Harris Vs Trump 2024 US Presidential election - read the warning in the OP posted 18/09/24

He might do (I've yet to hear it) but the point is he is hardly the person to be lecturing others in honesty between spouses.

It's just that in American politics especially, right now, we're seeing an awful lot of 'you can't tell me about X when you've done it yourself' and few could argue that this has led to a more stable political environment there.

It leads us to a most interesting philosophical question and one so great, it's probably worthy of its own thread:

In moral matters, what is the most important thing? The principle, or the moral standing to give one the right to lecture on the principle? 

Not so much about Gingrich, here, but it's almost like a little snapshot of the kind of moral equivocation that is giving MAGA, at least, the self-granted licence to go as low as they feel like, and one thing I think would help take American politics out of its fatal-looking tailspin would be to get back to a common principle as opposed to scoring gotchas on the individual giving voice to that principle at a particular time.

Just my thoughts.

its similar to how the EU works to protect small countries like ireland from large dominant states like germany, france etc.

This is such a stupid post.

Yeah she'll undoubtedly win the popular vote, but probably not by the same amount as Biden in 2020. If anything, I'd say neither side will get as many votes as they did in 2020. Covid was such a monumental event that it meant it had to be made easier for people to vote early, use mail-in ballots etc, but it also encouraged far more people to vote due to the management of Covid and the events of 2020. Even though early & mail-in voting is still available in many ways, I'm not sure people are as pushed to cast their vote.

Certainly though that works in Harris' favour more than Trump's, because those who would be more encouraged to vote for her compared to Biden would be those affected by abortion rights and those who were uninspired by Biden in 2020 and would have been even less inspired by him if he was still candidate now.

I could have posted that very same post months ago - I’m just not so sure now - when you get people voting for Trump who profess to “hating Trump” , there’s just something way more going on.

The ethnic vote is also down compared to previous elections- extraordinarily Trump is getting a bigger piece of that pie than previous elections - it’s insanity considering what he actually thinks of anyone not white but there ya go- I don’t think you can legislate for that type of voter behaviour.

As for secret Harris voters voting to keep abortion as an option or secret Trump haters voting for Harris? Again both speculated about months ago but with the polls the way they are, I reckon all of the above has been taken into account and more besides

I'm in a very similar mindset. I sense that she'll win but it won't be by a lot, and like in 2020 we won't know for sure until late into the week.

There is also the possiblity of a repeat of the 2016 stupidity which will not be gone from my head until we are done with next week. That possibility is still there.

However on the flipside, one daydream I have is an early North Carolina result where Harris wins the state. NC reports earlier, and if Harris actually gets the state, the Trump path to victory is severly kneecapped earlier on in the reporting. One even more fanciful daydream I have is Florida flipping. That's pretty much game over, we go from "kneecapping" to "removing an entire leg", but with the added bonus of this being the state where Donnie lives and where he likely will be during the results.

That state flipping is pretty unlikely, but not impossible

@ancapailldorcha

She seems to have no interest in pushing anything remotely radical

She can't, is the simple answer. Some podcast I was listening to said that the coalition that Harris has built spans Alexandria Ocasio Cortez on one end, all the way to Dick Cheney on the other.

That is a pretty wide spectrum that will contain a diverse number of interests and any attempt to specifically please one part of the coalition will píss another bit of it off. It is therefore highly fragile - a political house of cards.

Whatever else we can say about Trump, we can say that his voter coalition is much stronger in terms of cohesion. He doesn't have to worry about his campaign team putting a comma in the wrong place on a written statement about Israel/Palestine or something. Whether his coalition of voters is larger in the key states, however, is a question we'll have to wait until some time after November 5th to find out.

I think Harris wins, reasons are (nothing to really back this up, just my own thoughts, though many have been expressed before)

• There's a lot more voters, who, when push comes to shove, will vote for her, especially younger women in republican households.
• New voters will more likely lean her way. And there's a lot of them.
• Like all these things, the extremes (MAGA) are much louder and more vocal. The other side is always the quieter one
• The MAGA turnout will be high, but those with less extreme views might just stay at home

I even think Florida might be in play. I know it's one of the few where Trump actually increased his margin in 2020, but Clinton got reasonably close there (1.2%, approx. 100k votes).

The worst part about the whole thing, is that even if she wins she has to win big, probably even greater than Biden. Trump wins by 5/10 ECs then it's all MAGA are great, Trump is great, it's the biggest win ever. Harris wins by 5/10 then the court cases over the stolen election will probably be still going on in Jan.

Flame retardant suit is on, waiting for the outrage 😀

Causation and correlation my friend….

would be nice but they can’t because the constitution lays out the eligibility to run for president.

And yet because of the electoral votes which are attributed to some states, the majority of campaigning focuses on 7 States. So large swathes of the country are still being ignored. And when you have someone who could lose the popular vote by say 7 million people but win the EC and the Presidency, then the majority of voters are being ignored.

At the very least there should be some metric where additional EC votes are awarded to the winner of the overall popular vote, like 10 EC votes. But the idea that the deciding votes pretty much boil down to about 250k people throughout 6-8 states regardless of the popular vote throughout the country, is monumentally stupid.

I posted last night around this aspect - Harris does have polices albeit mostly Joe Bidens policies but besides that, Trump has grand statements- and he’ll “fix” everything - it’s very hard to compete with that if the public aren’t willing to be in listening mode and discourse mode