Election to be called Fri - predict outcome

FFG will rotate leadership again.

It could that FF get longer in the hot seat, but they will rotate. Remember the FPVs are very close between them and a lot of FF seats were won because FG voted for them as 2nd preference.

They both know this and will respect it.

What reason for SFs plummet in votes are we not allowing for?

If people want to vote, they will.

The younger age groups always have a low turnout, but its up to them to increase that; nobody else can vote for you.

Did anyone here predict the outcome i.e. an FF victory with a 10 seat margin over FG in second place? I will make a few bob on FF for the most seats but I didn't expect such a margin over FG (because of FG TDs retiring).

Obviously, none of the media commentators got it right in their tsunami of speculation over the past month but that's just par for the course. I think the first pundit to call it correctly was Prof. Michael Gallagher at 9 am Saturday on RTE Radio.

On that same show, a young reporter from Cork let the cat out of the media bag when he corrected his earlier prediction for Cork North Central by saying "in keeping with the journalistic code of not being wrong for too long". In that same spirit, we will have a lot of BS now about Labour and/or the SDs in government but by Christmas everyone in the media will be saying - "Of course, it was obvious that FF and FG didn't need the smaller parties who in any case were unwilling to risk a wipe-out next time"

SF are back in the new Dáil with more TD's than FG. That is an achievement in itself and they can build now on real support because they stuck to their message on immigration and stood against the far-right.

Ivan Yates started calling a big bounce with extra seats for FF late last week.

Thankfully with our independent electoral commission we don't have any real gerrymandering or voter disenfranchisement possible like what happens in the states however the fact the Taoiseach of the day is the one who picks the date is really the only way that the government of the day can still slightly put their finger on the scales. The fact they can do it means they absolutely will, regardless of who's in power they will always pick the best day for themselves.

They did stand against the far right, but how do they get their core voters back l? Those voters that want to restrict asylum immigration?

Their core vote collapsed by 22% vs GE 2020 and its likely this was driven by the immigration stance.

If SF stay on that path and see a further 22% decline by the next General Election, they will be looking at fewer than 30 seats in GE 2029.

I'd say one of the main reasons FFG have been returned is because they have maintained one of the strongest economies on earth throughout this tenure; the risk of the unknown with SF was too big a gamble, especially with Trump's tariff policy incoming.

Given the 2 choices of FFG vs SF FF, the country got it right.

Not perfect, but the best of the 2 options.

SF had more TD's than FG the last time too. FG had a couple of percentage more on the FPV this time. FG after 14 years in government look like they will be back in probably a 3 year 2 year rotation of Toiseach biggest issue for FF is dose MM want to run for President if so that makes a 3 year before rotation a necessity.

FG may decide to let FF have it for the duration along with problematic ministries such as health and housing. FG take both economic ministeries along with FA and a few other high profile no hassle ministeries

However nobody knows the exact strategy that either side will adopt. Being Toiseach at the end of the cycle has few advantages as SH saw, you cannot really call the election when it suits you as the fallout would be tremendous and you are the target of every bunny with an issue. Martin had a lot less hassle when campaigning.

The other factor is FF picked up that huge seat bonus because the unofficial transfer pact held. Next election FG could retain or increase there seat numbers with a slightly lower vote. They will be under less pressure. There director of elections Olwyn Enright has a few questions to answer. It was a strange choice.

1 in 5 has deserted them since the last GE.

Lets assume the 1 in 5 are the anti immigration crowd; where do SF replace them from?

How do they even get back to where they were in 2020, in terms of FPV?

How can they reverse a 22.5% decline in FPV.

That's a challenge every party has in front of them.

When you are faced with a juggernaut you have to make a juggernaut of your own.
I figure that is why work has begun and SF are out briefing that they will try to form a government. That is being done not in any real hope of forming one but to begin the conversation on building a left alliance to remove FF FG

 the mistake SF made was in especially in 2020 is making MM and FF an offer they could not refuse.

Do you mean not making them such an offer?