Election to be called Fri - predict outcome

Not a notion. If they were serious in any way they would have been talking for the past 4 years. Despite all that's gone on the last 4 years the incumbents still go into government. FF and FG aren't begging a third party. They'll pull together a few independents.

I'd reckon SF, had they any cop on and not having been distracted by their only internal issues should have been talking to other parties for the last few years and giving the electorate something concrete to vote on.....

Realistically we have loads of parties who really should and could merge but won't do so anytime soon.

• LAB/SocDems - (possibly even the Greens as well)
• FF/FG - for years what defined them was their opposition to each other. That's all gone now.
• SF and PBP-SOL - although they'd last about 5 minutes before the inevitable split
• Independent Ireland and Aontu - they could called themselves the "Common Sense" party since they love preaching about it

All of the Independents would fit into one of the above groupings as well

It would be like keeping the weeds down.

Once you chop the head off one cvnt another one pops up.

I would suspect there are many people who objectively look at FF/FG and see very little difference between them and think they could/should merge. Far from limited to SF voices.

The political discourse in Ireland's MSM is dominated by 'pundits' who are broadly centrist and on the whole are not particularly well disposed to the left - that's unarguable in my view - Harry McGee, Fionnan Sherhan, Philip Ryan, Kevin Doyle, Daniel McConnell, Stephen Collins, Pat Leahy, John Lee etc. It's not just them as individuals but it's the press they write for, why is there such uniformaty of opinion across the spectrum? Vincent Browne and Gene Kerrigan were lone voices against this journalistic hegemony. The entire mantra of the last decade is the 'centre must hold' it's repeated ad nauseum, so any left alternative is broadly ridiculed and dismissed. That's why the results for the LP and SD have been welcomed as some sort of major breakthrough and the SF performance cast as negative. The LP and the SD are the acceptable face of the 'left'.

SF have steadily shifted to the centre/right over the last decade and it hasn't worked in terms of getting them into power, the shift hasn't been enough for the 'pundits' so they keep critiquing and pushing for more and SF continues to oblige.

I would suspect there are many people who objectively look at FF/FG and see very little difference between them and think they could/should merge. Far from limited to SF voices.

Yes but very few within either party themselves AFAIK which should tell you something.

Willie O'Dea says a merged party would be less than the sum of its parts and I'd say that's the predominant opinion in both parties.

https://www.pressreader.com/ireland/irish-daily-mail/20240718/281633900471409?srsltid=AfmBOorSyhdKOX0wcEbagp7cifJHBPVfuM43hJPQWHIaJjl7Lg5CyoRa

Certainly would've hit the FG transfers which proved so crucial to FF winning so many seats. Whereas I doubt leaving the option open would've picked up many cimpensating transfers from SF or the wider left…

You're acting like it's a big conspiracy that they are being secret about wanting to work together. It's been clear since 2020 that both parties will work with each other and the election was about seeing who could be the bigger party. But in a situation where they will work together. FF voters knew this, FG voters knew this. The voting population knew this.

How was he going to get away with saying nothing.

The first question from the media would have been "If the numbers add up will you go into coalition with SF". Without a definitive "no" FF supporters would have walked in droves, plus as @ Loafing Oaf has said so would any hope of FG transfers. There was no upside for Martin or FF in saying nothing. The upside, as it panned out, was in leaving no doubt on SF.

They had been in government together for over 4 years, and a confidence and supply agreement for the term prior with no major dust ups, so of course the understanding was they were each others preference as coalition partners. Which from their transfers was well understood and favoured by both sets of supporters as well as the rest of the voting public. That didn`t mean that both were not determined to come out on top on FPV`s and seat numbers.

How was he going to get away with saying nothing. The first question from the media would have been "If the numbers add up will you go into coalition with SF

Martin is the house master of talking for an hour and saying nothing. That would be no problem.
The ‘downside’ is FG have him by the short and curlies.
Sure he gets power but FF will stay where they are the 20% mark.
Sooner or later they pay the price of having no separate identity.

No skin off my nose or those who want this powershare gone. Work away Micheàl.

It will be FFG with independents.

Lab and SD will take too much effort.

As Vincent Browne said today, they could form a government next week. Half an hour or an hour to buy off the parish pump indos and carry on.

You can keep your identity in a coalition if you don’t do the deal beforehand in nod and wink land.
If you think they have a distinct identity, fair play. I fancy there aren’t many of you left.

Only SF supporters would be naiive enough to think that Martin regrets ruling out SF given their election result.

They'll create a coalition with FG and SF will keep regretting their lack of negotiation in 2020 when FG were preparing for time in opposition.

where they'll be in power forever after getting in once

That’s what is currently wrong. The sense of entitlement from FF FG.

43% of the people of Ireland of those who actually voted, voted for a FF/FG government. Only 21% voted for SF. No sense of entitlement there, they were voted in as part of democracy. Now suck it up.