Dublin Metrolink - future routes for next Metrolink

I agree wholeheartedly. Even if it was to just go from Dardistown to Tallaght initially it would still connect with 6 radial lines when everything being planned at the moment is built, as well as other potential Luas lines built in the future in the likes of Blanchardstown and Clondalkin. Ideally we would want it to go as far as Sandyford though definitely.

I think the big winner from it is the amount of land it would open up for development, particularly just north of the M50.

Do we know whether any of the alignment from the original preferred route for Metro West was retained?

Well yes, but that still leaves a significant gap between the two lines.

To put it into context, average infrastructure expenditure across G20 countries in 2023 was 4.6% of expenditure and 1% of GDP (or GNI for Ireland?).

For Ireland, that would imply an annual investment in infrastructure of around €3-4 billion. Government budgeting is far more complex, so I've no idea how accurate that is...

...but it would imply that the current pipeline of projects won't allow for another big investment until early to mid 2030s. I don't see how another €10billion+ Metro can be justified for Dublin, at the continued expense of smaller projects right across the island.

https://www.gihub.org/infratracker-insights/how-much-do-g20-governments-budget-for-investment-in-infrastructure-annually/

I’m fairly dubious of that stat due to it being central government related (not withstanding different economic conditions in each). How does it deal with state enterprises putting money in?

What is the most like for like nation as Ireland in the G20 as regards a totally centralised tax raising and virtually all expenditure?

Do you have the underlying data? Also bear in mind that our total spending for this year is €117bn.

I am not defending spending €10bn on Metro SW either. I’ve made it fairly clear on that.

Take it down Thomas and Dame Street to TCD, much quicker to the city centre.

We probably should be doing stuff that is cheap easy wins, and have 1, maybe 2 projects which eclipse 10bn.

A South West metro would be 100% more expensive than Metrolink for several reasons with a poorer CBA, an N11 luas would not be.

Metro SW - I would swing it towards the Greenhills Road direction underground - huge amount of 50 yr+ industrial buildings near there not seen from the Road / Walkinstown roundabout - a lot of it is approaching obsolesce. From there follow the Greenhills road towards Tallaght (adjacent to Ballymount (this is newer that the Greenhills industrial stock) - plenty of ground to do it at surface, including along the Airton Road district where gradually you are beginning to see old industrial units replaced with accommodation. Basically ripe for high density and terminating in Tallaght. Throw into the mix some data centers out there and you are also getting district heating piece in the future …

Anyone who thinks a SW metro isnt justified is absolutely nuts. It would be jam packed from day 1.

People conveniently forget that the Dart had to double train lengths and is still jam packed even though the catchment area is smaller than Metro SW (as obviously no houses in the sea!) and it passes through the least dense part of Dublin (larger older houses).

History tells us that if you put a rail line between any two parts of Dublin it will be jam packed. Our planners consistently under estimate denand - may I suggest that it is because they use International figures based on cities who are not PT starved.

"Cheaper easier wins" is the reason we have rubbish PT in Dublin.

I think there'll be a lot more pushback with a line going to the SE of the city which already has Dart and Luas - even if the figures add up for the SE. Political suicide for any politician who gives extra expensive infrastructure to the "richest people in Ireland" (sic), when other parts of the city have nothing.

A SW metro would free up the red Luas so you could have good density in the mass rd/bluebell area. Also Ballymount industrial estate could be developed.

You may have hit on something interesting. There may be too much reliance on the CBA as a means of deciding where investment goes. There really needs to be a Needs Analysis done first and then a CBA done on the various options ti deliver the Needs Analysis outcome.

A CBA outcome that results in large swathes of the city having no functioning transport system is invalid. All parts of the city need to function. A CBA cannot cost the impact of dysfunction or quantify the impact on quality of life. How, in a rail CBA, do you even cost something like a person from e.g. Ballyboden cant easily travel to Drumcondra. Or negative impacts such as businesses not setting up in an area because of poor public transport?

Beyond that there are technical concerns that the CBA model as used by the Department of Public Expenditure is deeply flawed in relation to the rate of return etc.

That's ok if the choice is between similar models, or if the payback is the same length of time, but if not, there is a problem. Similarly, if the do nothing option wins, which I have seen happen, the project is thrown out.