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Sinn Fein and how do they form a government dilemma

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,779 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    You know what they say about opinions. They’re only that.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,861 ✭✭✭Dr Robert


    Then vast vast majority of people want a united Ireland. However the costs particularly the insane amount of public serviced employees need to be ironed out.

    Nobody wants the bitter xenophobia scumbags that attach themselves to both sides or a rotten orange order. However, there latter will be obviously be an integral part of an agreement, as well as a different national flag. I can't imagine a tri colour will be be the flag of a united Ireland.

    There's thoughts of orange walks and even commemorations for such a horrible organisation will be turn many a stomach.

    People want a united Ireland but don't necessarily want the NI baggage.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    They don't matter, because opinion polls on such issues are inconsistent and unreliable. An SoS can't make a major decision like that without concrete evidence, otherwise his judgement could be challenged in a judicial review and it would be more than embarrassing if his decision was overturned as irrational.

    He will need hard data.

    If 36.9% has only increased to 39.8% in 24 years, it will take until 2116 to reach 55%, given the same rate of progress. What is worrying from a nationalist point of view is that that progress has tailed off a lot in recent years since 2019, and at the reduced rate of progress, it could be 2216. Sitting around and waiting for the demographic dividend and berating everyone else, as SF is doing, is allowing the moment to pass.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,779 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    The SoS theorising has been debunked so many times with links to the courts rulings this is an out and out desperate lie now.
    The SoS can decide to call a poll if he/she so decides and without having to evidence why he/she called it. The highest court found he/she cannot be constrained.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Not going there with you always, but the court ruling was that he couldn't be made decide criteria in advance. However, like any other government decision, a decision to hold a border poll could be subject to a judicial review.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,779 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    She/He is not constrained.

    A judicial review will fail for that reason even if somebody is foolish enough to waste their money as we have seen before



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    They are not constrained in making the decision, but the decision can still be challenged, once made.

    That is the thing you do not understand. A non-decision cannot be challenged, but a decision can.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,629 ✭✭✭Augme


    There's a huge number of issues that woukd need to be ironed out and how that happens is very hard to tell. But the reality is a United Ireland is pretty much guaranteed to happen.

    "Opinion polls on a United Ireland don't matter when determining whether there should be a vote on a United Ireland." That's a truly fascinating take.

    Again, that a idea that a decision to have a vote on a United Ireland based on a poll that stated the majority of people would want a United Ireland would be deemed "irrational" in a judicial review makes no sense at all. "I've made a decision to hold a referendum on a United Ireland because it's clear in polls that the majority of people want this to happen" is pretty much about as rational as a decision one can get. The irrational decision would be not to allow it in fact.

    A further analysis of the 2022 results actually paints a better picture for the Nationalists, or parties that are in favour of a United Ireland.

    SF - 29%

    SDLP - 9%

    Aontu - 1%

    People before Profit - 1%

    A 40% vote for Nationalist parties. I'll be very surprised if that isn't closer to 50% in 25 years. SDLP performance is a worry though and they are leaking votes from nationalists to the Alliance party due to their poor performances.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    You don't understand that a middle ground is emerging that wants a separate identity for Northern Ireland within whatever future constitutional construct. That is killing both the union and the good republican vision.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,779 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Any decision can be challenged but no lawyer is going to unlock ‘she/he is not constrained’ and does not need to evidence why they made the decision.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,629 ✭✭✭Augme


    Of course a middle ground is emerging as the Unionist vote is imploding. The increase for a United Ireland is still clear and obvious though and is only going in one direction.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Comical Ali stuff, ignoring the new paradigm.

    A United Ireland has stalled, that is what the figures say.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    No its not

    if anything in Ireland people are getting less and less concerned about a United Ireland.

    Then you take a look at the amount of people interested if they have to pay taxes. It's a massive swing to not want it.

    It would look like in Northern Ireland, people just want a Northern ireland.

    In terms of SF talking about a United Ireland, dont make me laugh. THe one party in Ireladn and Northern Ireland which has managed to burn relationships with every single party they engage with. They are one of the biggest hinderances to a United Ireland, remove them and we would have a better chance



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    I agree, most people in Northern Ireland just want a Northern Ireland that works. Until that happens, they won't look at anything else.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,629 ✭✭✭Augme


    Comical Ali is right. The support for a United has increased significantly since the GFA.

    I appreciate FGers have no interest in a United Ireland. They never have and never will tbf. As for the rest of Ireland, again, the polls would say you're completely wrong.

    An Ipsos B&A poll for the Irish Times and ARINS published in November 2023 revealed support for a United Ireland at 64 per cent, with just 16 per cent against.

    https://www.ipsos.com/en-ie/towards-united-ireland-it-now-or-never



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    "Enough time has now passed for the idea to be at least discussed, but still a majority of the population in Northern Ireland would not vote for change - 51 per cent would vote for remain while only 30 per cent would vote for unity. This gap will not close simply by dint of Catholics outnumbering Protestants in the fullness of time. Attitudes will have to change."

    From your own link. The demographics you repeatedly crow about won't work, the author agrees with me.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,629 ✭✭✭Augme


    Of course attitudes will have to change, just like they've been changing for the last 26 years. Those attitudes will continue to change (mainly die tbh).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    I couldn’t care less what FGer want to do.

    If yiu want to quote polls, get the one which asks do people want united ireland if additional taxes.

    You are just displaying your ignorance on the topic if you are unaware of the differnet results in the polls when people have to pay more taxes



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,077 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    I thought PBP were an "other" party like Alliance?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,481 ✭✭✭pureza


    I think you need to relax and be aware that you are being ribbed not by a normal non SF’er here but by an internet bubble non SF’er

    You are doing the same back

    Most people in the 26 counties regardless of party support a UI

    Period



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    yea they do but it’s not that simple


    But they also don’t support it if additional taxes are required

    Plus they will not support if the hint of violence will start again, so that’s why bridges need to be built

    Something which SF have clearly shown they are totally incapable of doing, either side of border



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,779 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Plus they will not support if the hint of violence will start again, so that’s why bridges need to be built

    Something which SF have clearly shown they are totally incapable of doing, either side of border

    How are they supposed to do that when you have hypocrites reaching out to the DUP, no questions asked about their past or present connections to still active paramilitary groups or the fact they still haven't signed up to the GFA and actively tried to wreck it?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,629 ✭✭✭Augme


    PBP don't mark themselves as officially "nationalist" but they support a United Ireland.

    Yesterday you said they didn't? Which is it? SF, who rule jointly with the loyalists are perfectly incapable of building bridges. Comical. FG and FF constantly calling the loyalists murders certainly won't help build bridges though.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,596 ✭✭✭spillit67


    ”A” poll. I see you’ve been on Wikipedia (is that really the extent of what our Republican Nua kids who glorify murder etc. reach for? You’ll note (not mentioned on your post) there was a singular poll in 1998 and you of course are comparing it to the highest one you can of the various ones taken these days. FYI the last few years have ranged wildly, being as low as 27%.

    The point you are missing (as you don’t have much depth) is the Census. This is the time for Catholics to be ahead, and they are in NI as predicted by the Census in 1991. This shows that the substantial increase in the nationalist base as a % has not transferred to votes in the way that they should have. This is more stark on identity - “Northern Irish” is peeling off over half of any gains from demographic changes and the “loss of Britishness”.

    What you have is not only favourable demographics, but a Unionist movement failing too to appeal to sane individuals. Add to that we have a Southern Economy roaring where incomes and QoL has dramatically improved and exceeded the U.K..

    So tell me how SF are to be patted on the back? For trashing the south with one side of their mouth but then talking about it on the other? For expending their energy into divisive matters? SF finish number #1 in the sectarian carve up and the likes of you think that is advancing a UI.

    Do you honestly think a relative child like you, pig ignorant of the past but with a mistaken confidence in themselves, is convincing anyone? Whatever about Adams and co., you are the problem. You mudguard for the older generation and still do it today for the latest batch and it is so transparent. You aren’t convincing those you need to with a faux schtick of nicey nicey liberalism on the one hand but cheerleading bombmakers on the other.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,779 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    If you wanted an example of a mindset that hasn't moved or given an inch since 1998 ^^^ this is it. With a goodly dollop of sectarianism thrown in (Catholic = Nationalist)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,629 ✭✭✭Augme


    I used the only available data from 1998. There was another poll in 2001 that had support for a United Ireland at 27%. In 2003 it was 26% and in 2013 it was 17%. Then the first poll post Brexit in 2016 had support at 22%. The most recent poll carried out is the one I used, which had it an 39%.

    As for the census data, and I appreciate this following piece was just too advanced for you to figure out, but in the 65+ age bracket only 35% of people identify as catholics. It's 48% in the 0-14 age bracket. On the protestant side the numbers are basically the opposite with only 32% identifying as protestant in the 0-14 age bracket where as as in the 65+ age bracket 60% identify as protestant. There's a reason why the census figures don't fully correlate with voting figures, because not everyone can vote but everyone is accounted for on a census. As I said previously, the demographics will again be significantly different in 25 years.

    However, I've also never claimed there won't be challenges to a United Ireland, a huge amount of work needs to be put in to convince the people who have turned away from the idea of Northern Ireland being British. That was always the first step and the next logical step is they'll see Northern Ireland as being on its own. The reality is, that just isn't a feasible option though. I think it will take people time to accept and realise it.

    They aren't trashing the south, they are trashing the government in the South. Unless you're telling me that everything FG/FF trash SF they are trashing Northern Ireland?

    Unlike you and some other FGers, I'm happy to leave the past in the past. I'm happy to work with the Unionist and Loyalists and the British government and acknowledge their Head of State in a respectful manner. The party and most supporters who aren't willing to be respectful and move on from the past is FG and FF. As I've said,those two parties, especially FG, have little to no interest in a United Ireland and it's shown in their attitude towards SF and their supporters.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,481 ✭✭✭pureza


    A UI comes with a settlement from the UK treasury,a significant grant from the EU )precedent German unification) plus a decade or two of net contributions from the EU as opposed to,to the EU from Dublin

    The rise in taxes is a type of misnomer



  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 11,399 Mod ✭✭✭✭squonk


    Despite all the talk of a UI, it seems like a disservice to NI right now.
    The province has had a very tumultuous period over the past 100 years. It’s only 25 years or so since things have started to normalise. Northern Ireland needs to work on being Northern Ireland before it can be anything else. Education is still segregated to an extent. They can’t even maintain a stable assembly. There are still areas where you don’t go if you’re a catholic or Protestant respectively.

    People here support a united Ireland for sure and it’s an aspiration but groups like SF pushing for border polls rely need to back off and street dealing with the shaker issues first. Stop squabbling over your assembly seating arrangements or focus on actually running an assembly rather than throwing your toys out of your pram if things don’t go your way. Citizens of NI are demanding this more and more. I am not surprised some in NI just want NI to be its own thing. It makes sense. If you expect those of a unionist persuasion to give up their identity as UK citizens, you should at least consider having to give up your own aspirational Irish citizenship. It seems easier for everyone to adopt NI citizenship. It’s soldering you directly have input to and builds collective identity.

    Only working together can NI normalise and move on. They need to focus on that and get to that point. The onus on us in the republic and the UK government is to give them the space and tools to achieve that.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,779 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Northern Ireland needs to work on being Northern Ireland 

    What a ridiculous statement.
    Northern Ireland never worked and never will as a 'normal' democracy'.

    It can't work because it was an artificial construct to begin with.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,576 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    What a ridiculous statement. That is like saying the Republic of Ireland (26 counties) never worked and never will because it was an artificial construct to begin with.

    Pre Irish independence, the British Isles worked as well as any other country in the world at the time, and better than most. Even nowadays most groups of islands in the world are united. Tasmania with Australia : the islands of Japan : the Canaries : the Hawaiian islands for example.

    Fine, and fair enough, if a century ago many people in Ireland wanted independence ; but to avoid total civil war then it was correct to have some border in the island, to keep most of those in the 6 counties happy at the time and most of those in the 26 counties happy at the time. For the next half a century N.I. was arguably more prosperous, and contributed more to world order through its contribution in WW2 etc, than the 26 counties.

    Maybe you think Ukraine is an artificial construct and should be invaded by Russia. And the people of Haiti should take over the Dominican Republic, or vice versa : that they cannot or should not share an island.



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