How many were built this year again?

    At this rate the cruise ship will sink very fast because it’s taking on more water than it can pump out and doesn’t need any missile to sink it. And before you start accusing me of being a SF bot you need to remember there housing policy is like a row boat compared to the cruise ship and all that is needed is a captain to take action as he was obviously missing for the past 4 years to not see this.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,773 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Well they certainly confounded those predicting LE levels of support.
    FG FF and almost any party that survives in Irish politics have recovered support from falls, even the Greens , who are having to become experts at it or die out like the PDs, Renua etc.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    The construction industry and the public sector hive mind remember 2010. At a macro level, they still carry the fear of the ghost estates. They believe that if the cruise ship moves too fast again, it can hit an iceberg of depression and sink.

    With a capacity of 2.1 million housing stock, and increasing by 30-35k every year, a shortfall of 2-7k, while devastating for those without houses, is capable of being absorbed by the system in their view. If population increases modify, then the shortfall is wiped out. When that is also matched with record numbers of first-time buyers, the belief of the political system will be that housing problems are being addressed for voters, without necessarily being addressed for the wider population of those who don't or can't vote for different reasons.

    This analysis will be characterised as cynical or as pulling up the drawbridge, but that doesn't take from the reality of it.

    The Shinnerbots on here (and you are not one) have been characterising Sinn Fein losing 22% of their voters as being the result of Sinn Fein refusing to pander to the far right. The drop in numbers is far too significant for that to be the reason. In my view, the drop in Sinn Fein votes relates directly to the increase in first-time buyers and the madness of the Sinn Fein proposals on people owning their houses, but not really owning their houses.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,478 ✭✭✭pureza


    Against that though

    More people voted in 2024 than 2020

    The 2 main government parties got more votes than in 2020 out of that

    SF lost more votes on a bigger voter number than the entire population of cork city

    Hardly a stat to ignore after 13 yrs of Fine Gael in government and 9 of defacto FFG government



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    That actually shows how incredibly bad the Sinn Fein performance this time out was. Across the world, in 2024, incumbents both lost votes and lost office. In Ireland they increased their vote and retained office.

    Against that backdrop, while the Sinn Fein performance has been acknowledged by the SF supporters on here as the second worst opposition performance in Irish electoral history, it really should be characterised as the worst.

    It is hard to know where they go from here. A tired leader, a tired front bench, if SF are serious about government, we should see significant change over the coming years.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,773 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    What is being ignored exactly?

    SF's vote declined over one election cycle, the previous one being a high water mark for the party.
    They also recorded a very good campaign which was gaining momentum which gives a very obvious lie to the tired leader/tired front bench serial curmudgeons.

    Many parties have lost similar ground, some to the point of extinction previously in history (one government party in this election cycle). Many have recovered support, some several times.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,861 ✭✭✭Dr Robert


    Blanch and Francy. Do you ever get sick of arguing with each either about the same things every day? 😂

    I say this in jest btw. You're both seriously dedicated!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,478 ✭✭✭pureza


    I did ask in the run up to the election here,was there ever an opposition party losing as much popularity as SF ?

    That Cork city size loss in vote only saw your T.D numbers rise because there were more to be got plus you were able to gain from running more candidates

    The extra candidates should have added 3 or 4 times the extra seats if the population of Cork city hadn’t moved away

    All I’m saying is,there’s a bigger hill to climb from 24 to 29 than there was from 20 to 24 and that hill isn’t of the government’s making



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,773 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    So if they recover support it will be something we will see you on here praising them for.

    I actually doubt it as you seem incapable of looking at anything in a rounded way. But we live in hope.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Fine Gael in the middle of the boom under Michael Noonan in 2002 have been cited as an opposition party losing more popularity than SF. Factually accurate I think (though I haven't checked), but contextually adjusted, it would be hard to argue that SF aren't the worst performing opposition.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,478 ✭✭✭pureza


    you’re surely having a laugh now?
    If they recover support,it would want to be from something good they’ve to offer rather than benefiting from a government balls up where people have no other party to turn to

    Then I’ll be praising them

    I doubt I’ll be given that opportunity ,to be honest but stranger things have happened



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,773 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    😁 I thought there would be a qualifier. Perish the thought credit could be given.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,796 ✭✭✭✭maccored


    failure i think is getting less seats than SF or only getting a handful more. if there hadnt been so much lies and dirt thrown around ffg would have done even worse. SF done great - no amount of denial will get past that.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    SF didn't do great

    No amount of BS will change that

    It was another magnificent failure and hilarious seeing SF supporters trying to paint it as anything else

    How many poor election will SF supporters continue to tell everyone it was "great" 😂



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    SF would need to come up with some coherent policies to gain support from outside the people they currently have supporting them

    Can't see that happening anytime soon with the likes of MLMD, Pearse faux outrage, Eoin "did you know I wrote a book" etc ect



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,773 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    The election would also support this theory:

    FG FF would need to come up with some coherent policies to gain support from outside the people they currently have supporting them.

    They lost voteshare in actuality.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    something something FF/FG something something

    I see boards will be covered in thousands of posts for the next few years which could just as easily be covered in the statement above



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,773 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Something something you can read things as you like in a close fought election such as we had.

    Your exceptionalist take doesn't really work in comparison to the other parties.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    More gibberish

    Another 4-5 years of ever topic reponded to with something about FF/FG is going to be amount as incredibily interesting as the last 4 years of it

    Then SF supporters are wondering why their little online gang is turning people away from SF



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,773 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    No. This is as much a statement of 'fact' as the one you made:

    FG FF would need to come up with some coherent policies to gain support from outside the people they currently have supporting them



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    I never claimed anything was a fact.

    As usual you have nothing to discuss or add to the discussion so you start lying and attacking the poster

    Childish nonsense

    Cop on to yourself after years of the same carry on.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,773 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    You claimed what I posted was gibberish. Don't do that when you cannot dispute what was posted?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    most of the dirt had little to do with other parties but was internal to SF which was then made worse by the way they handled it. No different to soc dems yesterday until they realised that they were just digging a hole.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,478 ✭✭✭pureza


    Over 200,000 less votes in a bigger poll is not great,it’s a concerning performance after nearly 5 years of being the chief opposition party and effectively 10 years

    I’m not sure how you grow after that,other than hope the centre ground,the majority of the electorate suffer in the pocket

    65% replied no to that question in the RTE exit poll regarding the previous 5 years

    Answering yes to being worse off now than 4 years ago is what swung it for Trump across the pond



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,245 ✭✭✭standardg60


    Agreed, the constant outrage and mantra for change has clearly grated the electorate, it might work for a while but eventually people would like to hear coherent alternative policies being put forward.

    When you have a proposed minister of finance describing every investment fund willing to invest in building housing here as vultures and should be banned and a proposed minister for housing believing it's wrong to build up any equity in your home despite paying thousands in interest to buy it, it's a fair summation that some may think they're nuts.

    SF need a clear out of the current leadership who have clearly failed to gain any traction in the last five years, and decide whether their future policies should align more with FF/SC/Labour than PBP rather than trying to do both.

    Knowledge is learning something, wisdom is learning from it, intelligence thought of it first.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,773 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Why do inveterate critics of a political party think their advice (what they need to do…etc) has any weight?

    We have heard the ‘she’ll be gone within the week’ predictions for months now and yet she led a great campaign for SF and almost drew with MM as choice of Taoiseach in the exit poll with Harris finishing a poor 3rd, same result in the debate.
    Doherty got the highest personal vote in the country and O’Broin had no issues either.


    Nobody in SF is listening nor should listen to advice to get rid of their best performers.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,245 ✭✭✭standardg60


    Fair enough, I was going to ask you why you think the current leadership after five years in opposition having managed to reduce their vote will somehow increase it in the next five, but clearly all is dandy!

    Knowledge is learning something, wisdom is learning from it, intelligence thought of it first.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,710 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    They lost 22.5% of their vote.

    Losing 100k first preference votes since the last election is fhe exact opposite of growing your vote.



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