FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

Oíche Na Gaoithe Móire

Even if next week is a little watered down. And is dry with frost or produces cold rain, perhaps it'll be the beginning of a winter with more northern blocking and different patterns. That's exciting in itself. There might be a round 2 in early December when we're nicely into winter.

Oíche Na Gaoithe Móire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122833025#Comment_122833025

Ireland's Weather Channel are the most bullish. Live bulletin delivered in this gear😅

Oíche Na Gaoithe Móire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122833025#Comment_122833025

Looking cold to very cold, -6 to -8 uppers. Possibility for some wintery precipitation. No point in speculating at this point.

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122832215#Comment_122832215

I cut the grass today and the collecting box was as full as if I cut it in mid July. Mad... Important to cut the grass short if there's a chance of snow mind, you don't want any tufts of grass ruining your pics!

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122833042#Comment_122833042

Ye that's another channel I've had beef with as well , he's just mostly unreliable, as for next week that's good it's looking cold but we shall see closer to the time maybe Friday or Saturday we will have a clearer idea but even at that stage it may not be set in stone

BLIZZARD7

Recent output definitely catching my attention… hints of something unusual starting next week - a long way to go to 2010 depth cold as pointed out above, but worth bearing in mind, at least from my memory, at this point in 2010- we weren’t looking at charts any better than what we currently have on offer.

To be honest, any decent level of cold with even the chance of snowfall is quite unusual in November these days, and what is currently moving into the reliable timeframe is a deeper level of cold than I can remember in any recent November, what is showing also has the potential to develop into something significant. ECM 12z and a couple of recent GFS runs are showing some wild hemispheric patterns developing, so I will stay cautiously optimistic for now.

A week from now we could be looking at the impending resumption of normality, we could also be looking at the start of something resembling winters of yore…

Oíche Na Gaoithe Móire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122833075#Comment_122833075

Yes, a bright young fella who can be informative. And 90% of the time is good.

However let's extreme weather events, or the remotest prospect of, especially snow, cloud his judgement.

And is overly fond of sensationalism for clicks and traffic. Claiming an unofficial Dublin station had set a new November record of 20.6c last week. He knows right well the risks with amateur stations. But the thought of all those clicks!!

Very 'polished' in his delivery too. Give me Alan Reilly's delivery any day over him.

And a serious beef with Met Eireann. He just needs to mature a bit and channel his abilities properly.

PokeHerKing

-8 over us by next Monday

Billcarson

The best thing about this upcoming cold spell is the fact we are getting one. Might hopefully be a sign of a decent winter to come. But remember November 88 that was as good as it got that year.

KingdomRushed

Been watching model outputs with increasing interest as this week has gone on. It is becoming near certain that it is going to get quite cold from mid month, and I would say snow for some places in ireland is now actually becoming probable in November. No point in hyping it up too much for now, but the trend remains in both the ECM and GFS morning outputs. Whether the snow arises or not we shall certainly see some very cold nights, that now looks locked in.

Mooro

Long time lurker and occasional poster. Great to be back on the rollercoaster for another winter. I know there will be many frustrating moments as promising models disappear over the coming months but hopefully we will get something notable this year. Fingers crossed.

pauldry

It also tries to reload on the GFS but the Atlantic is having none of it. Now the 7 days of cold previously is slightly whittled to 5 before wet and windy cold from Atlantic. Perhaps milder in the South. Normal for November though.

John.Icy

The updated ECM version now goes out to +360 h and has far more time increments.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf_hres.php

For anyone who is a gluten for FI blizzards beyond Day 10…

Gonzo

GFS runs overnight and this morning certainly shortening this spell a bit and bringing in mixing with the Atlantic but I expect more changes to come for better for for worse over the next few days in what is a tricky setup for the models to accurately model this far out.

Meteorite58

Was just going to post the same thing and here is the chart out to +360 hrs, will be interesting to see how it does picking up signals and spotting pattern changes.

Keeping it on the cold side for some time out into FI.

Jet very noticeably staying mainly South of us that would certainly let the land mass cool down substantially .

BLIZZARD7

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122834225#Comment_122834225

?

I see a successful reload on the GFS, but not much point in looking so far when we are seeing changes at day 5.

06z GEFS trending colder, all to play for in terms of longevity and depth of cold.

Hooter23

The fog during the day is making it colder than it would have been..when we usually get this type of cold it is many times followed up by very cold weather and it looks like this will happen this time too with very cold air coming down from the north next week...it might turn into very cold prolonged weather sometime after that...or start creating winter storms too

almostthere12

I must admit I hate the 06z and 12z GFS, both have these little shortwaves come down from Greenland along the border of the cold and warm air bringing the warm air into the south but giving the north and most of the UK a pasting!! Sure it says we get snow on the backend of it but not sure that ever works out well for Cork!!

The ECM and Icon are a lot cleaner.

Gonzo

A poor GFS 12z run for Ireland with Atlantic/mild sectors spoiling all the fun and games which looks reserved for Northern half of the Uk on this particular run. I wouldn't get hung up on it tho as it is only 1 run and tomorrow could look different again. Definitely a model wobble for Ireland and southern half of England.

WolfeEire

GEM is very interesting too . Brilliant start to winter model watching. It's usually late February by the time we get around to this kind of stuff. It's not markedly drifting from the prospect of a more prolonged cold spell which is my main takeway at this early stage. Nothing 'severe' or disruptive is indicated as of now but potential is there.

bazlers

Dont ya know the pub run will be a thing of beauty. Then morning run will be a thing of tears.. the old rollercoaster. Up and down like a whor....yoyo ; )

almostthere12

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122835491#Comment_122835491

All of the other models are a lot cleaner and don't have those short waves (I think that is what they are called), but wasn't it these type of shortwaves that spoiled our cold weather that was being modelled for last Christmas?

.Donegal.

GFS has snow cover limited to Ulster for a couple of days

A snow to rain event then

Yesterday it had a storm parked over England and a different run had widespread snow cover over France which isn’t there above. Huge swings over this past 24 hours with it, the other models have been way more consistent. You can’t discount it but I wouldn’t be betting on it at the same time with the wide fluctuations run to run.

esposito

GEM 12Z looks like a prolonged cold spell on the cards.

I’m liking the look of the UKMO even thought it only goes as far as +144 hrs.

GFS doing what the GFS does best in trying to bring milder air in the form of shortwaves (I think?) as early as Monday night. Can’t discount it but looks to be the odd one out at the moment.

.Donegal.

ECM T120 - Blue area Kind of looks like a banshee with one arm raised through the cloak or I’ve been staring at the models for too long…

Gonzo

The shortwaves in todays GFS 12z are not that well supported but there is some support for next week to be milder than what we want, however the majority of the runs keep it cold throughout next week with wintry precipitation around the country at times.

Overall there is still a fair deal of scatter from Monday onwards so several more days of model watching needed to see where we are at for next week, we may not get a real idea until the weekend.

igCorcaigh

Total noob question here, but will this early cold spell boost the chances of further cold weather during the coming winter? TIA.

Ros4Sam24

An early cold spell would make future northerly’s more potent by cooling down SST’s. Although doesn’t necessarily mean we’ll see more northerly’s

.Donegal.

ECM temp anomaly

Rougies

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122836025#Comment_122836025

Not at all. It actually statistically lowers the chances of further cold weather, although beware of the gambler's fallacy!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122836287#Comment_122836287

Technically yes, but by negligible amounts. SSTs are very stable in the ocean.