Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Every single housing expert in the country disagrees with your analysis, that you insist on posting repeatedly in this thread. Its a really odd agenda to push so doggedly.

ie

"This underinvestment has led to a substantial housing deficit, with the Housing Commission estimating that the underlying shortage ranges from 212,500 to 256,000 homes based on the 2022 census figures. "

https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/housing-planning/2024/05/21/housing-commission-report-leaked-findings-are-damning-indictment-of-government-eoin-o-broin/

"Ireland’s housing crisis is ‘on a different level’ to other countries around the world – with population growing four times faster than new homes are being delivered.

New research from Savills shows that for every new home delivered in Ireland, four new people are being added to the population.

According to the report, some 3.8 people were added to the population for every new unit of housing delivered between 2015 and 2023 – a ratio of nearly four to one.

It makes Ireland’s population-to-housing ratio “by far the worst” of the eight countries analysed – 14% higher than the next worst country, which was Spain.

Ireland’s ratio was 80% worse than the United Kingdom’s and double Australia’s."

https://www.newstalk.com/news/housing-crisis-irelands-population-now-growing-four-times-faster-than-housing-delivery-1755294

etc

The level of population growth we're experiencing is completely unsustainable for the number of homes we're building.

I genuinely believe that if you were in the market looking to buy your first house your opinion of there being no real deficit would greatly change.

You're consistently stating that there is no deficit though. While it may not be as large as 250k, a point that I'm sure is on the far upper range, there is most definitely some deficit that is not being addressed by the numbers of properties being constructed.

The figures that you continuously use are from April 2022. A lot has changed in the market in 2 and a half years.

Lack of supply is a good indicator that there is a deficit of properties. Report from BOI this morning in the Irish Times have stated that 40% of properties are selling at least 10% above asking prices. There are bidding wars on practically every property on the market.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2024/09/23/many-irish-homebuyers-paying-a-minimum-of-10-above-asking-price-amid-intense-competition/

Why is there such a demand in the market if we have no deficit of available stock? As others have stated there is now a larger % of people late 20's and 30's living at home with there parents. While the figure of 2.75 AHS you are using may not have changed much since 2011 the age demographic of these households have. These adults living with their parents want to have their own apartment/house but the available stock is just simply inefficient therefore there is a deficit in the market.

If the population grew by 98k but 149k were migrants or returning Irish migrants, then excluding deaths 50k people left the country. So the young are leaving in their droves then. For context about 60k did the leaving cert this year.

I don't really blame them. Why pay taxes to a state that actively works against their interests for the sake of a ruling class that hates them?

Pressure on central bank for 5x, 6x income mortgages.

More government money/shared equity schemes.

150k shared equity from govt in your home.

We'll have FTB couples on combined 100k buying homes for 750k with almost no equity. What could go wrong

natwest just announced 6 times income mortgage in UK !

The former Royal Bank of Scotland

Rhymes, repeats, change the plaque at the front door

Pick your poison

No I am saying they should build away. They should absolutely lean overbuilding more than underbuilding. Simply pointing out there are constraints outside of money and it takes time to ramp up. If the government could, I would have no doubt they would love to see 50k or 60k built this year. Its not that simple and the issues faced by Ireland exist in lots of other countries.

I would like to see over supply avoided but on balance yes better to risk over supply than under supply

The next election will be interesting; all these immigrants cannot vote and anyone that knows younger people (under 30s) probably sees apathy or else hatred of FF/FG. Keeping a few grannies alive during covid helps the government but the trend from 2019 and 2025 will be a sign of what will come in 2030/2031 if the housing market continues to grow and lock out more people from the inner circle. However, personally I think there will be a slowdown post-US election in its economy and this will cause a bit of a slowdown in Ireland which will reduce the capacity of the government to spend money on the housing market in the next couple of years so we’ll see a flat market 2026 and 2027.

Is 10% of a gain in a year sustainable is the question; phrased another way; is introducing more and more leverage into the housing market to keep it climbing instead of declining sustainable or should a haircut be taken?

I don't think the state's behaviour during the 'rona will stand to them in the least. I won't delve into that particular hornets' nest here, but I think enough time has passed for the lockdowns to be viewed with more objective eyes. That said, people have short memories.

I don't see the SF victory that many predict simply because SF is out of touch with its core voter base, namely working class people. They are no different to FG and FF regarding immigration, and their plan to "build 100k houses" would, at current levels of immigration, be of little help if they pulled it off, which they will not.

My own opinion is that voting doesn't really matter. No party here is really much different from any other, and besides that, there are the civil servants who will continue with the same policies regardless. Outside of Ireland, there are figures like Trump of Farage (I'm not a fan of either), but an objective view of what they say and of what Trump actually did in office will reveal that they are not much different from "mainstream" politicians.

In short, voting is not going to arrest or radically move us away from neo-liberalism/globalism. There is simply too much momentum behind it and too much big-money interest in keeping it going.