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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

Meteorite58

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Mod Note:

This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onward for Autumn 2024.

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

Thanks

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Charts quite similar around midweek showing cooler but little rainfall then a big divergence between ECM and GFS as can be seen below with the ECM going back to warmer and more settled weather, currently showing up to the high teens touching 20C towards the end of the week and the GFS turning up the the LP systems, some vigorous, temp slightly below the ECM and very wet to boot. GEM quite similar to the ECM. So as ever have to see a few more runs before any confidence one way or the other , settled or unsettled and v wet.

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[Deleted User]

If this was in January it would be a snow bunnies dream……

pauldry

Could still bring snow were it to happen especially heavier bursts inland South and East. We had some snow in Sligo in October 1993 I think it was so it can occur.

sdanseo

Still there on 12Z ECM + 12Z GFS

Filled a little (961/959mb) but now a direct hit although the ECM weakens considerably in the next couple of frames. Arriving a day sooner too.

Still way too far out to be too concerned and if it weakens by 10mb a day next week will be 23 degrees and sunny instead.

If the charts look like this at the weekend it's different story.

Meteorite58

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122673419#Comment_122673419

Yeah remarkably similar charts this evening, even after the earlier runs went walkabout today, GEM very similar also if somewhat more south.

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122670601#Comment_122670601

Oh wow where looking at gusts of 160km/h plus , but obviously 10 days out anything can happen

JanuarySnowstor

Certainly worth watching!! It isn't a million miles away from an Ophelia type event! Approaching from that angle always keeps it over warmer waters...

Meteorite58

So far the models showing the track of what would be left of Kirk to the S of Ireland or the center just crossing Ireland with the strongest winds offshore to the south, would probably be heavy rain with a track like that. Long way to go but worth tracking it to see how the models do.

Seeing predictions of an active October with perhaps more Hurricane activity.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1841220865981132919

JanuarySnowstor

18z up and running and sofar Kirk is deeper and moving faster! A 🌀 is what it is!!!

JanuarySnowstor

Have we ever before seen this level of ppn heading towards us!! 18z looks like giving a direct hit

Or maybe not! Yet another option of many as it veers South

squarecircles

Kirk barrells into ireland on the gfs 06z

weisses

ECM has it passing south of us into the UK

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122677338#Comment_122677338

thats this morning run

Meteorite58

The track of the remnants of Kirk still uncertain but it does seem to be trending to the S of Ireland, some earlier runs from the GFS of windy weather gone again, no model showing strong winds at this stage, ECM showing wet but not excessive at this stage.

.Donegal.

We’re on the map now

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122680244#Comment_122680244

We are. Ya bet me to it 🤪

[Deleted User]

This time next week. Ex-Kirk just off the south coast.

CirrusBusiness

Hmmmm.. need to keep an eye on Kirk.

adocholiday

Still don't think Kirk is going to be too impactful here (famous last words), but looking at the 12z runs ECM has it filling well on approach and passing into the Bay of Biscay and across northern Spain/Southern France. Even the 12z GFS bringing it our way as above isn't showing anything too crazy in terms of wind and rain. ICON and GEM showing similar to ECM. Still nearly a week to go but the model consensus is fairly strong and I think (hope) we'll avoid the worst of it.

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122681106#Comment_122681106

Yes think your right, the trend all day is to weaken it as it nears Ireland. Worth watching but for now it looks like a non event!

typhoony

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122681149#Comment_122681149

Thats a bold statement, high probability of a major rain event even if winds won't impact us.

pauldry

The midweek Low over us acts as a sort of block over us as that one moves NE Kirk is unable to make a direct hit at us so veers more South. There's a 10 percent chance it hits us full on but most members have it South. However a worrying thing is our lows tend to be earlier than forecast in Autumn due to stronger jet and this may speed the midweek low away leaving room for Kirk to pound us but current guidance has this possibility as small. Current.

Gonzo

Remains to be seen how much of an impact Kirk has on us but one thing is certain, next week is going to be unsettled and windy, there is likely to be plenty of rain especially midweek with flooding a possibility. There won't be much gardening or long daytime walks next week.

Robwindstorm

Just got my slatted tank done before the deluges. The ground In Meath is still rock hard and I was able to have cement and stone lorries driving on what's usually a heavy wet field. Rivers are low but with the hard ground, water will flood the surface very quickly from field run off. Alot of drains will block quickly from fallen leaves. As Meteorite said , run off from hills and mountains in the heavier rain areas could cause flash flooding.

Robwindstorm

Sorry, posted above in the wrong thread.

Next week's models are very scattered. GFS the worst scenario regards kirk with heavy rain and driving east winds. Brrrrr!

odyboody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122682978#Comment_122682978

Is it not usual that lows tend to track further north than forcast?

Meteorite58

Trending South still.

GFS closer to the UK at present giving some strong winds and a good shot of widespread rain. Maybe some high rainfall totals along Southern fringes on this run.

ECM very slow to clear away the LP moving in over us this week end acting as a block. GFS less so.

sdanseo

I still think Kirk could be a problem, it's incredibly rare for a LP to stall like that to our west. Models are likely to be struggling with such an intact tropical system moving this far north.

Needs to be monitored very closely. If the low fills faster and gets out of the way, Kirk could shift back to the NW significantly.

WolfeEire

We could be heading towards the first widespread, single digit daytime max temp of the autumn on Friday

pauldry

Kirk won't affect Ireland bar bringing down Northerlies as it heads to France. Could be famous last words but it's trending even further South now. Likely to be a showery week. Nothing out of the ordinary for October.

adocholiday

With Kirk now heading for France or maybe even northern Spain there isn't much else of note showing on the charts. GFS and ECM both showing a low pressure system currently forming around the Bahamas that is forecast to track up towards Newfoundland and then across the Atlantic reaching our part of the world next Tuesday/Wednesday but ECM and ICON take it towards Iceland with minimal impact on us and GFS brings it closer bringing breezy and wet weather but nothing out of the ordinary.

In the same period GEM has us under a nice bit of high pressure with settled weather and temperatures up to 16 degrees. Wouldn't that be nice!

Of course this is well into FI and could change completely in the next day or two but would be nice to get to the end of October without a named system given how active the Atlantic is this year. Aside from the deluges of the weekend just past, the country has had a decent first half to the meteorological Autumn.