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Scottish independence

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Comments

  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 93,193 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    No need, Scotland could join the EFTA and be like Norway.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 93,193 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Labour will have a large majority. The Scottish contingent can be safely ignored.

    Even if it was a small majority Scottish labour MPs would still have to follow the party line whereas the SNP could demand a higher price.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,808 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Well Lb would want to be looking to their second term. The Scot Lb MPs will be very important then, better having been good to Scotland in the meantime.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 93,193 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    In 2015 the only seat the Liberals got in Scotland was Orkney and Shetland. Which they've held for most of the last 200 years.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 20,004 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,519 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    Well I'd say talk of independence is dead for another while.

    In the absence of anything coming from Westminster in regards to an Indy Ref 2 the SNP put its stock in the general election as a mandate for another referendum.

    But with the massive seat loss for the SNP it's seems no one was interested, regardless of the 45% or so opinion poll support for independence



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    It'll be interesting to watch the polls of indy support in the coming 12 months though: if Labour do a good job for Scotland will support drop or stay steady; intellectually it'd seem like a good showing in Holyrood would weaken support but it'll also show how embedded the independent spirit is in Scotland. As I said before we shouldn't assume SNP are the mouthpieces of independence.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,712 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Until the sturgeon clique and other crown assets are removed the SNP is finished.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 27,672 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    It is, quite clearly, not the wish of 50%+ of the population though.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 27,672 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    I suspect rather than altering support for independence it would more affect how important they consider it.



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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 40,215 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    I think the SNP are thankfully finished, by which I mean relegated to the status of a fringe party on a national level for the next decade or so.

    Independence only really makes sense in relation to living standards. Scotland has always been a very willing participant in the union, unlike Ireland. If Labour govern well, expect support for independence to erode. Time will tell.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,196 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    If Labour govern well, expect support for independence to erode

    A major point of independence is to rejoin the EU. In hindsight the EU didn't do many favours at the time of indieref by backing the tories. With that being said if Labour make some good trade deals with the EU they will clean up in 2029



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 40,215 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Anyone voting for independence to rejoin the EU without concrete assurances from the EU is in for a rude awakening. Labour have already stated that they intend to work with the EU to improve things.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,519 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    In hindsight the EU didn't do many favours at the time of indieref by backing the tories

    The tories and Labour you mean, as both were supporting a No vote in 2014.

    Bodies like the EU like stability.

    An EU member state (the UK) breaking up is not something they would endorse, thus their lack of support for independence.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,196 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    Yes the Tories and Labour were both advocating remain [in the UK] but the Tories were advocating for Scotland to remain and subsequently for the UK to leave the EU. The EU should have thought ahead and stayed as neutral as possible.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 40,215 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    No. The UK was a member state at the time. The pledge to hold the Brexit referendum came 2 years after IndyRef. It made sense for the EU to try and help the UK given it was a member.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,875 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    For obvious reasons the EU will never express support for the breakup of any state, and certainly not of a member state. Anyone who expects otherwise is delusional, and any political campaign that depends on the EU doing so is insane.

    The process for an independent Scotland (or independent anyone else) to join the EU is well-known both in theory (it's set out in the Treaties) and in practice (many states have already been through the process and others are going through it at the moment; we know what it looks like).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,519 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    The Tories did not advocate for the UK to leave the EU.

    It was not official policy, some supported Leave, some Remain.

    You remind me of Nicola Sturgeon, pointing at "the tories" all the time.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,681 ✭✭✭rock22


    @Fr Tod Umptious "Bodies like the EU like stability.

    An EU member state (the UK) breaking up is not something they would endorse, thus their lack of support for independence."

    I think the Scottish referendum was held at the same time as the illegal ballot in Catalunya . Spain ensured that the Eu took a stronger position than they might have.

    However I think Scotland would have had a relatively easy passage into the EU, less than ten years and possibly around by five as it , at that time, was already a member as part of the UK.

    If the referendum had been successful, it would be unprecedented, given the resulting break up of the UK, for the EU to automatically continue membership for one part, England Wales and NI, and deny membership to the other, Scotland. This is all moot now of course, Scotland would be applying as a third country.

    The difficulty for the independence supporters in Scotland is that neither they nor anyone else can guarantee that Scotland would be better off, economically, as an independent country. And it seems the population of Scotland want such a guarantee.



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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 40,215 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    This isn't really true though. Official party policy might have been remain but that's utterly meaningless when most prominent figures were staunch leave advocates and were platformed accordingly in the tabloid press.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 810 ✭✭✭techman1


    Another thing not often mentioned is the importance of Scotland to the British military and defence, there is a huge naval base up there along with nuclear missile sites. In the light of the Ukraine war the importance of British nuclear deterrence has only increased given that putin is always talking about nuclear strikes.

    Given that Britain and France are the only nuclear armed countries in Europe I doubt the EU would be doing anything to weaken that given the threat from putin. Therefore the last thing they would be encouraging would be a break away of Scotland, they have plenty of other bigger candidates to join like Ukraine, Moldova and balkan countries



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,196 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    BJ and his buddies in the ERG were pulling the strings in the party for a long long time before Cameron called the referendum. Nicola Sturgeon was correct to point out "the tories" at the time although I accept that the way she did it probably didn't register very well



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,196 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    But the SNP, and most of the Scottish public, are very pro-EU so the EU would have a third nuclear armed country in your scenario (and a second one today)

    On the flip side - if you look at how close the Brexit vote was, the EU were possibly hoping that Scotland remaining in the UK would sway the vote in favour of the UK remaining in the EU. And it nearly did to be fair



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,489 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo


    The nuclear weapons belong to the UK and can be relocated to rUK when Scotland is independent or Scotland can lease the facility to rUK



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,739 ✭✭✭serfboard


    I'd be fairly certain that an independent Scotland would join NATO and so these could be renamed NATO Naval bases rather than British Naval bases for those people who might care about such things. Of course the submarines would be British but they could also be American as well.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,875 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    FWIW, the position of the Scottish government in 2014 was that an independent Scotland (a) would join NATO, but (b) would not host nuclear weapons, and therefore that rUK would be invited to relocate its nuclear bases away from Scotland (which, in all likelihood, is something rUK would want to do anyway). So no drama.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,739 ✭✭✭serfboard


    The difficulty for the independence supporters in Scotland is that neither they nor anyone else can guarantee that Scotland would be better off, economically, as an independent country.

    Indeed, and had economic arguments only been used, the case for Irish independence would never have stood up either.

    And it seems the population of Scotland want such a guarantee.

    That was one of the winning strategies in the independence referendum - frightening the sh1t out of older people as to what would happen to their pensions after independence. IIRC the big demographic divide in the referendum was age - with younger people voting in favour of independence and older people voting against it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 396 ✭✭Randycove


    that was prior to the SNP ditching the Greens though, so that position may change.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,874 ✭✭✭CrabRevolution


    Boris Johnson wasn't even an MP at the time of the Scottish referendum though.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,875 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    It could. And, in any event, that was only ever a proposal. Obviously, if Scotland ever does acheive independence, it will be the post-independence Scottish government and parliament that forms and executes defence policy and nuclear policy, and we don't know who will be in government then, any more than we know who will be in government in the UK.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,196 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    Neither was Nigel Farrage, he wasn't even a TD at the time of the Brexit referendum



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,519 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,218 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Alex Salmond has died suddenly aged 69. RIP.

    I wonder is it the end of the road for Scottish independence in any case. He and Sturgeon were the two driving forces.

    With the demise of the SNP at the last Westminster election it seems to me to be firmly down the list of priorities now for Scottish voters. I wonder is it destined to move back to the political fringes.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 40,215 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Scottish independence died some time ago. It was always a fortunate (for the SNP) convergence of Labour's unpopularity, the Tories' toxicity, a capable SNP and resentment at austerity.

    RIP Alex Salmond.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,489 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo


    Salmond drove it forward, Sturgeon pushed it back

    The news of his death is a shock and it is a pity he will not be alive to see the truth come out about his stitch up

    RIP



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