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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

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Comments

  • #182
    Dazler97
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,287 ✭✭✭Dazler97


    I hope models are still saying yes to colder weather for next week but I'd say it's still 60/40 probably isn't set in stone yet



  • #183
    almostthere12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 390 ✭✭almostthere12


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122837945#Comment_122837945

    No, just an innate fear of shortwaves!! 😉



  • #184
    esposito
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,539 ✭✭✭esposito


    The ECM 0Z keeps the HP over Greenland into next weekend, prolonging the cold for us. 850hPa temps could be better but it is still November.

    IMG_2133.gif

    The GEM is similar to the ECM.

    The GFS brings us milder weather with a storm around 25th/26th Nov.



  • #185
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,402 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    I think of all the models the GFS has been the most accurate predicting next weeks weather or at least the start of next week. the GFS was the first to show up the milder shortwaves for Monday and early Tuesday and since then the rest of the models followed. Tuesday to Friday looks cold on all models with most turning milder again into next weekend. The ECM wants to prolong the cold snap past next Friday and into next weekend.



  • #186
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,540 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    Met Éireann latest

    image.png

    www.weatheire.com



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  • #187
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,384 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122843398#Comment_122843398

    Their last update was some joke!! None of the lrfs saw next week's cold spell. They should get rid of them



  • #188
    nacho libre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,604 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Well they do cover themselves by saying increasing uncertainty and confidence is low by week 3 and 4. I think they should just keep the outlook to two weeks at most.



  • #189
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,540 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    Whilst a return to milder weather next weekend is looking increasingly likely, there remains some interesting charts showing a colder setup for the days to follow.

    GFS and GEM ensembles not supportive of same as of now, however.

    ECM1-240.gif gem-0-240.png J264-21.gif kma-0-204.png

    www.weatheire.com



  • #190
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,639 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Yes ECM showing a milder intrusion over the weekend from a LP /storm moving close to Ireland and cold after that all the way out to +360hrs. GFS today showing less cold mid levels after the weekend. GEM very like the ECM out to the end of it's run to +240hrs

    Untitled Image


  • #191
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,402 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    some very interesting model runs overnight and early this morning. The overall trend is we could be lining up a second cold snap after a brief mild interruption next weekend. However this mornings ECM is very much in the colder end of the range with a huge amount of scatter including alot of members that stay very mild from next weekend.

    Untitled Image

    Overall great uncertainty from Friday onwards, the models are not convinced of the big warm up next weekend either.



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  • #192
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,639 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM, GEM and UKMO showing a deep depression next Saturday, GFS is not showing it but a later one on Sunday. One to keep an eye on .

    modez_20241124_1200_animation.gif

    modez_20241124_1200_animation (1).gif

    xx_model-en-329-0_modcan_2024111712_171_1642_149 (1).png xx_model-en-329-0_modgbr_2024111712_156_1642_149.png xx_model-en-329-0_modgbr_2024111712_156_949_149.png

    xx_model-en-329-0_modusa_2024111712_177_1642_149.png


  • #193
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,639 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    GFS18Z has an area of LP near us now too on Sat.

    Edit: In fact the GFS becomes very disturbed over the weekend and early days of the next week.

    xx_model-en-329-0_modusa_2024111718_147_1642_149.png
    Post edited by Meteorite58 on


  • #194
    adocholiday
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,137 ✭✭✭adocholiday


    That storm on Saturday looks very wet on this morning's ECM and GFS. If it verifies it'll be orange level rain warnings for much of the South and East. The ECM also showing a few different spells of high winds throughout the weekend keeping us windy through to Monday. It will be interesting to watch this develop throughout the week.



  • #195
    John.Icy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,194 ✭✭✭John.Icy


    Fascinating GFS 12z. A playout of many of the signs and calls that we shortly need to start looking towards Scandi…

    There's has been some rogue signs in the far reaches of FI the last few days, but this is the most blatant by far.

    Some of the height anomalies in recent days also have been signaling heights towards Scandi.

    Untitled Image


  • #196
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,402 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122853960#Comment_122853960

    Maybe it's to do with the fact that both the NAO and AO forecasts are unsure if we go back to positive territory or stay in negative territory for the remainder of November. So much uncertainty in the models beyond Saturday, anything could pop up within FI over the next few days.



  • #197
    John.Icy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,194 ✭✭✭John.Icy


    Weakens by +144 as it moves to our north, but christ. An absolute doozy of a storm on the ECM tonight.

    Has been mentioned in the event thread already and needs watching.

    image.png


  • #198
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,402 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122854052#Comment_122854052

    that storm looks fairly vicious alright.

    Untitled Image


  • #199
    Cork2021
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,419 ✭✭✭Cork2021


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122854101#Comment_122854101

    deserving of its own thread?



  • #200
    John.Icy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,194 ✭✭✭John.Icy


    Not for now I'd say.

    UKMO and GEM don't really make much of it.

    GFS does spin up a powerful storm but quickly weakens it before it makes inroads towards us.

    Sit and see for another day or two.

    We don't want to upset our resident event thread watches who are utterly aghast at us making threads to discuss the weather, on a weather forum.



  • #201
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,639 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122854130#Comment_122854130
    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122854144#Comment_122854144

    MT mentioned earlier about maybe starting a thread after the 12Z, will message him to see if he will do the honours, ECM is fairly strong as is GFS and ACCESS G but GEM and UKMO less so , a degree of uncertainty but definitely needs an eye kept on it. Just under 120 hrs too.



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  • #202
    Cork2021
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,419 ✭✭✭Cork2021


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122854276#Comment_122854276

    thanks Meteorite



  • #203
    .Donegal.
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,830 ✭✭✭.Donegal.


    I thought about making a windstorm warning watch thread for autumn/winter season. Then whenever a storm is named a new thread could be made for that. Not sure if it’s a good idea though, if anyone does and wants to make it go ahead.



  • #204
    Dazler97
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,287 ✭✭✭Dazler97


    IS their a storm thread I can't find it ,but I'm sure there will be one soon I'd say by Wednesday at the latest, storm looks fairly nasty at 940mb we haven't seen that type of pressure in years



  • #205
    sparrowcar
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,933 ✭✭✭sparrowcar


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122854561#Comment_122854561

    Just have a quick read of the previous posts on this thread. One being set up shortly.



  • #206
    Dazler97
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,287 ✭✭✭Dazler97


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122854611#Comment_122854611

    Will do thanks 😊



  • #207
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,384 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    JMA's take on Saturdays rainfall. Just highlighting it really because all models agree on torrential rain Sat morning

    image.png


  • #208
    .Donegal.
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,830 ✭✭✭.Donegal.


    UKMO T120

    image.gif

    24 hours later it has weakened

    image.gif

    GFS T120

    image.png

    T144

    image.png


  • #209
    .Donegal.
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,830 ✭✭✭.Donegal.


    ECM T120 exceptionally deep

    image.gif image.png

    Below comparison for same time yesterday’s run. It’s 7mb deeper today

    image.png


  • #210
    Robwindstorm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 637 ✭✭✭Robwindstorm


    Uk model nearly positioning the storm in the same location at T120 as well. There will be some sea's of the the west and north coasts. The position of this storm will probably be nailed down as early as this time tomorrow as it's a very big system with a large windfield. The snow threat (treat) will have to be played out first before this grabs attention.



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  • #211
    adocholiday
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,137 ✭✭✭adocholiday


    I think the rain with this one is going to be more impactful than the wind for a lot of people. Most models showing big totals in places to fall within a few hours. UKMO with the highest volumes so far and most of it falling within 12 hours. I expect flooding will be a problem with this system.

    xx_model-en-328-0_modgbr_2024111912_108_949_63.png


This discussion has been closed.
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