FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST
Comments
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Still there on 12Z ECM + 12Z GFS
Filled a little (961/959mb) but now a direct hit although the ECM weakens considerably in the next couple of frames. Arriving a day sooner too.
Still way too far out to be too concerned and if it weakens by 10mb a day next week will be 23 degrees and sunny instead.
If the charts look like this at the weekend it's different story.
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So far the models showing the track of what would be left of Kirk to the S of Ireland or the center just crossing Ireland with the strongest winds offshore to the south, would probably be heavy rain with a track like that. Long way to go but worth tracking it to see how the models do.
Seeing predictions of an active October with perhaps more Hurricane activity.
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The track of the remnants of Kirk still uncertain but it does seem to be trending to the S of Ireland, some earlier runs from the GFS of windy weather gone again, no model showing strong winds at this stage, ECM showing wet but not excessive at this stage.
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Just got my slatted tank done before the deluges. The ground In Meath is still rock hard and I was able to have cement and stone lorries driving on what's usually a heavy wet field. Rivers are low but with the hard ground, water will flood the surface very quickly from field run off. Alot of drains will block quickly from fallen leaves. As Meteorite said , run off from hills and mountains in the heavier rain areas could cause flash flooding.
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Trending South still.
GFS closer to the UK at present giving some strong winds and a good shot of widespread rain. Maybe some high rainfall totals along Southern fringes on this run.
ECM very slow to clear away the LP moving in over us this week end acting as a block. GFS less so.
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With Kirk now heading for France or maybe even northern Spain there isn't much else of note showing on the charts. GFS and ECM both showing a low pressure system currently forming around the Bahamas that is forecast to track up towards Newfoundland and then across the Atlantic reaching our part of the world next Tuesday/Wednesday but ECM and ICON take it towards Iceland with minimal impact on us and GFS brings it closer bringing breezy and wet weather but nothing out of the ordinary.
In the same period GEM has us under a nice bit of high pressure with settled weather and temperatures up to 16 degrees. Wouldn't that be nice!
Of course this is well into FI and could change completely in the next day or two but would be nice to get to the end of October without a named system given how active the Atlantic is this year. Aside from the deluges of the weekend just past, the country has had a decent first half to the meteorological Autumn.
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