Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122583798#Comment_122583798

Would you be supportive if it was open to everyone as I think it would be positive to have everyone have the a less risky option in obtaining secure accomodation.

Most of the new housing currently being built is not available for sale to private buyers.

Politicians are amongst the worst objectors to new housing

The Student

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122583321#Comment_122583321

The system would operate if the State stopped interfering in it. Leave the private sector to itself and it will self level itself (thats what it does).

If the State wants to house people in subsidised housing then do it in social housing. Have lower spec levels etc, rather than forcing the private sector to provide them. For every Part V property provided by the private sector who do you think is subsidising it? the people who are purchasing the other properties in the development.

The market worked in the past all the way up to the early 2000's and had done since the 1950's when people began to purchase properties on the private market.

Remember its not social housing that is the issue. Its the small minority of anti social individuals living in them. Deal with them and the housing situation will improve. It wont be sorted on this one issue alone but it will be improved.

Hand overs are not been given to wealthy individuals as you state. I can only use my family situation where both my nieces and partners (all on the average industrial wage) purchased second hand properties in the €300k to €350k one three yrs ago and the second last year.

Life is about choices for all of us.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122584146#Comment_122584146

As long as we have essential jobs that don't pay enough to cover living frugally, there will be interference. The question is do we do it at maximum cost or implement smarter solutions.

96 to 2002 was similar to today in the context of supply demand mismatch and house price inflation was running at rates of up to 20% p/a

I think SF would have focused on the rental side where the max damage is being done to consumers but had to respond to populist, magic money tree policies of FFG and there party of home ownership (whatever the cost) narrative

Industry promised lower prices on lower spec student accommodation, yet we have instances of said accommodation costing 8k per college year for a shared room, thats a minimum 16,000 per room plus whatever they can gouge out of tourists over the summer months.

The private sector will always follow the latest wheeze hence we were told we can't build homes because the private sector was too busy building commercial property which of course is now in trouble

I said grants are given to people on relatively high incomes with many reports stating many did not need them. This would appear to be poor use of taxpayers money, you seem to be concerned about this predicament also

Maybe we operate in different social circles, but most people I know purchased there home out of fear of rising rents, security of tenure and being priced out of the market. Most were in dread of loosing money rather than it being a "wealth creator", put it was pick your poison time for them. Russian roulette so to speak.

Congrats to your nieces and there partners. Like me and all my brothers and sisters we purchased in the 2nd hand market as are the vast majority of ftb today where there is no interference or grants untill recently where owners have left them empty.

Could you get a clearer indicator that current gov interference is a complete waste of money and adding to the problem

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122583001#Comment_122583001

This is complete nonsense. Ask anyone why they opted to buy a house and very little will tell you it's about generating wealth.

There are mutiple reasons to buy a house, and the wealth generating effect is most certainly one of them.

That is why no politician seriously wants house prices to decrease. They are not going to say "We want house prices to decrease by 25%", as that means it will make 66% of Irish households who own their own home property.

MLMD said something similar and see what happened to her poll numbers, as a result.

Now we can argue long and hard about that being unfair, and I agree in spirit. Western governments have let this happen not be design but by accident IMO. But it creates big issues with an inter-generational split between the haves and have not. I agree that the under 40's have not had a good time of it. But that is the way of the world, its not fair but it is what it is.

And with an affordable leasehold home you are still building equity - but you are not part of the speculation of the private market.

Its the mirage of equity growth as it being a closed market, prices and growth are locked in.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122583321#Comment_122583321

Taxation is not collected to be handed over to a private individual on relatively high income so that they can create wealth for themselves at the expense of everyone else. Add in the waivers to fees in building plus upto 130k to build apartments

We can all play at that game…

"Taxation is not collected to be handed over to a private individual on relatively high income so that they can create wealth for themselves at the expense of everyone else with the government handing over houses at a loss to be bought privately with a leasehold. Add in the waivers to fees in building plus upto 130k to build apartments. "

If you were consistent you would be also against this leasehold plan.

Who benefits from the leasehold plan? The landowner will never regain use of the land, so what is the purpose?

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122583846#Comment_122583846

So you want migration to stop altogether?

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122584970#Comment_122584970

Our population is increasing by 100,000+ people every year now consistently because of migration (natural growth, births minus deaths, is only about 20k). Thats completely unsustainable at a time of the worst housing crisis in the history of the state, and when we're only building crica 35k housing units a year.

Nobody with any grasp of reality is going to say we can reduce immigration to zero, but it can and should be significantly reduced. We could tomorrow relatively easily cut it down to only EU immigrants (because we can't restrict those, and they tend to do fill paying jobs at least) and non-EU immigrants qualified to do essential jobs that are required here (nurses, doctors etc). We could overall reduce arrivals by tens of thousands a year as a result quite easily.

Which would means tens of thousands of people a year fewer needing houses, it would help the housing situation instantly.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122584970#Comment_122584970

Nope, as stated we need workers in many areas.

Asylum seekers need to stop as we can't cope with the surge at present

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122584888#Comment_122584888

If you were consistent you would be also against this leasehold plan.

Nope, leasehold embeds affordability in a portion of the entire market.

Current grant system is used once and immediately lost as a heavily state subsidised housing unit becomes a private market home and could even end up on Airbnb and lost as a housing unit altogether

The issue is what is the best value for the taxpayer

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122585065#Comment_122585065

Asylum seekers need to stop as we can't cope with the surge at present

How?

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122585116#Comment_122585116

The issue is what is the best value for the taxpayer

Selling a house that will cost 400k to build to someone for 250k is not good value for the taxpayer.

The HTB has restrictions on it, and at max is €30k.

The FHS, the state has equity in the property which will be paid back, to the tax payer.

If your concern is for the tax payer, then the SF plan is the worst of them all.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122585182#Comment_122585182

Not for this thread

But avoiding promoting the country as a great destination for asylum seekers in 8 languages spoken by current asylum seekers by the Minister would be a helpful start

https://www.pressreader.com/uk/the-irish-mail-on-sunday/20230416/282063396259432

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122583846#Comment_122583846

We often get told that services would collapse without migrants, but I'm not really sure about that. If there were less people, the demand for services would go do, so the need for staff would fall accordingly.

I think a reasonable level of immigration is healthy, but whatever that is, we're exceeding it enormously and have been for many years. Sadly, like many things, it's a can that has been kicked down the road until it became too large to ignore anymore, and now there are no easy solutions to be had.

SummerK

Saw this house and the bidding war is intense. Already 100k over asking price. Market is red hot as it has been the last couple of years.

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/house-glencar-11-glencurrig-douglas-co-cork/5816952

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122585232#Comment_122585232

I posted yesterday of a Chinese investment in urban Limerick of 300 plus 1, 2 and 3 bed homes costed at 260k per unit including land purchase

I checked available stock of rentals in Limerick city suburbs. There are 17 in total, 15 of those are priced at 2,500 per month and above

I would disagree with your conclusions

Rocket_GD

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122585456#Comment_122585456

In fairness it is a very nice house located in Ireland's second largest city, no surprise that it's at €375k, that's probably reasonable value for the property.

Or maybe my view of the market has been seriously skewed by my house hunting in Dublin over the past few months.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122585456#Comment_122585456

275 as the asking prices seems a little low to begin with.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122584873#Comment_122584873

"A mirage of equity growth?"

Lol what a cop out. If your house price doesn't increase at all over the term of your mortgage you are still building equity as you pay down the mortgage. That's part of why you buy a home - as renting you build no equity. Buy a home, affordable or not and your mortgage payments are (less interest) building up your own equity.

It's undeniable. Like I cannot understand how someone can deny this immutable fact.

markw7

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122584970#Comment_122584970

Ah Cathy Newman, how are you keeping this weather?

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122585182#Comment_122585182

Denmark reduced their number of asylum seekers arriving per year by over 90% (from 21,316 a year down to 1,515) after bringing in a number of proactive measures to do so. They did this while still remaining part of the EU and conforming to all international obligations/treaties Ireland is party to.

A in-depth discussion of it is probably not for this thread, but its worth your (or anyone elses) time having a read of this quick outline if you're curious:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_Denmark#Features_of_the_present_Danish_asylum_system_(2023)

It show a number of measures which the Irish government could do tomorrow, if they wanted to, to reduce the numbers arriving hugely.

Theres nothing practical stopping us from having similar yearly arrival numbers to Denmark. They're actually considerably easier for asylum seekers to make it to than Ireland, given we're literally an island in the Atlantic and not in Schengen, so our numbers could/should be slightly lower than theirs if anything.

Its heading off topic for this thread, but to tie it in slightly theres absolutely no doubt that if we did the same it would help our housing crisis massively. Approx 25,000 fewer people a year arriving in Ireland adds up massively over the years - it would be effectively the same as increasing our housing output by about 33% overnight.

Villa05

What are posters thoughts on the state buying up parcels of land such as this one

2,500 up to 4,000 a month for newly listed 2 bed apartments of which there are 17 (daft) in Limerick and suburbs

Is this a good idea or is it better to sit on our hands

https://www.limerickleader.ie/news/farming/1598807/international-interest-in-limerick-farm-on-edge-of-the-city.html

Roberto_gas

https://www.independent.ie/life/home-garden/how-much-is-your-house-worth/runaway-property-market-shows-no-sign-of-easing-up-as-prices-on-track-to-surge-10pc-this-year/a1949956160.html

10 may be a conservative figure based on on ground figures and bidding wars

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122593826#Comment_122593826

At least the good news is small landlords are not fleeing the market, they're buying up flats in Mullingar to charge €2.5k for a 15% yield!

“Small investors are now looking to get back into the market because market rents are so high. It might not be a feature of every market in the county, but where it is they will win the bidding wars,” Mr Davitt said.“If you had a two-bedroom apartment in Mullingar, for instance, you could put that on the rental market at probably €2,500 per month. That’s €30,000 per year, which means about 15pc on your investment.”

All very sustainable looking at the fundamentals no doubt.

Jonnyc135

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122586618#Comment_122586618

Denmark's Government is also made up of Social democrats, liberal and moderate parties. Far from Right wing extremists.

A controlled approach to asylum like Denmarks is needed not just for housing but all public services.

Montys return

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122593988#Comment_122593988

Is this the lobby groups latest tactic in getting RPZ removed?

I've had a look on daft at both available and let agreed, 2 bed rentals in Mullingar are nowhere near 2.5k.

For what's its worth, 1.5k for a 2 bed rental in Mullingar still sounds dear to me.

herbalplants

Seems like you can buy a house in Navan Co Meath for about 250k. I remember last peak, people were paying high prices to buy in the likes of Navan and further in Co Meath. Some people must be still in negative equity there.

I remember another place people were buying also in the last peak was Co Louth Castlebellingham, overpriced 2 little bedroom houses with no driveway, a dog box in the sticks. Those people are still in negative equity.

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122594126#Comment_122594126

Indeed. Davitt is Chief Executive of the Institute of Professional Auctioneers and Valuers.

The article is reporting the findings a "market analysis" buy the IPAV.

A big part of the problem is that when these lads spout utter nonsense nobody is calling them out for it.

Quite the opposite, we've become so addicted to property doom news we lap it up willingly, and cite this stuff unquestioningly to bolster the narrative.

It's just the reverse of 2006, lapping up the pessimism rather than the optimism, but it's massive group think nonetheless.

Patsy167

How should I interpret the fact that House price growth has outpaced apartments over the past few years?

From an investment perspective, does it mean apartments are relatively undervalued and potentially have more upside or does it confirm that houses are still the best bet.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122597319#Comment_122597319

I don't know if the data corrects for it, but little if any new apartments are hitting the open market, whereas new houses are and they are rising quicker than second hand housing.