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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST
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06-09-2024 6:26pm#1
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Mod Note:This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onward for Autumn 2024.
If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved
Thanks
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Charts quite similar around midweek showing cooler but little rainfall then a big divergence between ECM and GFS as can be seen below with the ECM going back to warmer and more settled weather, currently showing up to the high teens touching 20C towards the end of the week and the GFS turning up the the LP systems, some vigorous, temp slightly below the ECM and very wet to boot. GEM quite similar to the ECM. So as ever have to see a few more runs before any confidence one way or the other , settled or unsettled and v wet.
Post edited by Gonzo on4
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Once we get the bits of rain out of the way over the weekend and maybe a part of Monday, ECM is looking very dry and settled with warm days possibly getting over 20c in parts and cooler nights with foggy mornings. GFS showing it relatively dry also with some good temperatures but HP drifting away towards the end of the run. GEM perhaps a bit more like the GFS.
In all I would reckon a good chance of dry settled weather with some warm days for the time of year .
Post edited by Meteorite58 on20 -
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Models in agreement of a cooling down next week possibly with a few frosty nights in parts as arctic sourced air moves down from the North but could turn milder and quite wet over the weekend with a return to SW'lys depending on the track of some LP systems.
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Models have been showing an area of LP / depression on and off caught up on the fast Jet for next weekend ( Sun /Mon ) the last number of runs and are beginning to show something windy and very wet now the last couple of runs but all depending on track and good way off yet but worth noting to see if it develops or not into something.
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Some of the models bringing the system a bit further South on Sun/ Mon, fairly wet looking , windy but in general not too strong on the current runs by most models a few look quite strong so a bit to go before a clearer picture unfolds.
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GFS and ECM both showing a very deep low heading our direction Thursday week. It's so far out that it's absolutely certain to change but the fact that both models are showing it with very similar timings make it a bit more interesting. Worth keeping an eye on.
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Issac set to dissipate well West of Ireland around next weekend. Looks wet at times over the weekend but not excessive at this stage, quite possible a shot of warmer temperatures around Sat getting into the high teens and possible thunderstorms. Possibly a bit windy but not too much. The surfers will be watching the swells no doubt.
Kirk which looks to rach Major Hurricans status and a very large one at that is currently showing up on the models to make it over towards us around the 10th, see discussion below from the National Hurricane Centre. Will be an interesting one to watch…..long ways off and could end up anywhere as yet but good opportunity to see how the models fare. It too would no doubt drag in warm moist air with it shooting up the temperatures…
Just looking at the 850hPa temps also and that would make for a source of energy from the thermal gradient too.
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Still there on 12Z ECM + 12Z GFS
Filled a little (961/959mb) but now a direct hit although the ECM weakens considerably in the next couple of frames. Arriving a day sooner too.
Still way too far out to be too concerned and if it weakens by 10mb a day next week will be 23 degrees and sunny instead.
If the charts look like this at the weekend it's different story.
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So far the models showing the track of what would be left of Kirk to the S of Ireland or the center just crossing Ireland with the strongest winds offshore to the south, would probably be heavy rain with a track like that. Long way to go but worth tracking it to see how the models do.
Seeing predictions of an active October with perhaps more Hurricane activity.
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The track of the remnants of Kirk still uncertain but it does seem to be trending to the S of Ireland, some earlier runs from the GFS of windy weather gone again, no model showing strong winds at this stage, ECM showing wet but not excessive at this stage.
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