Election to be called Fri - predict outcome

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122755871#Comment_122755871

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122755893#Comment_122755893

Extra buyers at any price point causes prices to rise.

The only way HTB does not push prices up is if nobody with HTB can afford anything (i.e the scheme goes unused), or there is such a glut of houses that without HTB buyers the houses would go unsold.

Neither of those are true, so HTB must be pushing up prices

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122756680#Comment_122756680

You’re mixing up whether HTB pushes up prices in absolute terms (yes it does) vs it is pushing up prices relative to last year (10% YoY you quoted).

The power of HTB is lower in 2024 than 2023. Therefore, in isolation, it is deflationary relative to 2023 (I.e. YoY)…but it is still inflationary in an absolute sense.

Very basic example. Year 1. Average house prices 500k. HTB given to every single person of €50k. House prices go to €550k. HTB impact is +10%.
Year 2. House prices grow to €575k due to wage inflation. HTB stays at €50k.

In absolute terms HTB is now causing 8.7% inflation.

But YoY inflation without HTB would be (525/500) = 5%
but with HTB It’s

(575/550) = 4.5%.

So it is reducing the YoY inflation rate. HTB is not a key factor in our 10% YoY inflation.

wazzzledazzle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122755242#Comment_122755242

Blanch, you couldn't be further from the mark. I already stated my voting intention previously in this thread.(FF) SF have shot themselves in the foot the last 12 months and the games up for them for the for-seeable future imo.

I'm very much a local candidate voter anyway, so although my intention is to vote FF, depending on what i may (or may not) hear on the door step, i could be swayed.(although not by SF or FG)

MFPM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122755734#Comment_122755734

I'm not dismissing them,I'm arguing that simply extrapolating a trend from tgem and then mechanically applying it to a national election is potentially problematic.

wazzzledazzle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122756129#Comment_122756129

I'm actually very interested to see how Labour do. I'm not so sure that champagne socialist of a leader will be re-elected, hopefully not anyway. Labour need to re-evaluate what they are as a party. Are they a party for the worker like they used to be back in the day? They certainly are not.

There is a chance they could be smashed in to oblivion, then let's see what happens

MFPM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122756908#Comment_122756908

As much as I'd share your glee at Bacik losing, I suspect she'll hold on.

L1011

Clare Daly running in Mary Lou's neck of the woods.

Don't think she'll get in there; her reason for not running in her old place is legit and honorable - the Councillor there in her sort-of-party topped the poll in his area and is already running.

wazzzledazzle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122757294#Comment_122757294

Yep, only because SF will suffer, spreading more of the share which she will benefit from, and FG should win 2 seats i'd imagine. FF 1, meaning Greens will miss out, although i think some additional territories may have been added to the cons

wazzzledazzle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122757302#Comment_122757302

Horrid - I can't imagine there is a hope in hell she'll be elected. Well i hope not anyway. I'd sooner P Murphy win his seat than to see the like of her (and coppinger) back

MFPM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122757333#Comment_122757333

Great news! Tough ask but hopefully she makes it!

wazzzledazzle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122757416#Comment_122757416

I know you have a soft spot for her 😂

MFPM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122757302#Comment_122757302

She's been weighing this up for a while having being approached. Nothing to lose for her and while a big ask, she stands a reasonable chance of making it.

padd b1975

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122752848#Comment_122752848

Jaysus, good old Coppinger.

Last I heard, she was calling for what sounded suspiciously like affirmative action in the judiciary.

I reasonably asked her how many current barristers with the relevant experience to be appointed were people of colour?

Blocked.

MFPM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122757421#Comment_122757421

If nothing else it will p!ss off the NATO shrills.

Gusser09

Homes completed so far in 2024 down on same time in 2023

LOL. It's ok thought. They are promising to double figures in the next few years. Right before a general election. Haha.

They are an unmitigated failure.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122756680#Comment_122756680

You are over estimating the impact of HTB. The average home in Dublin sells for 560k, which means HTB buyers cant purchase an average home anyway, so they arent impacting the sale price of those homes, as they are unable to afford them.

Therefore, the scheme is going unused for average and above average home sales in Dublin, which fits your first description of HTB not impacting prices.

In DLR, the median price of a house sale is 620k, again; way about HTB limits.

The principal reason these home sale values are rising so fast is because there are enough potential buyers that can afford more than the asking price and there are not enough houses for sale vs the number of propsective buyers.

HTB buyers dont exist in this market, so they aren't influencing it.

The key driver to solving the problem and cooling the price rises is, and always has been, to build more homes.

hotmail.com

Clare Daly confirmed for Dublin Central.

Big trouble for Neasa Hourigan. She must be a goner now. Gary Gannon not certain either.

Augme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122756908#Comment_122756908

I think Bacik has a good chance of being reelected. With Eamon Ryan stepping down. I don't think all of his votes will automatically go to Chu and she will benefit from the ones that don't, the most. I think she is also helped by the fact there isn't a strong SocDems candidate in that area either, Eoin Hayes was elected first time to the Council this year.

I don't expect much improvement across the board for them though. They still seem to love to being under FGs wing and having Alan Kelly around still harms them. They've done nothing to really shed their turncoat image and electing Bacik certainly didn't help with that.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122757902#Comment_122757902

If HTB was having no impact on market then the scheme would have no drawdowns - that is not true though, people are using it to purchase.

Just because people using HTB are not buying average priced homes in Dublin or DLR does not mean they aren't in the market - if their affordability is limited then they will just be adding to demand in lower tiers of the market. It's still price inflation

Brussels Sprout

Dublin Central's gonna be fun:

4 seats.

Candidates so far

• Deputy Mary Lou McDonald (Sinn Féin)
• Deputy Paschal Donohoe (Fine Gael)
• Deputy Neasa Hourigan (Green Party)
• Deputy Gary Gannon (Social Democrats)
• Senator Mary Fitzpatrick (Fianna Fáil)
• Senator Marie Sherlock (Labour)
• Cllr. Janice Boylan (Sinn Féin)
• Cllr. Malachy Steenson (Independent)
• Clare Daly (Independents4Change) (announced in the past 24 hours)
• Ian Smyth (Aontú)

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122757863#Comment_122757863

FF created the housing crisis. FG made it much worse. Now FFG are pretending to care about it with futuristic magic numbers that aren't credible. Those numbers show they are failing massively.

Our educated young people are leaving in droves. I see it everywhere.

wazzzledazzle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122758620#Comment_122758620

Paschal the only certainty there

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122758741#Comment_122758741

As much as many on this forum would wish otherwise MLMD will be safe as well.

It's for the other 2 seats that the real battle will be over.

MFPM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122758741#Comment_122758741

Hardly! MLMD could implode and still win. FG have learned their lesson from 2020 and only standing 1 so Donohue will be fine. Two seats in play and Hourigan, Gannon, Fitzpatrick, Sherlock, Daly and possibly Steenson vying for it. Don't see Hutch joining the fray, though I could be wrong. Very hard to call. I suspect Gannon will hold on, unfortunately, and then it depends on who is ahead between the others.

L1011

Not seen whether Christy Burke is running there or not, and I'd expect a PBP and maybe Workers candidate also. Could be a very long count.

AlanG

Mary Lou is very safe, likely poll well above Pascal. In Dublin west RoG still has a very good chance given that it will be a 5 seat area.

wazzzledazzle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122758835#Comment_122758835

Hutch won't be running, he's doing some porridge anyway in Spain at the moment

Yes, actually MLMD of course will win a seat, i'd imagine Gannon will be safe, he seems popular in that Cons.

Notmything

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122757302#Comment_122757302

She was on newstalk earlier. Surprisingly honest about her chances.

Then she went and when challenged about being pro Putin she denied it but also said that Russia was provoked into invading the Ukraine and Ukraine should look for a ceasefire even if it means giving up sovereign territory.

Wonder will her former partner in crime Wallace run

hotmail.com

Mary Fitzpatrick has been trying to get into the Dail for years and years.

Dick phelan

I can only see FF/FG losing seats once the recession comes. They'll comfortably still have the seats this time around.