FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

Slider fun and games next wednesday on the 18z gfs.

Solid agreement on the ECMWF regarding upper air temps next week

Ecmwf model output is more likely at this stage, not much support for the GFS outlook. We will soon be inside the 120 hour time frame.

I'd be inclined to agree. And after what must be one of the dullest three-week periods on record, I'll happily take some cold, dazzling late-autumn sun.

Unfortunately I am not loving the model output this morning. The initial shortwave on Monday that was only showing up on the GFS is now showing up on all other models which delays the real cold. There is another shortwave then on Thursday that is currently modelled to bring snow to a lot of Ireland except in my back yard in the south (if any of the models do say snow for Cork for those shortwaves I don't believe them anyway!).

Of course on Netweather they keep saying those shortwaves (or channel lows) always go further south than modelled, well here's hoping!!

negative Nancy you are ser

Getting her ready, just in case people are ready to board

Netweather posters basing their shortwave commentary on their 'traumatic' experiences last winter when two snowmaking lows were nailed on for southern england and midlands, only to incrementally sink south with each passing run in the final days, ending up just skirting the southern english coast.

Yeah last year I just went to Tesco and stuck my head in the freezer for a while to get special seasonal feeling.

If Kermit pops his head in, we're off

That time of year again. Enjoy the ride everyone

I think we will see a cold weather advisory issued by Met Eireann on Friday or Saturday. They seem fairly confident based on there own ensembles that next week is going to be very cold with snow for low and high ground areas. There forecast is different than normal too especially Monday where there giving scenarios.

Met Eireann forecast

Sunday night: The uncertainty increases then on Sunday night. The rain may clear southwards from all areas, with colder air starting to become established right across the country, and with showers moving into the north and west, some of sleet in the north. However there is also the chance of rain and milder conditions persisting further south.

Monday: There's a high degree of uncertainty in the forecast at this stage, for Monday and Monday night. There's a couple of potential scenarios, each bringing the likelihood of some wintry precipitation. One scenario has the cold arctic airmass across Ireland with sunshine and showers, some of those of hail and sleet and possibly snow, the showers most widespread in the north and west. Another scenario, which could bring more disruptive weather, is where a developing area of low pressure moves in over Ireland bringing some heavy rain and strong winds along with some falls of sleet and snow.

Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday: Certainty returns to the forecast from Tuesday. An unstable arctic airmass will be established right across the country. While there'll be sunshine, there'll be showers too, some of the of hail and sleet and some of snow too. The sleet and snow showers will be most widespread across the north and parts of the west. Highest afternoon temperatures of just 2 to 7 degrees and feeling very cold with the added wind chill from moderate to fresh and gusty northwest winds, stronger in some coastal parts at times. Temperatures by night will drop to between -3 and +2 degrees, maybe colder locally, with some frost and icy conditions.

There ensembles forecast show a rather cold week ahead. Local authorities have also been giving the heads up today from the NDFEM CMT.

They also are considering a local authorities meeting for Saturday.

heading off to swiss Alps next week, im getting readings of between -13 and -21 on gfs and ecm with about 20 cm of snow , has anyone here else experienced this level of cold, iv only experienced extreme cold before for 4 days in 2010, is it possible to stay outside for very long in these temperatures, would i need any special clothing, iv got the basics, thermals, gloves, thick wool icelandic jumper, scarfs,hat etc. or should i just remain in doors. How cold is too cold to go outside for any length of time.

Mod Note: please keep this conversation and replies for the Autumn discussion thread .

Have been in -22c before, there was no wind chill though, flat calm, it was completely fine. Wind chill for me really determines how uncomfortable the cold is, its harder to stay warm when the wind is blowing!

Are you going skiing?

Mod Note: Please keep this discussion and replies to the Autumn discussion thread. Thanks.