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Election to be called Fri - predict outcome

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,533 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


     you defended the half-arsed apologies to the hilt;

    Go read the thread, in it you will see I thought that the O'Donghaile issue was a resigning matter if MLMD could not rationalise it.
    She did. If you are not concerned about somebody's mental health I would not be supporting you.

    I said if that if it emerges the 'mental health' issue was bogus then she would have to go.

    This is the usual bullshit I get thrown at me from people who half read threads from their own bias.

    SF are a long long way off some of the 'far right' rhetoric we have seen here. When they begin pandering to that vote that is my red line.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,609 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    House price to income ratios have gotten larger and larger over the past 30 years.

    Houses were empirically more affordable in the 90s and early 2000s compared to now



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 72,751 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Evaded again.

    You are just explaining away your acceptance of a half-arsed apology there. That's what you accept in any and every case of SFs (severe) failings, as the party must be right.

    You have supported every move by SF to the right, claiming its due to public opinion; when it is actually just the opinion of a small group of people they assume voted for them before.

    How many more shifts to the right will you continue to support? If it is no longer possible to consider them a left wing party, would that be enough?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,621 ✭✭✭Augme


    I love how "it's power sharing" doesn't work as an excuse but "it's a coalition governmnet" does work as an excuse when it comes to trying to justify why FG and FF have implemented absolutely none of the things they promised they'd do if elected to government following this election. 😂



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,614 ✭✭✭✭NIMAN


    I'd like to see SF lead a government for a term, to see if they could do a half decent job.

    Let's be honest, FFG haven't covered themselves in glory this last few governments. Health, housing, immigration all disaster zones.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 72,751 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Straight back to the "SF supporters cannot accept there are non FFG options other than their awful party" thing I see.

    Going to be some extremely fun to watch reverse-ferreting if SF do end up going in with FF in a few weeks.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,621 ✭✭✭Augme


    I'd say most SF supporters realise there's lots of non FFG options. Hence the reason MLMD has constantly said she'd prefer a government without FFG.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,761 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    I would argue a similar statement, that almost every political party and indie are only going to be capable of going in to Government with both of FFG anyway.

    At the end of the 2020 GE FFG were at 73 seats, 8 short of a majority, meaning that in theory All the other parties and indies could have joined forces to keep the civil war parties out of govt

    In practice they had enough votes in 2020 without the greens as FFG have a number of indies that will back them all the way if necessary

    For me the main difference is that FFG have both dismissed SF out of hand while SF have said they are at least open to negotiations. So to me, and to many others I'm sure, SF seem like the more grown up party



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 72,751 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    And yet, the SF supporters on here immediately go for a "but FFG!" response when the myriad failings of their own party in every sector are pointed out.

    Awful in the Executive in NI. Awful on councils in ROI. Internal coverups. Internal bullying. "Good Republicans" hanging around like a bad smell. Trying on one hand to wave away IRA actions as ancient history while doing stuff like the Storey funeral and posting regular tributes to "Volunteers" who blew themselves up on buses in London etc.

    "But FFG!"ing that does not attract voters that already aren't voting for FFG, it just makes SF look more problematic and its online supporters more rabid and single-minded.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,533 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Oh my word, we aren't allowed to explain our positions now?

    The salivating about the Shinners turning to right continues. We now have the suggestion they are turning to the far-right. How much more ridiculously desperate are folk gonna get I wonder?

    With the exception of the smaller parties I don't think in right or left terms, I have said this before. I am right on some issues and left on others. I see all the main parties in the same light.

    I can't honesty tell you what the watershed point for me would be on immigration but setting up an umbrella ministry to deal with it and having a look at EU registrations is a long way off that point.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,851 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    She didn't rationalise it, unless you consider putting the mental wellbeing of a 16-year old behind the mental well-being of a public personality trained to cope with adversity as rational.

    But, you grasp at any straw imaginable to defend MLMD.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 72,751 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Question (mostly) evaded, again.

    You accused people of not reading your posts, yet you've now spent a few posts trying to turn "further" in to "far"; because you don't want to answer an incredibly simple question and feel that you would can better deal with a misrepresented version of the post.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,851 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    I don't think you understand.

    Sinn Fein have demonstrated through their petty approach to power-sharing in the North, throwing the toys out of the pram at every opportunity, that they are not fit for government.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,208 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    But the post I was replying to was talking about 40 years ago, not the run-up to the crash when banks were throwing money at people.

    I'm partial to your abracadabra,

    I'm raptured by the joy of it all.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,654 ✭✭✭hometruths


    I think that's very generous by PP and if I was a betting man I'd take a punt on Matthews.

    Interesting thing about the constituency is the new boundaries and the fact that all the front runners are from Bray/Greystones. Every thing south and south west of Wicklow town is gone, and I wouldn't class Timmins (Baltinglass) as a front runner.

    I don't think Harris topping the poll with a shed load of transfers is a foregone conclusion. He'll get some bounce from being Taoiseach but he only got half of Brady's 2020 first prefs, and he had nothing to spare. He didn't make the quota when all said and done.

    He'll probably have something to spare this time sure, but I don't think it will be anywhere near enough to help bring Timmins with him.

    Brady has a strong local working class vote in Bray, which I think will largely hold from 2020 despite the drop in SF support. So he'll top poll on first preferences, make the quota, and have a ton of transfers. I think they'll spread disparately, and disproportionately away from the front runners.

    Whitmore is safe as she has strong local support from north east middle class vote. She was only candidate other than Brady to make the quota in 2020 and I suspect she'll increase her vote this time.

    Shay Cullen resigned from FG and is running as an indo after Timmins was selected despite Cullen getting more votes, so I don't that think will help Timmins - I'd write him off.

    So I think the last seat is between Matthews and Donnelly.

    Donnelly will get the diehard FF vote, and he'll be helped that he is the only FF candidate this time, but a big chunk of that is gone from the south west of the county. What remains of the constituency heavily skews away from FF ideologically.

    On top of that disadvantage he has no personal support whatsoever. The whole Indo>Soc Dems>Fianna Fail fiasco has cost him a huge amount of personal support, and it showed in 2020. And that was before his performance as Health Minister during Covid which is also likely to cost him.

    Matthews on the other hand is likely to have increased his personal support despite any national drop in support for Greens, he is well liked, active in constituency, and the population density is heavily skewing toward a latte drinking, Happy Pear munching, dry robing lot etc. i,e considerably more Green than FF!

    Matthews might not be particularly transfer from the rag bag of indos eliminated early on, but neither will Donnelly, and when it comes to it, I think Matthew's will get the lions share of O'Brien/Timmins/Whitmore's transfers and that will be enough to keep him ahead of Donnelly for the fourth seat.

    My 2 cents! Shall be watching it unfold with great interest!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,533 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    The OP I was responding to when you interjected - go read his/her post properly.

    You can't accept the answer, that is on you.

    Thread ain't about me.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 72,751 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    This is a forum, not a real-life spoken event; there's no such thing as interjecting.

    You never gave an answer, so there's nothing to accept. You evaded it, as it would reveal that your support is for the party and not its policies; not that that needs revealing on here. The facade fell a very, very long time ago.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,566 ✭✭✭DataDude


    Certainly will be very interesting. Only point I’d overwhelmingly disagree with is Harris.

    He’s all but guaranteed to top the poll by a country mile. PP have him 1/200. Brady 1/20.

    Everything is so different to 2020. SF support has plummeted. Harris is Taoiseach and hugely popular (across the country but particularly in greystones). Who doesn’t want a local Taoiseach!
    I’m going to venture he’ll get the second highest vote share of any TD after Healy Rae (or if not, top 5)…which coincidentally is a title Donnelly had at one point I think!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,533 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


     You evaded it, as it would reveal that your support is for the party and not its policies;

    No I didn't evade anything. Similar to what we see when it's the Shinners on the stand, you just gave the stock

    'No, that is not the answer I want' response.

    I can't honesty tell you what the watershed point for me would be on immigration but setting up an umbrella ministry to deal with it and having a look at EU registrations is a long way off that point.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 72,751 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    "I'm going to give you an example of what it's not" isn't an answer.

    You never gave an actual answer for me to accept (or not), you fudged and evaded.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,609 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    The 80s and 90s did not have banks throwing money at people, and housing was still more affordable relative to incomes.

    I mentioned the 90s in my original post too but you seem to have ignored that



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,311 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    My parent's generation were all able to afford houses on 1 income. This would have been late 70s into early 80s.

    Was it hard? I'm sure it was. Was it as hard as now? Nope. And that's not to take from the difficulty that people had then.

    I've said this already, but if something is hard for you, you should be aiming to make it easier for those who come along after you. Not make it at least equally as hard because it's fairer that way then or whatever the view is. Don't pull the trapdoor up after you like. Drop a ladder down.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,533 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    What were you expecting…'when they burn down a migrant hostel'?

    My answer is I don't have a singular point, if you can't accept that, that's your issue.

    Now off you go, thread is not about me and I'm done with this.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,654 ✭✭✭hometruths


    You might well be right on Harris, he's certainly not forgotten about Greystones' needs since his elevation, far from it! This will stand him in good stead.

    In any event, to me it matters little who tops the poll compared to who sneaks in On the final count.

    I'd be very happy to be wrong on Harris as long as I'm right on Donnelly!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 72,751 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    I was expecting an actual answer, not a page of fudging and evading. But what we've got in reply is incredibly predictable, unfortunately.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,566 ✭✭✭DataDude


    Yep, spoke to someone today who met Harris at the dart station.

    ‘I hate Fine Gael. I wanted to hate Simon Harris…but he’s just too f’in nice to hate’.

    I’m on the fence on Donnelly. Part of me respects what he’s done. He could have stayed an independent or Social Democrat. Guaranteed to top the polls for the rest of time. Staying on the fence making absolutely zero difference to anything but collecting his kudos and his paychecks.

    Taking on the Minister for Health is brave. It’s almost always going to lead you to being less popular (have you not fixed the HSE yet???). Fact he wants it again despite it almost guaranteeing he will never be elected again afterwards says a lot to me. Probably be 4th on my ballot.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,186 ✭✭✭wazzzledazzle


    I'd actually agree with what you have said about Donnelly, albeit, he's been a really tepid Minister for Health. That dept needs a Haughey type character to go in and fix it, but dare i say it, i think they should be focusing primarily on Housing.

    Not possible to fix both during a single tenure of a government, well certainly not this lot of Politicians anyway



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,654 ✭✭✭hometruths


    My view on Donnelly is very heavily influenced by a "meet the candidates" event I attended in 2020.

    It was in a big conference room, divided up into tables on different issues - eg Health, housing, education etc. Idea was you sat at table which represented issue you cared most about and each candidate moved round the room to each table and fielded questions etc on the subject.

    In stark contrast to everybody else, Donnelly came across as an arrogant prick who started to talk down at people as if they were idiots as soon as he sat down, and had no interest in listening to anybody around the table.

    This was very frustrating because having been chatting with each other as we waited for the event to start, it was clear to us sitting at the table that there were some very knowledgeable voters who had some very good ideas and feedback on policy etc. Every other candidate except Donnelly at least made the effort to appear to listen to what these people had to say and respond accordingly.

    Both Harris and Whitmore came across exceptionally well at this event.

    I'm yet to decide for sure how I'll vote this time despite always previously voting FG and fitting the mould of stereotypical FG voter.

    My dilemma is my two preferred candidates as representatives for Wicklow are Harris and Whitmore, I think they are excellent constituency TDs.

    But I'm extremely angry with FG over housing and I might as well be on a different planet ideologically to the SDs.

    FF I am also angry with over housing, and as you'll have realised above, I wouldn't vote for Donnelly in any case.

    Greens, I like Matthews and I have a lot of respect for the Green Party sticking to their principles, even though I think they're misguided. I am also cross about them holding up the N11 improvements.

    The indos and extremists, both left and right, are a mess.

    Which leaves SF. And if you'd asked me four years ago I'd have said I'd couldn't imagine any circumstances which would cause me to vote SF.

    Now I am tempted give them a first preference purely because I think we need a fresh approach on housing. But I am hugely conflicted because it is quite a big deal for me to actually tick that box.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,621 ✭✭✭Augme


    I care about who's in government and the decisions by parties in government. FFG over seen record homelessness, record housing crisis, record rental prices, record hospital waiting lists, recording waiting lists for disability services, record waiting lists for mental health services. The answer to that from FFG supporters is "oh but SF..." or from Simon Harris "oh but the immigrants..." I know exactly how FFG will do in government and it will be more of the same - record homelessness, record rental prices, record waiting lists for the most vulnerable members of society.

    As for a FFG talking about SF voters looking rabid online, the irony tbh.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 72,751 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Once again with the assumptions that anyone willing to call out SF supports FFG. Which was my entire point. Not doing a great job denying the rabidness there.

    I don't, I won't be voting for them and haven't voted for them. People who don't support FFG can still see the huge, huge problems with SF.

    FFG are terrible in Government. SF are terrible in Government, because we can see that in NI and on councils they do/did have dominant control of.



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