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Election to be called Fri - predict outcome

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Chambers, Currie and Donnelly will each take a seat, so one each for FF, FG and SF. Chambers and Donnelly have running mates which will split the FF and SF vote and have some leakage. For the last two seats there are O'Gorman (Green), Walsh (Labour), Coppinger (I4C) and Troy (Aontu). There are also two independents, Treacy, a former SF councillor and Doyle who split from Coppinger.

    I think Doyle and Coppinger will split the vote with Coppinger strongest in Mulhuddart and Doyle strongest in Ongar. Troy will be strongest in the Castleknock end.

    Very difficult to call the last two seats, but I see Troy getting it, her campaign locally has been better.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,453 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    We seen hubris and chickens being counted here on foot of polling less than a few weeks ago.

    I'll chat to you on Saturday when actual voting has taken place.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    O'Gorman does have a personal vote around Blanchardstown, very involved locally. Saw him out during the summer working with the Tidy Towns Group.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    You spent 4 years doing exactly that, now trying to claim it was others. Hilarious



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,242 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    In Dublin the Greens will again get a higher transfer from FG than elsewhere, there is a much closer relationship between Greens and FG there, despite politics than elsewhere.

    The young woman in the tennis club, living on thr road, at the rugby social might be the green candidate, her daddy might be the fg branch chair.

    They are fishing in the same pool there



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    The biggest amount of hubris and chickens being counted here was when one poster proclaimed eighteen months ago that a Sinn Fein-led government was "inevitable".

    The rest of us have been laughing ever since.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 76,227 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    That's not enough to save him when his party vote has vanished.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 672 ✭✭✭Not made with hands


    I can see FFG losing a lot of final seats on transfers.

    We may end up with an SFFG coalition yet.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,079 ✭✭✭eastie17


    FF will probably get marginally more seats than FG and make themselves the "senior" partner. The two of them will need someone else to help them form a Govt. I think the independents are going to fracture the vote again so it'll probably have to be Soc Dems and maybe 1 or 2 greens (if they get that many seats) to form a govt. Worse case scenario is another rainbow type where its Soc Dems, Greens and some independents and then we have our whole govt focused on keeping someone like Mattie McGrath or the Healy Raes happy to stay in power

    Its not going to be a stable govt and we could be back to the bad old days of the 80s where coalition govts sometimes didnt last a year.

    If SF jettison Mary Lou after the election and also remove some of the basket case candidates, they would probably get enough the next time to be the senior partner with a selection of the other parties, again SOC Dems, Greens, Aontu and PBP. Probably wouldnt be enough and would again need independents.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,207 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    I see Coppinger winning the fourth seat fairly comfortably, picking up lost SF votes. If Troy is at the races at all she will be competing with ROG and Walsh for the last seat, but whichever of them is eliminated will elect the other.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Doyle in Ongar will take votes from Coppinger, they had a falling out. Coppinger will have to rely on a protest vote because she has been invisible for the last five years, actually longer because that's why she lost her seat.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,453 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    The biggest amount of hubris and chickens being counted here was when one poster proclaimed eighteen months ago that a Sinn Fein-led government was "inevitable".

    …based on the opinion poll being discussed.
    This poster also said recently…'based on the then opinion poll there was no path to government for SF.

    YOU let slip and got huffy when challenged that those opinion polls were votes. A classic example of giddiness, chicken counting and hubris.

    *By the way, based on current polling I think a path to government is open to SF again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    Did we not get after the last election the claims that the only reason the Greens got in was because of SF transfers. Then it was showed to be nonsense yb @blanch152

    Now you claim it will be FG transfer, why dont you admit you haven't a f**king clue what is going on in the election?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 672 ✭✭✭Not made with hands




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,453 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Didn't hear it live, but I see MM trending for what he said on his Big Interview last night. And not trending in a good way.

    He claimed, 'the war in the north was imposed by the IRA and I'd be careful of saying both sides'.

    What an extraordinary take.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 672 ✭✭✭Not made with hands


    He seems to be going in with both feet against the shinners



  • Administrators Posts: 56,608 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    At this stage I too would be very surprised if it's anything other than FF+FG+Friends.

    I think for SF to form a government they need to win the most seats by a significant margin, and that does not look likely.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    SF fake accounts trying desperately to make things "trend" has been funny to watch.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,453 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    If the claim is the FF party and it's supporters share this bizarre view then I reckon they have been abducted by aliens.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,104 ✭✭✭.Donegal.


    So MM said he’d be careful of saying both sides when it comes to the troubles is an absolutely astounding take. It’s repugnant to the families of Bloody Sunday, ballymurphy, the Monaghan and Dublin bombings to name a few.

    Michéal Martin speaking at a Liam Lynch commemoration, praising Lynch for putting 'pressure on the national leadership to allow volunteers to begin regular attacks on British forces... There are those who have tried to present Liam Lynch and those who stood with him as military fanatics marginal to the national victories of the time. This is a disgrace and complete misrepresentation of history “

    Liam lynch the man responsible for killing tds, judges, senators, newspaper editors, murdered the 7 year old child of a TD in a house fire to name a few. Was also a commander in cork so gods knows how many disappeared had his influence over it. 64 disappeared in cork over a couple years, to put it in to context 17 disappeared during the entirety of the troubles.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,751 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    Ivan Yates says we've gone from the 2 and a half party system to a 10 party system.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 355 ✭✭Kiteview


    My prediction is for independents to secure an overall majority and they’ll form a government based on a platform of being opposed to everything since it might upset their local constituents. 😀



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,502 ✭✭✭wazzzledazzle


    Yep, i'd be fairly certain of all their "big hitters" that he's a gonner. That lad from Labour i'm told will win a seat so leaves it more than likely against Coppinger, but unfortunately she'll probably win a seat also



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    If someone claims that something is inevitable, there are no caveats.

    For example, you can claim that a SF-led government is likely, based on current opinion polls or even probable or possible or some other caveated word. But you cannot claim it is inevitable and use a caveat. That is either hubris and chickens being counted or a misuse of English.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    I saw a poll which had the Greens at 7% in Dublin. Add in a 2% personal poll and O'Gorman would be on 9%. In a five-seater which needs 16.66% to get a seat, he wouldn't be out of the running.

    However, it all comes down to the day.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    The opinion poll yesterday which covered second preferences suggested the opposite, that FF and FG would hold their own on transfers while SF would lose out.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,809 ✭✭✭hometruths


    So do you think if FF have a 10 or 15 seat advantage over FG they'll go into coalition on equal footing with rotating Taoiseach etc?

    Seems unlikely to me.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,453 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    That's where he is hoist by his own petard. FG can do what they did last time, say they are going into opposition and let FF come begging to them. That is how we got a rotating Taoiseach in the first place.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,219 ✭✭✭pureza


    Ah yeah but none of the victims siblings and friends are still alive from the early 1900’s

    There is no equivocation between what went on in the north and the Uprisings and civil wars that led to the creation of the Republic over a 100 years ago

    That being said what went on in the north was very understandable given what the unionist statelet and its proxies were at up there

    Martin’s view is only repugnant to hard core Republicans some of whom don’t even vote for SF anymore and certainly aren’t swimming in the voter pond MM is fishing in

    A great controversy for the last day of the campaign it is not



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,502 ✭✭✭wazzzledazzle


    If FF had anything close to a 15 seat advantage over FG there isn't a hope in hell there would an an equal footing. FF would throw them the basket case minstries like Health and Environment



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