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Harris Vs Trump 2024 US Presidential election - read the warning in the OP posted 18/09/24

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,048 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    Isn't the opposite true? California and NY, for example, are completely ignored by the Republicans just as the Dems ignore Red states. The EC gives far too much-weighted power to a minimal number of voters. A vote in California is not worth the same as in Georgia. How is that democratic?

    It makes sense in Senators, but a vote for POTUS should be popular vote I would have throught



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 41,622 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    I don't think it makes sense for the Senate. About 290,000 Wymoming voters have one Senator as do 24 million Californians. I appreciate the need for balance but this is just cynical.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,558 ✭✭✭✭Penn


    Yup, and that's why it'll never happen, because the GOP knows they're screwed when it comes to the popular vote. It's not about representing lower-populated states, it's that they know they'll almost certainly never win the popular vote nationally any more.

    The electoral college system and the way it is now only benefits the GOP/Red states, and the Dems will likely never have enough political advantage to change the system in any tangible way.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,048 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    On the matter of who will win, I don't think anybody knows. Nobody trusts the polls, the media or the candidates. So on what can people place their opinions?

    I do think, however, that down the ballot the GOP will lose. While many voters will vote for Trump no matter what, the same does not hold true down the ballot. So I think there is a very real possibility that Trump will win POTUS but lose power in the House and Senate, or at least have such reduced numbers as to make anything radical very difficult to get through. We saw the clusferf33k that the GOP made of the House speaker votes and I think that will play out very badly for the GOP in terms of voting. Abortion etc play a much larger role in those votes than in POTUS.

    Trump operates above that and his vote isn't impacted by that, but we saw how useless Trump was in his 1st term when he actually had the majority in both the House and Senate.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,005 ✭✭✭scottser


    I get your point, but I believe that an election loss will fracture the Republican party irredeemably rather than set up a Dem v Rep civil war. Traditional, conservative Republicans like Cheney et al have seen their party co-opted by the MAGA fringe and when Trump loses it's going to initiate a massive identity crisis for them. When Trump steps down, the power vacuum will be enormous and all those fault lines within the party are going to diverge further. The GOP will either fracture or eat itself and to me, that's popcorn time.

    Besides Harris, if she wins, has the forces of the States behind her to ensure that peace and security is maintained; MAGA are not going to go to war with the National Guard or the Police so they'll likely target people of colour, their homes, schools, businesses etc. in a swathe of domestic terrorism. It will not be pretty, whatever the outcome of this election.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,558 ✭✭✭✭Penn


    Yeah it's equally stupid. In theory it makes sense because it's a case where the House of Representatives (which is based more on populations due to different districts etc) represent the people, while the Senate represents the States. So each State should theoretically have the same voting power, while the House represents the population.

    Though of course, in practice it gives such a huge advantage to Senators of smaller states and therefore voting blocks in party lines. And even then you have gerrymandering which can skew the House districts and therefore get elected representatives who like the EC weren't voted for by the majority of people. It's all such f*ckery.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,005 ✭✭✭scottser


    Literally nobody said Biden was in perfect health. Nobody. This thread was more or less united in disbelief that the best the American political system could throw up was these two geriatric old farts to govern the most powerful country on earth for the next four years.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,973 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Make up something false, attribute it to the "other side" - I wonder where that mentality has come from.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,807 ✭✭✭✭banie01


    Also Harris, and I am hopeful it will be a decent margin too.

    The current mainstream polls being neck & neck yet also imputing a 3 to 5% margin of error gives me hope that this time? DonTheCon™ is over performing in polling.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,725 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    one woman died in Ireland and a referendum was had.

    I’ve lost count of how many Americans. This is simply the latest. Happened the other night.

    https://www.propublica.org/article/nevaeh-crain-death-texas-abortion-ban-emtala?utm_campaign=propublica-sprout&utm_content=1730413907&utm_medium=social&utm_source=threads

    It will be harder to ignore for them this time: she was a white girl.

    It would be real nice of Texas to flip blue. The cruelty is preventable.



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  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,728 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    I can't see Texas flipping.

    I'll take Ted Cruz being beaten and be very happy with that result.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,725 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    that could flip the senate and possibly mean Dems could break the filibuster to codify roe



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,637 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    Amendment. It's a role prescribed in the constitution



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,580 ✭✭✭McFly85


    I think it’s too simplistic to say that removing the electoral college hands elections to the democrats in perpetuity - what it does definitely mean though is that the GOP couldn’t survive as-is and would need to change into a legitimate opposition party that would need to take into account the entire electorate rather than being an extreme opposite.

    Right now the votes are weighted in their favour and has allowed them to move to the extreme right while still retaining the same power regardless of the electorate. Changing that would be no bad thing.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,635 ✭✭✭✭LambshankRedemption


    Ive read it about 5 times today alone that Harris supports open borders. She does not. Like Biden, she wants to come up with a solution that does not involve detainment camps. She helped write the partisan bill that a certain someone torpedoed.

    Who will win? I am quietly confident Harris will win. Ive read on this thread the theory of the "Shy Trump Voter". What does any Trump voter have to be shy about? Conversely, if you are pro-choice in some parts of the US, your own life can be in danger if certain people found out. So you would not be shouting from the roof tops that you plan to vote for Harris. Indeed, if someone called you out of the blue asking who you plan to vote for you might say Trump just to protect yourself. Which could explain the neck and neck nature of the polls.

    So I have confidence in there being many shy Harris voters out there.

    All of the prominent Republicans endorsing Harris will have to count for something.

    The A-listers, endorsing Trump include Hulk Hogan, Kid Rock, Dr Phil, Mel Gibson and Buzz Aldrin.

    Supporting Harris, and the list is long, includes Taylor Swift, Jennifer Lopez, Madonna, Beyonce and all of the Avengers(actors).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 154 ✭✭etuzyuk


    The people who came up with the electoral college system went to great pains to protect against corruption in the election process and ensure fairness and prevent a small minority of influential people having undue power over who gets elected.

    It was a great system in a very different time. Whether it has become obsolete in very different modern times I don't know but any change to it will be seen by many as a move by very influential people trying to have undue power over who gets elected, the very thing it was set up to protect against.

    Doesn't matter if that would be an unfair summation or if the new system would serve better. With the current political climate in the US there could never be a civil agreement. It would be seen as one upmanship by either political party, a call to arms for one and a rub your nose in to to another.

    Might be best to leave it alone for now, it's not that bad a system.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,807 ✭✭✭✭banie01


    Land doesn't vote. People do.

    Holding the Electoral college up as an example of good representation? Fundamentally misunderstands what representation should be.

    There is far more wrong with representative democracy in the US than just the EC. All votes in federal elections should carry equal weight, particularly in Presidential elections. The limit of 435 members of the House is archaic and grossly unrepresentative. The weight afforded all states even those that are mostly empty and unpopulated by affording them 2 senators? Yet that ensures Puerto Rico (and other US territories )doesn't have any voting representatives in HOC, nor Senators, nor votes in the EC. Is undemocratic. Affording DC 3 Electoral college votes but only 1 congressman and no Senators is unrepresentative because, as I mentioned earlier, land doesn't vote. It means 5.5million DC residents have 1 congressman (woman) 3 EC votes and no senators. Whilst Wyoming, with a population of 540k, has 1 congressman, 2 senators & 3 EC votes.

    Why is a Wyoming resident's Presidential vote weighted at x11 the value of a DC resident?

    Why is a Puerto Ricans resident not considered worthy of a presidential vote at all?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 65 ✭✭Crazy Davey


    I fear for the mental state of liberal journalists like Fintan O’Toole and Una Mulally and very many in RTÉ when Trump wins



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,889 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    It's a fine line. All 50 states prohibit electioneering at a polling site, but the definitions are a bit different by state. Almost all states, for example, you can't bring any signs or flyers or whatnot within X distance (100-250feet or whatever) of the voting location. For some of the ones which allow you to wear partisan things, you get in, cast your vote, and get out. Hanging around would count as electioneering.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,472 ✭✭✭Lewis_Benson


    I'd be more inclined to fear for Americans if he wins.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,032 ✭✭✭✭everlast75


    Elect a clown... Expect a circus



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,558 ✭✭✭✭Penn


    Why? He'll give them ample material for articles/columns.

    People seriously have a weird notion of how they imagine Dems/liberals (even those not in America) might react if Trump wins, all seemingly based on an image of one woman in a pink hat 8 years ago.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,032 ✭✭✭✭everlast75


    Charlie Kirk here, weighing in on the "garbage" comment by Biden and without a scent of irony, says what the rest of us think...

    Elect a clown... Expect a circus



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,836 ✭✭✭Nermal


    He's saying that people who beat the drum for war deserve a stint on the front line. An opinion most thinking people share.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,016 ✭✭✭✭briany


    I think that fracture has already occurred, but it occurred in the form of a gradual purge as opposed to a united bloc of members getting up and leaving it in protest.

    But more importantly than that, Trump's popularity within the party isn't fundamentally predicated on his ability to win elections. His standing among his supporters cannot be defined by the parameters of a system they're already suspicious of, if not outright hostile towards. This group obviously doesn't encompass the entire Republican base, but it covers enough of it to ensure that Trump will never fall into political oblivion. For these people, it's Trump's ability to create chaos, and provoke indignation and outrage among their political opponents that makes him the man.

    And the other thing is that if the party didn't fracture after Trump's previous loss and the subsequent events of Jan 6th, then that leaves an extremely high water mark in terms of an event so shocking that it forces reasonable Republicans to unify and move against Trump and MAGA.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,294 ✭✭✭Oscar_Madison
    #MEGA MAKE EUROPE GREAT AGAIN


    For previous elections certainly - but I’m not convinced the round of celebrity endorsements this time around is having the impact it might normally have. It “feels”, and sorry that’s the only evidence I have, it feels like none of the traditional ways of winning an election such as a candidate with little or no baggage, stated policies, respectful to all - will work this time around.
    When I see ethnic voters who shouldn’t be in an asses roar of red, state that they’re voting Trump along side many muslins who are advocating a protest vote against Harris - I just think the “normal rules” and normal efforts are just not working this time around .

    And PS- your point about Harris and her immigration policy pretty much proves no one is listening - she might have been clear what her policy was, but has anyone actually “heard” it - that’s what you’re up against



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,718 ✭✭✭paddyisreal


    Thats just authentic frontier jibberish brother johnson



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,455 ✭✭✭All_in_Flynn


    My head says that there is no way Trump can win this. I'm in the same boat as others in that I think the polls are probably wrong.

    However, the fact that there is 70 odd million people in America willing to vote for Trump is a damning criticism of the country itself. There is a gigantic education and and cultural issue in the country. I'm not even sure it's fixable.

    It will be a sad moment for the world that sorry excuse as a human can again fool the nation into electing him. He doesn't care one dot about any of them. It's purely for himself.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,032 ✭✭✭✭everlast75


    Elect a clown... Expect a circus



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,635 ✭✭✭✭LambshankRedemption


    Listen, I've never been convinced that celebrity endorsements have an impact. That said, Taylor Swift is different. Her endorsement is instantly thousands of votes for Harris. Probably not enough to swing the election, but bona fide swifties will emulate her any way they can.

    Then there is the shy Harris voter I spoke about earlier.

    I agree this time around the rules have changed.



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