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Scottish independence

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  • Registered Users Posts: 17,189 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo


    You go on about opinion polls and then state the only poll that mattered was one 10 years ago! You then introduce some sort of arbitrary criteria for allowing a referendum. You are all over the place on this



  • Registered Users Posts: 26,511 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Opinion polls on independence don't matter at all to Westminster. Unless supporters of independence are going to follow through and vote for the SNP or another pro-independence party in sufficient numbers to see them taking seats and getting into power, Westminster will pay them no attention at all. I mean, seriously, why would they even the tiniest bit about suport for independence that doesnt' translate into votes for independence?



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Hard to say. England is by far Scotland's largest trading partner. Much moreso than the EU so anyone pressing for Scottish independence is going to struggle to make what is essentially an argument for Brexit in a world where everyone knows what Brexit looks like.

    There was no unfortunate timing. Cameron & Clegg allowed the referendum at a specific point so they'd best be able to shut down the SNP and Scottish independence. He essentially gambled the United Kingdom and it worked.

    Labour won't allow another IndyRef because they won't want to lose Scottish votes while the Tories won't want to undermine the union. Neither wants to lose Scotland's utility as a naval base and its strategic importance in the north sea either.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,236 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    Hard to say. England is by far Scotland's largest trading partner. Much moreso than the EU so anyone pressing for Scottish independence is going to struggle to make what is essentially an argument for Brexit in a world where everyone knows what Brexit looks like.

    I've always said that at a high level the push for Scottish independence is no different than the push for Brexit was.

    This notion that you can ditch a long standing (centuries in this case) union for the sake of something better.

    And ditching this union will be easy and only bring benefits.

    The proponents of Scottish independence are no different than the Brexiteers with their aspirational promises.

    People previously on this thread have claimed that the SNP have provided detailed documents on how independence will be beneficial, but even skimming through those documents shows that they are nothing but aspirational.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    I've tried to point this out as well. Advocates of independence usually counter with Brexit tropes. The economic case just isn't there and that's a huge one, particularly in a post-Brexit age.

    There may well be long term benefits if EU membership can be secured. All Spain has asked for is that Scotland follow a proper constitutional process but an independent Scotland won't automatically become an EU member.

    If I were living there, I'd be against IndyRef2 until I see a properly convincing argument. So far, one has yet to appear.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



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  • Registered Users Posts: 26,511 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    I've tried to point this out as well. Advocates of independence usually counter with Brexit tropes. The economic case just isn't there and that's a huge one, particularly in a post-Brexit age.

    Yeah, but the economic case wasn't there for Brexit either; it happened anyway.

    And indeed you could make the same point about the independence of Ireland. Or of Norway. Or Slovakia. Or many other places.

    Ultimately these things are not often decided by a rational cost-benefit economic analysis; this is a question of identity and belonging. What will determine the question of Scottish independence is the tension between feeling Scottish and feeling British. The more disregard and disdain the Scots experience within the UK, the more likely they are to opt for independence, even if there is an economic cost.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Apples and oranges though.

    If Ireland reunifies, it'll be as a singe EU member state. There will of course be problems but the argument for Irish unification is an easier one for Irish Nationalists to make than Scottish independence is for Scottish Nationalists.

    The economic case wasn't there for Brexit, true but Brexit managed to kill off the concept of leaving the EU in Europe for every other member state. Le Pen, Orban, Meloni and others aren't talking about pulling out of the EU any more.

    Emotion plays a huge role in these things, sure but how much cost-benefit analysis is involved usually depends on the individual. Someone with a mortgage and a pension plan will be more reluctant than a 20-year old renting a bedroom as the latter will feel like they have less to lose. In addition, the UK is likely to rejoin the EU due to demographic change and the poor performance of the Conservative right in government over the past decade and a half. That would further weaken the case for Scottish independence.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,692 ✭✭✭eire4


    There is also the fact that most times after an election is done in the UK the government and policies Scotland has imposed on them is not what they as a country voted for. Just as they as a country were forced out of the EU against the votes of most Scots. Which of course is the ultimate irony as not being in the EU was one of the key planks that was used in the end when things seemed to be close in the last independence referendum to scare Scotland into voting no. Only for those very same people to turn around and vote Scotland out of the EU a couple of years later against the will of the majority of Scots.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,236 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    Yet the needle has barely moved when it comes to support for independence.

    With Brexit and all it's issues and such a terrible government in London you would think at this stage that support for independence would be higher, and consistently higher.

    But it's not.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Tough, honestly. I sympathise but they had their referendum when historically, most countries that attained independence (usually from the UK) had to do with a colossal amount of bloodshed.

    Sure, the EU thing panned out in a way nobody expected but they knew they'd be governed by the Conservatives anyway.

    Personally, I can't believe that Cameron even allowed the referendum to begin with. Gambling with the country like that was an abominable thing to do.

    Scottish nationalists have seriously difficult questions to answer and the public have had something of a vaccine against populism administered to them via Brexit and covid while the rest of Europe goes further down the path of far right nationalism. So far, I've yet to see anything serious from the SNP on trade or the economy. Their record governing Scotland isn't a great one either.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,689 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Most populism and nationalism feeds the far right. But in the UK it is a bit ineffective in Scotland as the Tories are currently occupying that area, leaving no room for far right politics to favour the SNP.

    Not all Scottish nationalists would support the SNP. Some would support Labour, but English Labour are strongly opposed to Scottish nationalism because they believe that the Union should be protected. But I suspect that without Scottish Labour, English Labour would be lost, and that is a strong reason to support the Union.

    Labour used to have 40 seats in Scotland, but the SNP ate their lunch. That is unforgiveable.



  • Registered Users Posts: 21,412 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    The SNPs record of governance in Scotland is not great. Perhaps if their focus over the years was on that, the bonus of swinging a majority in favour of indy would have automatically coma about. Libby Brooks gives a good feel of what its like on the ground;

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/15/scotland-in-microcosm-midlothian-voters-eye-labour-after-months-of-snp-turmoil



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,692 ✭✭✭eire4


    To be fair I think that covid hid the effects of brexit for a time and of course brexit was not in full effect straight away as it has been phased in over the years in terms of various aspects. The rubber will hit the road though in that regard over the rest of this decade as there is no hiding the damaging effects of brexit anymore.

    In terms of support for independence it has indeed been hovering at about the mid to upper 40's for most of the last decade with support higher in younger and middle age groups and lower in higher age groups which is also my experience in terms of the views of Scottish friends I have.

    IMHO Scottish independence is coming just as Irish reunification is. Its just a question of when not if IMHO. In Scotland's case there is no question though that the mess that the SNP is currently has set Scottish indpendence back.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,189 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo


    The 'experts' on here do not understand how strong the feeling is in Scotland for independence. It is not going away just because the 2014 result is what they want to cling onto



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,689 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    As I said earlier, the pro-Indy support is not all for the SNP.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,189 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo


    With support for independence bubbling around 49% - 51% and SNP support around 32%, it is clear that a large proportion of pro-independence supporters are going to vote for Labour in the next election. That is a problem for Labour as they cannot continue to refuse an offer of a decision on independence without major problems for the Scottish branch regarding democracy.



  • Registered Users Posts: 26,511 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    I don't think it is a problem for Labour, to be honest. The kind of pro-indepence sentiment that expressess support for independence in opinion polls but votes unionist in elections can safely be ignored.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,689 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Well, when voting, tere are conflcting issues.

    Voting anti-Tory is more important than voting SNP - particular when the SNP are in disarray.



  • Registered Users Posts: 26,511 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Scottish voters don't have to choose between voting for independence and voting against the Tories; voting for the SNP is both. And, in this elecction, regardless of what Scottish voters do Labour are cruising for a massive majority and the Tories are going to be flayed alive. Now more than at any other time a pro-independence voter can vote for a pro-independence party without risking a Tory government.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,689 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    If there was a chance of a IndyRef ii then perhaps the SNP might do better.

    However, voting Labour to get Labour MPs elected into the incoming Labour Gov might get a louder Scottish voice at the cabinet table - which might further Scottish interest more effectively than voting for the SNP who are having a few internal issues.

    A GE is not a single issue matter.



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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    There's none. The Scottish nationalists can bleat all they want but it is not happening. I think most Scots want better public services than their own equivalent of Brexit.

    Labour's pledged to establish GB energy in Scotland. I don't see the Tories offering the Scots anything at all, never mind anything better.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users Posts: 26,511 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Sure. I perfectly understand why Scottish people might vote Labour rather than SNP, and what they might hope would result from doing that.

    My point is just that doing so reduces pressure on/incentives for Labour to make any concessions at all to Scottish nationalist feeling, or to support independence. Labour's a unionist party; they don't cease to be a unionist party when pro-independence Scots vote for them. The only way pro-independence Scots people can advance the cause of independence is by not voting for unionist parties. I understand why they might make a choice to vote for a unionist party, but they should be clear that that is the choice they are making, and they should accept the consequences of making that choice.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,689 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Cameron offered the Scots a lot if they voted against IndyREf, but delivered zero of it. So much for the Tory trust in Scotland.

    Starmer is a Unionist.



  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,277 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    The Scots are easily pacified. Since the home rule bill in 1913 the only thing they have done about obtaining it is reject it when it was offered.



  • Registered Users Posts: 220 ✭✭Randycove


    I hear this quite a lot.

    What were the Scots promised that they didn’t get?



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,469 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    If we're talking about the same thing, IIRC there was a pronouncement, not long before the indy ref. vote, that if Scotland voted "No" it would receive what was nicknamed "Devo Max" amounting to even more autonomy from what Hollyrood already has. Open to correction here.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,689 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Devo Max never happened.

    Instead they got Dave Max in the form of Brexit.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,469 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Ah, here we are, I knew I wasn't imagining it. A "pledge" issued via the Daily Record just 48 hours before the polls opened …

    Nick Clegg though. Man remember those crazy few weeks when Clegg seemed like this new dawn? Didn't last did it.

    Just 48 hours before the polling stations open in Scotland, voters were offered a pledge. Published on the front of the Daily Record, and thus aimed prominently and squarely at the traditional Labour voters who make up a lot of the Record’s readership, “the vow” reiterated that extensive new “devo max” powers for the Scottish parliament would follow hard on from a no voteon Thursday. It also promised the continuation of the Barnett formula in calculating public spending in Scotland and it promised that the final say on NHS spending in Scotland will rest with the Scottish parliament. It ended by pledging “faster, safer and better” change for Scotland than separation.

    Signed by David Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg, the vow’s political purpose was transparent. Its aim is to steady the Labour vote in Thursday’s referendum. Enough of that vote has been slipping towards the yes campaign to ensure that the outcome remains very much in doubt. Strong commitments to protect Scottish Labour voters’ traditional material and political interests may therefore make the difference. Getting the three leaders to sign up was an attempt to show that there would be no wriggling – to say that if Scotland votes no, these things will happen.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,689 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    The IndyRef and Brexit just shows how easy politicians find it to lie on oath to further their point of view, and the more feeble their position is, the more they promise under oath, knowing they will never deliver on it whether they win or lose.



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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Absolutely but that knife cuts both ways. It's extremely common for nationalists, even those of a liberal/lefty bent, to resort to populism when it comes to economic hard truths.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



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