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Election to be called Fri - predict outcome

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,841 ✭✭✭HBC08


    I'd argue a lot of people would have Aontu ahead of the Greens.

    Now that would be a massive success for a new party vs a well established party that's been in government several times over the decades.I wouldn't bet my life on it but I'd say there's a chance,well find out in November.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 662 ✭✭✭poppers


    Wheter the greens are in Gov or not EU directives means that the green agenda needs to be adhered to no matter who is in Gov.

    Greens are an easy target but carbon taxes, reducing emmisions etc are not going away.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,962 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    again, not a chance, government formation isnt just about overall votes gained, a major part of formation is due to the major power players, i.e. ffg, they ultimately have the say of who forms a government with them, as agreements must be made between elected officials post election, and parties such as the greens would be far more preferable under such conditions.

    yes parties such as aontu may in fact gather more support and votes that the likes of the greens, but that doesnt mean theyll be in government with ffg



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,083 ✭✭✭questionmark?


    Labour are done and dusted as a party so unlikely to be them unless their is a miracle turnaround for them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 72,750 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Their candidate is absolutely in favour of revoking the current abortion laws, or else he wouldn't be in the party. The first thing they mention in their aims is "life", and they don't mean anything other than banning abortion. It's on all their literature, they just use "life" to cover for it as they realise the majority don't support them on it - but its their sole genuine aim.

    They're a single issue party that has tacked on a few things to try and cover it. Don't be fooled.

    They also will not, categorically, ever enter a government without getting that single issue in to the PfG.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,962 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    you could very well be right, but if ffg need the numbers, which they will, labour could come back into the game, ffg would very likely play it safe, choosing to form a government with old partners, than with newer, uncertain ones, possibly of course



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,357 ✭✭✭✭suvigirl


    I think FF will do well this time round, FG will drop, maybe themselves and SF around the same. FF will make a.government with one of those two, I believe.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,154 ✭✭✭spaceHopper


    It will be FF / FG / Lab, it won’t be good for the country.

    It can’t be SF they are too much of train crash lately.

    I don’t care about the troubles and anything the IRA/SF did that was a product of an unjust society where Catholics were oppressed, especially in the 1960s, 70s and 80s

    What troubles me is how they treat anybody who crosses them.

    See Maria Cahill IRA rape victim intimidation in wake of making statements | Irish Independent

    Or Sue the Journalists Latest legal case by Sinn Féin TD heightens concern at potential chilling effect on media (thejournal.ie)

    Or Sweep under the carpet and lie about text messages from Senators to minors. (The text messages are tangible evidence, what else happed here?)

    Or out to destroy an TD when they resign form the party.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,430 ✭✭✭bladespin


    Aboslutely, it's possibly their primary reason for being established, wise or not that will be on their agenda.

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,186 ✭✭✭wazzzledazzle


    I think you could be right and i wouldn't be shocked if FF won the most seats. Bookies have FG as strongish favs to take most seats but i have a hunch FF will do really well.

    They are getting my vote anyway



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,063 ✭✭✭uptherebels




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,962 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ffg will stick together now, well into the 30's, as one of the main reasons for the confidence and supply was to try prevent any sort of alternative government from forming, in particular a sf one, and its working, but of course sf have done an amazing job of wrecking their own chances to. under this situation, any alternative would require a significantly high number of votes, a near majority, in order to make it impossible for this dynamic to continue, i.e. for continual ffg governments, hence why we re probably gonna keep defaulting ffg governments well into the 30's, and maybe beyond…



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 117 ✭✭Joe286


    I really don't care about the internal operations of SF. They seem to have followed the law. Though it's ironic they give out about kangaroo courts now.

    I don't accep the the violence had to go on as long as it did. So therfore I don't white wash their show trials.

    But nothing criminal has been proven at all. I love the way posters get excited over texts to miniors but have no issue with Tulsla is a mess. Child services a mess

    Post edited by Joe286 on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,513 ✭✭✭Patser


    Change just for change's sake, without a demand or vision from a viable alternative is never going to be attractive.

    People on here have to remember that Ireland isn't actually doing that bad at the moment, especially when compared to our neighbour the UK.

    This Govt was born during covid, and saw the massive spike in cost of living that impacted globally when Ukraine was invaded- and the Govt did throw money at it, pandemic payments, ESB/Gas payments etc all while lowering headline tax bills. And now after all that splurging where are we....actually quite financially sound, with a surplus and arguing how to spend billions in Apple windfall tax.

    Compare to the UK who limped through Covid, squandered billions, had Truss wreck people's mortgages over 1 month tenure and now is facing billions of pounds of cuts.

    As others have said here before, if you're a homeowner and healthy Ireland is fantastic. The crisis in house prices and hospitals don't register. So why change? What's the big benefit in suddenly going to an unknown that are pretty much nowadays saying, we'll do status quo only better.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,962 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    yup, some would wanna take a good look at themselves, and ask how continual ffg governments have completely neglected the most critical needs of many children in this country, those that have been experiencing homelessness are now effectively doomed for life, most will remain unemployed for life, with chronic lifelong health care issues, including chronic mental issues!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,430 ✭✭✭bladespin


    Can't see FG doing well at all, Harris is very unlikable and provokes a strong response with certain groups, despite the blurb SF are hugely popular among those who don't care what press is and FF will be too, Indies and the likes of Anotu will have their followers too, the Greens/Labour may not survive in current form much longer - just opinion etc.

    Interesting times.

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,841 ✭✭✭HBC08


    I can only go on having spoken to him and reading his literature.Young,smart guy who's views align with mine,my colleagues, friends,families views on what's happening around our local area.None of this crew would be in favour of changing abortion laws.

    That may have been a central tenant of their policy originally.A candidate talking about abortion around here would be laughed out of it and called a nutter and rightly so.

    Things change and smarter partys/ candidates react to what theyre hearing on the ground.FG even did this when Simon Harris took over.Less smart partys like SF get shown up for being well.....less smart.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,962 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    …and again, you ll find many ffg supporters continually trying to paint a rosie picture, yes ireland is in fact doing well, for those whos needs are being met, particularly their housing and health care needs, and other critical needs, but ireland is really not doing well for those whos needs are not being met!

    these issues are in fact fundamental in nature, and ffg are never actually going to change their approach to these issues, i.e. we must now prepare your kids, grand kids, nieces and nephews for a deeply uncertain future, particularly in relation to critical needs such as housing and health care.

    again, when a government runs a surplus, its actually a government taking money out of the economy, i.e. surpluses are not always a good thing, and sometimes running a slight deficit is actually good! but dont worry, thats never gonna change either, unless theres another catastrophic event such as another pandemic!

    yes we know the uk is fcuked, we know this!

    cause staying the same, is definitely gonna lead to changes, definitely!

    again, dont worry, theres not gonna be any changes in irish government formations for a very long time, so dont worry about it!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,513 ✭✭✭Patser


    I'd say that a term in opposition would suit FG down to the ground. They've been in power since 2011, and a lot of their big names are now stepping down this election. Harris is young enough now to be around for a while and bring in a new batch, and few years sniping from opposition bench while new frontbenchers get to rattle off soundbites at Govt to build their profile, without pressure of delivering would be nice for them.

    FG are fairly unique amongst the bigger Irish parties as in having a 'wing' of politics just to themselves. They are seen as (very, very) Centre (small) Right - but there's no other right wing alternative to steal their votes since PDs disappeared. Aontu maybe on moral issues but not financial terms.

    Compare that to the left with SF, PBP, Lab, SDs, Greens all cannabilising each other on left - and FF now in middle still trying to say how they are different from FG on right and others on centre left.

    So of all parties, FG are the ones most likely unphased by being in opposition. It was their main role for decades



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,962 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    fg will more than likely be in government with ff for a long time to come, theyre grand, both parties will prop each other up until its impossible to do so, again, the whole idea of the confidence and supply



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 72,750 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    I can absolutely guarantee you he's anti abortion, and very proud of it. And I can also guarantee his literature mentions "life" repeatedly, but you didn't notice it somehow.

    The party only exists due to abortion laws.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,186 ✭✭✭wazzzledazzle


    I'm no fan of FG, but they seem to be devoid of any talent (excluding Paschal) is there anyone else? Honest question, Carroll-MacNeill seems extremely dis-ingenious, less said about Justice minister the better,Peter Burke….. MEP's Carberry, Maria Walsh…..i'd like to know who the genuine talent is in that party?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,430 ✭✭✭bladespin


    I'm sure they've changed and added to their agenda but that is the core value.

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,439 ✭✭✭Hodors Appletart


    I'm hoping it's not just a FF/FG behemoth, I'd like to either see the Greens returned with them, unlikely, or the SDs/LAB making up the numbers.

    I just can't see any way for SF, with their current woes, being able to steady thier own ship and also steer a course to government. They've just capitulated.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,513 ✭✭✭Patser


    Nature and politics abhor a vacuum, if demand really rises for a change some party will rise to take that mantle.

    It's actually the old FF chameleon trick - stick in centre but lean left or right depending on the coalition partner the public voted in with them. So during early Celtic Tiger years when Ireland was suddenly banking nation of the world, PDs get votes go in with Bertie and tax cuts for all (especially corporations), everyone happy. Things a bit tight, need social policies like in early 90s and FF go in with Labour.

    That's one of the reasons behind FF's long standing success, they could present themselves as almost anything. It's also one of their biggest threats, and I'm surprised they've survived so well after 2011 when they lost all dominance; how do you identify FF when they sit so fairly square in the centre of all, they are hard to say what they stand for except they've always been there



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,841 ✭✭✭HBC08


    First off,let me say I think you're a good poster and generally make your points well..Based on that and you seem fairly sure on this I'll double check literature,I won't vote for him if there's any nonsense about right to life or anything like that.

    Could you be open to the fact that young,smart,up and coming Aontu candidates are moving away from what we just mentioned and towards what they're actually hearing on doorsteps?

    Edit,

    Just had a look again there.

    Main headings are immigration, housing,health,crime and some local issues.

    No mention of abortion or anything " life" related.

    I'll pm to you if you like to have a look.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,050 ✭✭✭BailMeOut


    Polling would indicate that SH is indeed quite popular and likable and is up 17% in lastest Ipsos poll.

    I heard my daughter and her friends who show no interest in politics or currenct affairs telling me a few days ago that SH 'adorable' and 'cute'. He is connecting with younger voters very well and I suspest no Taoiseach ever has ever been referred to this way by young people before.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,513 ✭✭✭Patser


    That's exactly why I said they'd probably like a term in opposition to rebuild new members profiles. Varadkar, Coveney and Richard Bruton have been the face of FG for 2 decades, all going. In fact 15 of their 35 are not standing. They need to rebuild, and while the old saying of a day in power is better than a year in opposition, being out of spotlight might suit them as they rebuild



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    It's not FF or FG fault that the main opposite are an incompetent party, with links to organised crimes and seem to have questionable attitudes towards paedofiles and criminals.

    I think you need to question those parties and not blame others

    The Green party are a great example of a party which is run well, has an objective and when they get into government deliver on as much as possible of that objective. Yet are hated in Ireland.

    Work that one out



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,186 ✭✭✭wazzzledazzle


    Ye listen "adorable" and "cute" isn't gonna cut it with people who will actually vote, or if people are voting for him on that basis, it's a sad indictment of today's youth



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