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Election to be called Fri - predict outcome

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,062 ✭✭✭MFPM


    Of course you can have that opinion of Murphy but it's hardly objective given your own politics. You'd also need to provide evidence of this spoofing not just cast aspersions. If the people who vote for him don't think he has any regard for them one wonders why they vote for him?

    Brid Smith has been an activist in her community for decades, again you may not like her or her politics but to dismiss her as a 'mouthpiece' is unfair in my view.

    Ginormous has done important work in his community but also he's been brave in pushing difficult and challenging issues like medical cannabis and 'assisted dying' that many in other parties wouldn't touch..



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,609 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Childcare under this government is ready to collapse. The caps on grant rates are far too low and don't take into account rising costs of just about everything. It has never been harder to get a childcare place now. Many childcare businesses are no longer viable.

    Not something I would put on the green CV as a pro



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,186 ✭✭✭wazzzledazzle


    I still have family from Tallaght Central and i'm from Tallaght Central originally, now i know from first hand experience the only visible TD seen around knocking about and who seem to generally give a **** are Lahart & Brophy, I always voted Charlie O'Connor back in the day and you'd regularly bump in to him for a chat and he'd ask how things were and anything he could do to help, although the chap is a gent.

    But ye, Paul Murphy, that "working class hero" from the streets of Tallaght…oh wait, where is he from, Goatstown?, ah but he had a tough time in school……..oh wait, that fee paying private school.

    Don't make me laugh, that fcuker is only in the game to suit himself. Jumped all over the water protest, the peoples champion. Big stupid happy head on him when Burton was about to be lynched.

    But ye, you'll regularly see him around Cloonmore and Kilatlown helping the kids getting their runners down from those lines that accidently flew up there…………….. 😉



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,042 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Its a bridge that helps young folks buy their first home. If there is a slight uplift in prices in cheaper areas as a result, thats a fair trade off for a couple in their twenties or thirties to buy a home they otherwise could never afford, because they dont have a deposit.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,849 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    That and other schemes that give money to buyers do nothing in the current squeezed market except to push up prices for everyone. As any economist would (and do) tell the government if you a apply a demand side solution to a supply side problem you will get price inflation.

    They have done it so many times now that it's hard to not be cynical about it and come to the conclusion that it's simply government policy to keeping pushing up house prices - in order to keep the home owner voter happy.



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  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 42,846 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    The HTB is yet another scheme that only applies to new builds so the target market pretty much all are going to avail of it. As those looking to buy now have more money available to buy a house, you can be assured that selling prices went up similarly!

    I see new houses near me in Leixlip selling for far more than existing builds and the HTB is partly to blame.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,042 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    In a lot of cases the scheme is bridging the deposit for the buyer. Without the scheme, the beneficiary couldnt get on the ladder in the first place, which means more upward pressure on rents.

    We need more supply, I think everyone agrees with that.

    Supply is increasing and a scheme that enables young couples to get on the ladder helps them stay and settle in Ireland. If it pushes up prices by 20k or 30k, it's still a home they can now afford.

    If the house is 30k cheaper but the buyers dont have the full desposit, they can't afford it and it likely gets purchased by an AHB, local council, investor or a landlord.

    There wouldnt be any significant drop in prices anyway, were the scheme to be removed. It only applies to new homes and it doesnt even cover the average Dublin priced property.

    Barely any new schemes are built for sale, so it isnt directly accessing many schemes, especially in the Dublin area.

    The govt plan to increase the cap above 500k, to help the scheme reach average priced homes in Dublin.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 20,358 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Council houses were built in huge numbers all over Dublin in the fifties, sixties and seventies and then cam to a shuddering halt, and what we had were sold off at a huge discount. It was then house prices started rocketing at many times inflation.

    Now, get back building huge quantities of council (social) houses and the problem will be solved.

    I believe, for a stable property market, there needs to be about 30% social (subsidised) houses available to those that need it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 117 ✭✭Joe286


    At the moment I know a couple with a joint income of over 110k. They can't get a mortgage. No scheme out there to help them that doesn't require large savings they don't have.

    I also know a developer who is being leant money by the state. The banks won't loan money for housing. The state is charging 10%. Higher than the rates previously charged by the bank

    I know County councils paying 50k above what they should be.

    There is no simple solution and circumstance vary



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 117 ✭✭Joe286


    A bit simplistic. Housing standards are way higher. Plus the councils contracted out to builders. The Irish economy is about 100 % bigger now



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,849 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Whatever small chance SF had of holding onto Brian Stanley's seat is now over



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,239 ✭✭✭✭zell12


    Blank wooden hoarding stands have appeared at busy junctions in my area ..Really handy for the bonfires tonight



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,186 ✭✭✭wazzzledazzle


    I wonder how many of the huge numbers he got to vote for him last time around are party aligned? I wouldn't have said a huge number considering it has never been a SF heartland



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,366 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    Those days are over I think. Most people want to own their own home. Only the bottom 10% want council houses is my observation.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,851 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    We don't even need to build in those numbers.

    We have the housing equivalent of bed blockers - people, including a TD, earning over €100k and still paying a pittance for council housing.

    The second issue is that people don't pay rent, so Councils no longer have the finance to build more houses, which is the model that worked for decades.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 20,358 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    No, those days are not over by a long shot.

    There are a lot of renters and homeless who need to be housed in subsidised housing. I would expect the figure to be about 30%.

    On the question of people occupying social housing but being outside the qualifying means, they should pay the economic rent, as happens in Austria, for example. That should make it cheaper for them to move on.

    The no rent means notice to quit, or a charge at source on their pay packet.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,366 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    The numbers in emergency accommodation is tiny compared to the rest of the population. No where near 30%.

    Most people can afford to buy a property.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 20,358 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    No they cannot, and why should they be required to?

    If interest rates climb to 7% or 10%, then house purchase disappears for most unless the house prices crash.

    If a family splits up, they need two houses (or homes) so who provides for the second home?

    30% is a good budgeting number. This would cover the old and retired, the young and yet to get established, and the poor who are on low wages, or on uncertain employment, like unemployed, long term ill, or disabled in some way. It ould also include those who end up as single parents with no certain support.

    Not everyone can afford to purchase a house, no matter how much they might want to buy one.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,851 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    That doesn't happen here and is one of the biggest blockages to the use of the existing stock of social housing.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,366 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    I would say a large majority can afford to buy a property. The State encourages a property owning culture and that's one of the reasons why waiting lists are so high for council houses. The long wait forces people to work harder and buy a property.



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  • Posts: 133 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Rte saying the last day of scheduled business in the Dail is 8th November. Bodes well for a visit to the aras that evening or next morning



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,609 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    AHBs and councils can and do outbid most FTB. If they want to purchase in an estate, they will. The existence of HTB does not mean more owner occupiers versus council bought houses, it means the same limited pool of owner occupiers bought homes now cost even more.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 20,358 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    70% is a large percentage that can afford to buy a property, but that leaves 30% that can not.

    Most under thirty will not have built up enough income base to support a mortgage, nor enough capital to fund a deposit.

    A significant number of relations break-up leaving a single parent with children to care for with insufficient support. Social housing is there for this.

    If you take the amount of one's income that should provide for housing (excluding utilities) should not exceed 30%, then that is the realm of social housing. Of course two earners can easily exceed that figure, but not singles.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,849 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    No. No they cannot.

    There is an entire generation of people in their late 20s, 30s and even older, stuck living with their parents because the cost of housing is completely out of their reach.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,051 ✭✭✭BailMeOut


    numbers would indicated that mortgage drawdowns from first time buyer are at the highest level since 2007



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,886 ✭✭✭pureza


    Perhaps we should follow the korean model where appartments in not so great areas of Seoul cost more than a million euro"s and the government had to guarantee 60yr mortgages

    This would be in a G20 country,which we are not



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,621 ✭✭✭Augme




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,186 ✭✭✭wazzzledazzle


    For this bollox alone she deserves a fine

    They had an image of Ms Seery Kearney, who urged runners to “keep it going, stride by stride”, encouraging them to become “stronger by the mile”



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,366 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    The utter cringe of politicians trying to say anything to get a vote. We've another 5 weeks of it to go.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,849 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    In isolation that statistic doesn't mean much and it certainly doesn't prove the assertion that "most people can afford to buy a property".



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