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Sinn Fein and how do they form a government dilemma

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,477 ✭✭✭pureza


    Here we go again with the name calling

    You're ignoring what you said,you're certainly not denying you said it,with dozens of posts trying to dig your way out of it

    How many Ass's do you have ? I'll go get paper plates for them

    Maybe have a word with oxford and see if they'll remove the word inevitable ?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,773 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    You will not explain were there is a difference in the two statements and I have been asking you to do that for many posts. It is not an insult to call what you are doing lies, it’s a fact.
    No reasonable person would see the two statements as anything other than accepting poll figures if they occurred in an election. Those that are favourable to SF and those that are not. There is no inconsistency.

    You will continue to claim you had a gotcha even though you cannot explain how it is one.

    Explain the difference or don’t expect any further engagement with me on it. You are just clinging on to a self created fantasy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,477 ✭✭✭pureza


    I did explain,you flip flopped

    Sure it's all there in black and white

    You know what a flip flop is yeah? What am I asking,of course you do,you just dont care,that much is obvious from your repetitive digging

    While you're down there,when you hit australia,would you ever get me more paper plates for your ass,bring enough,I've lost count of your Ass's,you've been handed so many



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,164 ✭✭✭DubCount


    The whole point of this thread, is that even if SF get 35-37% in an election, they wont get enough seats for an overall majority. Its therefore not inevitable they will form a government. To form a government they will need to either form a minority government or a coalition. Who is going to Support them? PBP, SD, Labour, Independents….. its hardly a stable platform to implement their plans.

    If SF want to govern, they need to reach out and compromise - thats not going to be easy after selling themselves as the "change" party. They'd be better of campaigning on the policies they want to implement, in stead of being the "not FF FG party".



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,773 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    The thread is chock full of opinion.

    Mine includes the backed up opinion that FF opened the door to coalition with them. This was observed on the election thread here at the time and by all major media. I see leadership change in FF and antipathy to coalition with FG which to many is looking more and more like a merger, leading to change. Maybe they are happy with that but I suspect many aren't. So loads of variables.

    Plenty of opinion too on what SF 'need' to do too.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    It is a flip-flop either way.

    It is actually worse to admit, as he has done, that his opinion and analysis flip-flop on the output of the latest opinion poll. So you can go from saying that a SF government is inevitable to saying that it is not, purely because you allow your opinion to flip-flop willy-nilly.

    I have set out above a comprehensive analysis of why I believe SF are in trouble right now. None of those problems are insurmountable, but they won't form a government unless they address those. There is no sign of them moving to address their issues, but as long as their online supporters pretend there isn't a problem and flip-flop their analysis from one opinion poll to the next, there will be no pressure to address the issues.

    The leadership question, populism in a post-Covid scenario, weak front bench, policy, foreign policy and the PIRA legacy are all holding SF back. That is real analysis, setting out a framework that explains why SF are fairing so poorly in the opinion polls, but also setting out how they can improve and a basis for analysing any further change in their support.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,773 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    It is a flip-flop either way.

    Utterly bizarre to call speculating on opinion polls at a given time, 'flip flopping'.

    Both opinions given were accepting of the implications of the current opinion polls if they transpired in an election. If I denied those realities you guys would be first to the keyboards too.

    I read your treatise on what SF should do to the backdrop of no discernable party dissatisfaction with the leader, the media reports of FG FF Greens populist cooking of the books pre election budget vote buying giveaway and the fact that previously SF's past was not a block to them in achieving support.

    I can't speak for SF but I fear your advice will fall on deaf ears. They'll no doubt do their own analysis and we can all comment on how that goes.

    I would observe though that the party you vote for have no stated issues with going into government with SF as they are presently constituted and would only require a change on environmental policy. Something that wasn't front and centre of the key changes you require. Maybe it's just me but your list seems to reflect changes the FG party would require more than FF or the Greens. Odd tbh.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Speculating on opinion polls through your own political party lens without any deeper analysis is basically flip-flopping.

    I was quite clear 18 months ago that the then opinion polls reflected a normal mid-term situation where the opposition was flying high and that as the election got closer and the achievements of the government and the risks of the opposition became clearer, that support for Sinn Fein would fall (It turns out that I was right). It wasn't the most high-brow of analysis, but it was a damn sight 100 levels more insightful than a bare proclamation that a SF government was inevitable. Shallow superficial flip-flopping analysis as demonstrated by your tour-de-force on opinion polls doesn't do this site any favours.

    Even in the quoted posts, you can't resist a dig at my Green credentials. You see, my analysis of SF's current problems wasn't done through a Green lens. It was a reflection of where we are in the larger body politic and what the electorate would need to see from SF before their support would rise. There is an opportunity there for SF to deliver those changes, but I doubt whether they have the capacity or capability to even understand the challenge, let even address it. That you contextualise it as what FG would need from SF completely misses the point - the voters need to be won over by SF first.

    Your posts probably more accurately reflect the confusion within SF than anything in my analysis. Keep shouting "change" and complain that the electorate are ignorant when the people won't vote for us.

    Finally, the return of the current government isn't inevitable but SF appear to be doing their best to ensure that it will be. So all other things being equal, unless SF get to work, address the types of problems that I have identified, they will not be entering government after the next election. Flip-flopping on opinion polls and blaming the electorate won't get them there.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,773 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Speculating on opinion polls through your own political party lens without any deeper analysis is basically flip-flopping.

    How is saying that 'the status quo will remain if the current poll transpires in an election' speculating through a political party lens?

    Why won't you guys explain? How often do I have to ask?

    I merely reflected that somebody hugely fearful of SF in government as presently constituted was voting for a party who have expressed no problems being in government with them as presently constituted. If I am answerable on 'flip flopping' are you not on a key Green standpoint? You might be so vain to think your views are unimpeachable but every subscriber to this site is entitled to question glaring inconsistencies. Your wish list is closer to what FG require of SF and miles and miles from what the Greens require.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Again, you miss the point completely, obsessed as you are by political party viewpoints. Because you see the world only through a SF lens, you are unable to comprehend that others don't or that others can look at wider pictures.

    It doesn't matter whether I am a FF, Green, Aontu or any other voter, because I am a voter, not a supporter, if my analysis is clear, reasoned and based on logic. Address the points I raised in my analysis, not who I am.

    You have never presented a cogent reason or argument as to why opinion polls have shown firstly a rise in SF support to the mid-term of this government and then a sharp decline in the last 18 months (other than people's opinions change and the electorate are stupid which are superficial meaningless points).

    So either address my substantive points, or put forward your own, instead of whinging about who is a Green supporter.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,773 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    With respect, your 'analysis' couldn't be anymore politically motivated. For instance you jump on the 'populist' high moral ground while ignoring blatant populism currently being exposed and warned about by the government you support. You simply and hypocritically ignore it in one party and run to the high moral ground when another party does. A truly 'impartial' non political analysis tallies with my own analysis, they ALL engage in populism when it suits.

    Now you lie about what I have said or done:

    (other than people's opinions change and the electorate are stupid which are superficial meaningless points

    I have never ever called the electorate 'stupid'.

    I have clearly said in the face of you in particular salivating about SF 'having to chase the far right vote' to maintain their opinion poll level that they should not do that EVEN if it means remaining in opposition.

    They have lost potential votes as a result, I have never denied that. So be it, the last thing I would support is another FG, promising New Politics just to get their bums on the comfy seats. Loss of shallow support doesn't bother me, chasing it just for power does. And I don't need to convince you, cogently or otherwise.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,796 ✭✭✭✭maccored


    SF are not in any way 'in trouble'. They will ceed to power as soon as they are ready and have solid support behind them. Im really happy they shed a lot of rubble from fg/ff and I think right now they are in a strong position. they droppedin the polls because every loyalist supporting 'nationalist' was telling the world how they were more republican than SF - and then went off dancing with loyalists. Political support is fickle these days so - I dunno. nevermind that your 'analysis'. Leadership what? Red herring as no-one in SF is worried about the leadership. post covid populism? Was that int he indo? AOBSFers have always been saying SF is 'populist'. 'Popular' maybe, but populist? eh? Gicing a crap about people (socialist) is no 'populist'.

    No offence, but your anolgy is based on things made to sound good that arent actually based in fact when you look at them. The hate Speech law for example - classic example of either pure misinformation or a best a total misunderstanding about how laws are debated. Amateur hour



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,477 ✭✭✭pureza


    What is far right ? People in council estates who are anti immigration ?

    They should be bedrock SF

    Instead of reassuring them,why is SF abandoning them? Is it the long game,that they'll come back,thats a dilemma,because 5 more years of house building and frankly chè Guevara style welfare hand outs and Education/job opportunities from a new iteration of the current government might never see many of them back



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,773 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I agree, they would have really messed up had they chased or defended that vote and then their leaders turned up with Loyalists.

    It's been hugely disappointing to some that they didn't.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,773 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    A lot of assumptions about abandoning there.
    Seems to me SF still have their 'bedrock' support.

    The government hangs about at a certain support level, then hardens under a new leader on immigration and picks up support, seems pandering to that support might become their problem and of the various new Independents. Lots to happen there yet.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Which party is pandering to the anti-immigrant vote by refusing to say whether it supports the Thornton Hall project? The funny thing is that the dog-whistling to the racists that SF have engaged in has been completely seen through on both sides.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,773 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady



    Here's the local SF rep:

    Local Sinn Féin councillor Helen ­Meyer said the plans should be halted while they were fully fleshed out by the Department of Integration. She said officials were not able to answer many questions posed to them at a meeting earlier this week with local representatives.

    “If you fail to prepare, you prepare to fail,” she said. “They way they are doing it now is very concerning. What we’d like to see is that they put good thought and planning into this so that it works.”

    Here's the local FG rep:

    Local Fine Gael councillor Alan Tobin said local representatives had spent 30 years fighting for better bus services and now the department was “magically” making them available.

    He said the department “doesn’t ­negotiate, it dictates” and that he had invited Integration Minister Roderic O’Gorman to meet local people.

    Mr Tobin said planning permission to build houses on the site would not be granted due to the noise from overhead passing planes going into Dublin Airport.

    “They’re now going to put tents of people fleeing war, under severe stress, with aircraft flying overhead every 90 seconds,” he said.

    The Fine Gael councillor also raised concerns over whether the proposed number of 1,000 ­migrants being housed on the site would be ­exceeded.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Not asking what the local councillors are saying, I am asking what the leading politicians are refusing to say. Harris, Martin and O'Gorman back Thornton Hall, MLMD has disappeared while Doherty has refused to say. Senior inter-county lads, time to step up and play, or just hide on the sidelines again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,773 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Pearse Doherty said the same thing as the local councillor - lack of information to come to an informed decision.
    This is backed up by the FG person on the ground at Thornton Hall:

    the department “doesn’t ­negotiate, it dictates” 


    That, coincidentally backs up what the local FG, SF, FF people say in Coolock and Dundrum.

    Lack of proper engagement locally.

    You can run and hide all you want behind insinuation and downplaying FG and FF local councillors all you want.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    All the councillors playing junior football.

    The step up to senior inter-county isn't for everyone. We have realised this listening to Pearse.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,773 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Nobody will be stepping up to ally with TD's/Ministers and departments that 'dictate'. Because we have seen where that leads.

    FG and FF can't even depend on their own to do that.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,074 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    FG and FF can't even depend on their own to do that.

    Still talking about FF and FG in a SF thread.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,577 ✭✭✭RoyalCelt


    At this point I don't know if they do. I think SF were the lefts great hope for a new government. Hopefully all mainstream parties do so bad it takes 4 of them at least to form a coalition.

    I can no longer vote for SF and the latest poll shows them down to 18. If they stick with policies 75% of the country disagree with they're going to struggle.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,238 ✭✭✭RoTelly


    Unlikely to happen now TBH.

    I think many are thinking the current government is the best out of a bad lot.

    If the LEFT want to make any gains they have to have a election deal.

    When I say the LEFT I mean GP, LP and SD. I am excluding PBP and SF, mainly because the "LEFT" will be competing for them to gain seats.

    In rural areas where its likely only an LP candidate can win local GP and SDs should be calling for people to vote for them, and the reverse for both. Where GP is a likely winner LP and SD don't run and same for SD. (I know your going to say but we have PR if the LEFT are going to get in those areas they will transfer, this is not always the case IMO).

    In urban areas, LP should have their candidates say vote GP and SD No 2 & 3 in order of your preference, with a reciprocate slogan coming from GP and SD.

    But the three must fight hard to be seen as the LEFT block, without attacking SF or PBP rather going at FG and FF (difficult when one is in government but that's something they will have to figure out).

    SF will retain their current voter, they just need to now stop playing to the crowd, they will pick up some LEFT transfers. They won't be forming a government.

    FG and FF need to work hard to show themselves as the only real choice and their focus will be on SF and latterly to the LEFT group.

    I can see FF doing better on transfers TBH, and if I had a choice between Martin and Harris, for me it would be Martin.

    Overall like in most countries 33% vote left, centre and right, it is perhaps time that we have a real centre and a real right, whether we like it or not, and a more focused left.


    ______

    Just one more thing .... when did they return that car

    Yesterday



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,074 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    The only hope for SF is to go and do a deal with Labour/SD's/PBP in some sort of transfer pact.

    I mentioned as much 4 years ago, but it got little to no traction.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,565 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    They've spent the last decade(s) criticising those parties and very few members or elected reps of the three would even countenance it at this stage. Also, transfer pacts are far less efficient than simply not running multiple options - but most candidates are selected now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    There were motions at a PBP Congress a few weeks back to ban an election pact with SF because of their shift to the right on immigration.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,754 ✭✭✭touts


    The problem for PBP is if they refuse to be Kingmakers and the country ends up going back to the polls again 2 months after the election because no stable government can be formed then PBP will be wiped out. They need to recognise their voters are voting for change not an ideology.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 31,788 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    It doesn't matter. They are ideologically incapable of compromise.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 9,887 ✭✭✭blackwhite


    PBP had a huge scare in 2020 when for a moment they thought they'd actually be asked to participate in government.

    They've learned their lessons from that and are getting their excuses in early to make sure that, no matter what party is largest after the next election, they've already ruled them out and can sit back for another 5 years of populist soundbites and dodging ever having to make a decision.



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