FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST
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Todays 12z is certainly feeling confident that we will have warmer than average conditions over the next 2 weeks, temperatures generally between 1 and 3C above average over the coming fortnight. Very little rainfall until the 6th of November.
This is the sort of weather pattern I would have given anything for during the summer.
A total high pressure fest and very mild air generally from the south-east.
At the very end of the run we see signs of perhaps the Atlantic returning and high pressure receeding.
If the 12z verifies in full this would let to a very mild and dry first half to November….if only this was July or August.
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not much change in the GFS FI charts, mostly high pressure dominated and temperatures between 2 and 5C above normal for the time of year. If only we had an ensemble graph like this during the summer!
First half of November is likely to be relatively dry and temperatures well above normal for the time of year.
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I'll take it, Gonzo. Garden is sopping wet. Need to get into it for one final cut. Rain totals look relatively small up to midweek next week at least abnd for probably another week beyond that.
The Atlantic also doesnt look overly active.
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The ECM showing the Jet Stream continuing it's mostly Northerly route and keeping under the influence mainly from areas of HP and keeping relatively mild. GFS similar. Currently showing rainfall amounts remaining low enough and only a few mm for parts of the country further East for the next 10 days. Fairly quiet spell of weather.
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just for fun todays GFS 12z is a bit of an outlier with 2 days of a very cold northerly with -7 uppers across the country briefly and some wintry precipitation.
If the above was to verify that would have a fairly significant windchill with winds howling down from a long fetch unstable northerly!
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Models have been consistently showing little rain out to 10 days . All been hinting of getting colder, ECM about the most consistent I would think and in the latest runs showing the coldest and even a bit wintery in Northern counties with frosty nights next weekend. Will see if a trend for cold martializes.
GFS showing cold spells out well into FI and remarkably low rainfall even out to + 384hrs.
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The GFS 6z is almost an outlier but it has a small amount of support, however this far out there is a huge range of scatter from extremely mild weather like we currently have to charts such as todays 6z operational and everything else in between including the Atlantic coming back. But I'm sure the Galway Beo will be using todays GFS 6z to say Met Eireann points towards an imminent Irish winter snowmageddon.
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Atlantic certainly won't come raging back. Temperatures will drop to more seasonal or slightly below values by end of next weekend. I think a westerly flow (with a polar maritime influence at times) is likely beyond that but not looking too unsettled
at least
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There again with the ECM today, certainly worth keeping an eye on, big pattern change could be on the cards, interesting to see that big Greenland HP develop.
That would be a cold , windy and wintry LP in the early days after next weekend if it materialized, out at the end of the run and might not even be on the next output but something to track anyway or something similar might show up.
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Great to see eye candy in several models. Icon 12z doesn't go as far as the ECM or GFS but showing signs of thing shaping up nicely by the 17th of November.
In the above chart however, I would like to see the high pressure go a bit further north and move it a bit further east away from the Canadian side.
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Said in the Winter thread that we weren't a million miles off the first chase, if we get a good ECM 12Z tonight then I reckon we're only a thousand miles off, or less!
GFS 12z is short lived ultimately in terms of proper cold, but it's an incredibly clean evolution one could only wish for. Nothing is ever that easy for us so twists and shortwaves to come. Just look at the flow below on the GFS N.Hemisphere around Day 7-9, a one way express from the Arctic! You can tell how burned we've all been in the past because worse charts than today has had this thread going at multiple pages a day.
The push of heights NW towards Greenland is barely even at Day 5…
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ECM not as good as others at first, initial push NW of the high doesn't compare and the resulting cold plunge not as good. LP forms over Iceland and drops south over us which means less cold air is introduced in the flow.
However, getting towards Day 10, a BIG reload is preparing with heights heading back towards Greenland and severe cold on the march south and is only going one way if we saw beyond +240. So, not as good to start but excellent by Day 10. Oh a familiar tale..
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ECM 12Z continuing the cold trend and the GFS 12Z just rolling out is starting to look more similar now. Much colder airmass spreading down over the country from Saturday. The ECM showing getting a bit wintery around the coasts and probably going to see some hail and sleet showers especially along Atlantic coastal counties with maybe a few white mountain tops and more so further North, possibility of bands of precipitation also and we might be wondering in a few days how they might interact with the cold air.
Temperatures falling back slowly in general as the week goes and by the weekend getting into the single figures and becoming frosty by night and currently the ECM showing it becoming more increasingly widespread frosty over the weekend into the following week.
GEM very much like the ECM, UKMO only up to Sat taking the shape of the ECM and GFS, ICON up to +180hrs ( Mon 14th ) has the cold airmass firmly over the country.
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Both the gfs and the gem, which is usually the voice of reason, showing the polar vortex completely displaced over the Eastern part of the pole. Whatever about cold, its always nice to turn off the Atlantic for another while. Certainly an interesting period coming up.
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