Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

In 2011 lending was on its knees. Public sentiment was that nobody should buy a house and unemployment was high.

How do you think that's comparable to now, when lending is flowing, public sentiment is buy now or never get on the ladder and employment is practically full?

Not even mentioning the immigration difference between the two time periods.

But that's a rediculous way to view it. We could stack everyone in pods and house the entire population in the greater dublin area if we wanted to.

We have an under supply of housing for the current economic and population situation.

There are plenty of lunatics who would love to see people living in pods. However, what we will likely get are tenements. Indeed, these already can be found in some parts of Dublin. I've seen rented houses in Terenure with 20+ people in them, sharing kitchens, bathrooms and bedrooms.

"We have an under supply of housing for the current economic and population situation."

You are correct. the infinite growth model of economics is becoming unsustainable because the economy is growing too large for the country to support. Constantly importing people from overseas to keep things rolling is not going to work long-term, because it is not working now.

That's an odd one. The asking price was just under a million, but the initial offer came in at 1.5 million?

Every single housing expert in the country disagrees with your analysis, that you insist on posting repeatedly in this thread. Its a really odd agenda to push so doggedly.

ie

"This underinvestment has led to a substantial housing deficit, with the Housing Commission estimating that the underlying shortage ranges from 212,500 to 256,000 homes based on the 2022 census figures. "

https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/housing-planning/2024/05/21/housing-commission-report-leaked-findings-are-damning-indictment-of-government-eoin-o-broin/

"Ireland’s housing crisis is ‘on a different level’ to other countries around the world – with population growing four times faster than new homes are being delivered.

New research from Savills shows that for every new home delivered in Ireland, four new people are being added to the population.

According to the report, some 3.8 people were added to the population for every new unit of housing delivered between 2015 and 2023 – a ratio of nearly four to one.

It makes Ireland’s population-to-housing ratio “by far the worst” of the eight countries analysed – 14% higher than the next worst country, which was Spain.

Ireland’s ratio was 80% worse than the United Kingdom’s and double Australia’s."

https://www.newstalk.com/news/housing-crisis-irelands-population-now-growing-four-times-faster-than-housing-delivery-1755294

etc

The level of population growth we're experiencing is completely unsustainable for the number of homes we're building.

I genuinely believe that if you were in the market looking to buy your first house your opinion of there being no real deficit would greatly change.

You're consistently stating that there is no deficit though. While it may not be as large as 250k, a point that I'm sure is on the far upper range, there is most definitely some deficit that is not being addressed by the numbers of properties being constructed.

The figures that you continuously use are from April 2022. A lot has changed in the market in 2 and a half years.

Lack of supply is a good indicator that there is a deficit of properties. Report from BOI this morning in the Irish Times have stated that 40% of properties are selling at least 10% above asking prices. There are bidding wars on practically every property on the market.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2024/09/23/many-irish-homebuyers-paying-a-minimum-of-10-above-asking-price-amid-intense-competition/

Why is there such a demand in the market if we have no deficit of available stock? As others have stated there is now a larger % of people late 20's and 30's living at home with there parents. While the figure of 2.75 AHS you are using may not have changed much since 2011 the age demographic of these households have. These adults living with their parents want to have their own apartment/house but the available stock is just simply inefficient therefore there is a deficit in the market.

If the population grew by 98k but 149k were migrants or returning Irish migrants, then excluding deaths 50k people left the country. So the young are leaving in their droves then. For context about 60k did the leaving cert this year.

I don't really blame them. Why pay taxes to a state that actively works against their interests for the sake of a ruling class that hates them?

Pressure on central bank for 5x, 6x income mortgages.

More government money/shared equity schemes.

150k shared equity from govt in your home.

We'll have FTB couples on combined 100k buying homes for 750k with almost no equity. What could go wrong

natwest just announced 6 times income mortgage in UK !

The former Royal Bank of Scotland

Rhymes, repeats, change the plaque at the front door

Pick your poison