Scottish independence

tinytobe

I'd say, after the next general election there will be a push for the UK to rejoin the EU, whether that's feasible or not, we don't know.

Regarding Scottish independence, it's always been known that any referendum won't legally happen without Westminster's consent. Westminster said no several times. The highest court in the UK confirmed that as well. And yet Sturgeon refuses to believe that, even though she has a law degree.

And the next mistake the SNP made is turning a referendum into a neverendum causing uncertainty, unclarity and continue to divide society.

Gussie Scrotch

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120703594#Comment_120703594

The also voted to remain part of the UK though......................

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120703774#Comment_120703774

They certainly did.

However, there were pledges made to the Scottish people that if they did vote to remain, there would be additional measures towards greater devolution. Those pledges were never honoured. That alone would be grounds for a rerun of the referendum.

Francis McM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120702003#Comment_120702003

Always suspected she and her independence movement were incompetent and corrupt. Not surprised she was arrested.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120704230#Comment_120704230

And released without charge; her relative guilt may yet be ascertained, but let's not let bias get into the way of what actually happened. Arresting someone does not immediately equate to guilt, only a requirement to get testimony on the record IIRC. Otherwise we'd have no need for courts.

Danzy

Nicola and her clique have been damaging the cause of Scottish independence for years now.

It's nice to see some comeuppance, the damage will take years to overcome.

Sudden Valley

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120704544#Comment_120704544

Do you mean the SNP, or the SNP after she became leader? The SNP have gotten Scotland closer to independence then ever before and the party under her leadership has maintained their popularity.

A Dub in Glasgo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120705482#Comment_120705482

after she became leader

Mr.Nice Guy

It's just a dirty tricks campaign against Sturgeon. Anyone who thinks the timing of that arrest was simply coincidental is very naive.

Sad to see supposed supporters of independence enjoying it when it's clearly an attempt to split the movement. I'm confident all of this stuff will fade into insignificance and that Sturgeon will have a very constructive role to play in the eventual independence of Scotland.

20silkcut

https://youtu.be/VCwrbv-_PNo

A few harsh truths here?

A Dub in Glasgo

Who is Peter?

20silkcut

Peter zeihan some sort of geopolitical analyst or something.

Peregrinus

Peter Zeihan. He's a US-based political analyst with a YouTube channel, from this this video is taken.

Fair to say that his views are not uncontroversial. His primary schtick is that geopolitical outcomes are dictated much more by geography, and corresponding much less by other factors, than the majority of analysts think.

I haven't watched this video so have no opinion about what it says.

pixelburp

Seeing that video-dumps are against the charter, maybe @20silkcut you could surmise or throw in your own point of view? Not that 4 minutes is an especially long watch but for many watching videos might be tricky (travelling, in work etc); what's the thrust here?

Arthur Pants

The camper van was just resting in her mother in laws drive way @Mr.Nice Guy

Water John

Interesting to see that Orkney is reviewing its own position and considering realigning with Norway. That would be an unforeseen breakout from the UK.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120807110#Comment_120807110

Well, Orkney is more distrusting of Edinburgh than Westminster. It is a long way from Orkney to Edinburgh - if you live on Orkney.

20silkcut

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120807039#Comment_120807039

Quick summary of the video : scottish demographics are not good. They are old fat and unhealthy. The EU will never allow them to join. He really emphasised that. Scotland has no energy resources unless they go back to coal. Scotland was an attractive prospect in the 1980’s when it had plenty of North Sea oil and gas and a young population. Scotland has benefited hugely from transfers from westminister especially in the last 30 years. Most young Scottish people migrate south. It would be economic suicide to opt for independence. U.K. could offer citizenship like they did with Hong Kong which could further erode scotlands population post independence. And currency will be tied to sterling post independence with no input on monetary policy and no control of their consideration in the formation of that policy.

edit : None of this is my point of view I know very little about Scotland and am not taking any position on it here. As an Irish man I’d naturally reflexively favour Scottish independence.

Fr Tod Umptious

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120806396#Comment_120806396

I'm not sure that the EU would reject a Scottish application to join because of the health care and pension bills in Scotland.

There are plenty of other reasons that the EU would drag out Scottish membership, but that isn't one of them.

But regardless, independence votes are rearly decided on economic factors, there is usually a more "romantic" reason, a sense identity, that makes people vote for independence, we will see that clearly whenever a border poll comes to Ireland.

And so far in Scotland that romanticism or sense of identity is not strong enough to push the drive for independence.

Polls have been stuck in the 40s and 50s percent since IndyRef.

A Dub in Glasgo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120807283#Comment_120807283

It is obvious that Peter has little knowledge of Scotland either

Unflushable Turd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120707654#Comment_120707654

if only Law and Order was a devolved power that the SNP could control, then we would see none of these schenanigans...

https://www.thenational.scot/news/23525771.search-warrant-process-snp-inquiry-not-unusual-crown-office-says/

dublincc2

I saw SF were out pontificating about Catalan/Basque independence from Spain the other day, under the guise of ‘solidarity’ similar to the whole Palestine thing.

A question I have always had is, why don’t they have any solidarity with the Scottish independence movement? Not necessarily the SNP as a party, but the general IndyRef2 cause. There is a shared political opponent to both in terms of separation from Westminster. The dissolution of the union in GB is something I thought SF would be delighted about as it obviously would be a boon to a UI.

Instead of campaigning to break up a fellow EU member state, why doesn’t SF throw its weight behind Scottish independence?

Charles Babbage

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120913474#Comment_120913474

Perhaps SF do not believe that islands should be partitioned?

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120913491#Comment_120913491

But that island has been partitioned since Roman times.

L1011

Both the Catalan and Basque movements have left wing parties, albeit the Catalan one also has right wing ones. The SNP are Lib Dems basically, so not really suitable to align to.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120914849#Comment_120914849

Also, the SNP are not republicans in any way. They are fully fledged Monarchists.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120914912#Comment_120914912

So were the original SF that the current 70s SF pretends to be the same party as!

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120913474#Comment_120913474

SF's traditional position has been that, just as Britain has no business interfering in Irish affairs, so Ireland has no business interfering in British affairs. Thus they have avoided adopting any formal position Scottish (or Welsh) independence.

(You might argue that the same logic should lead them to adopt no position on Catalan independence. And you might have a point. But the context is different; SF isn't embroiled against its will in Spanish politics as they are in British politics.)

tinytobe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120914912#Comment_120914912

Some SNP voters favour a republic, but I think they are not a majority of them.

The officiall position of the SNP seems to be to keep the monarchy.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120918917#Comment_120918917

That's wise for both sides.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120918982#Comment_120918982

The SNP's position is that the appropriate form of government for a sovereign Scottish state is a decision for the Scottish people to make, but it takes second place to the decision on independence.

Back at the time of the 2014 referendum, the SNP proposal set out in the Scottish government's white paper was that Scotland would become independent under an interim constitution which would provide for the the monarch of (the rump of) the UK to be monarch in Scotland in the same way as in Canada, Australia, New Zealand, etc. In other words, Scotland would be a Commonwealth realm. However within two years of independence there would be elections for a Constitutional Convention to debate and frame a proposed constitution for Scotland which would then be put to the people for their approval (or rejection) in a plebiscite. In the context of that process there would be a debate, and a decision, about whether Scotland should have a monarchical or a republican form of government.

This was obviously a strategy to park the issue and therefore avoid the pro-independence movement splitting over the question of the monarchy. As part of the same strategy most leading SNP figures have been fairly reticent about the question so we really don't know which of them are ardent monarchists, which are convinced republicans and which don't actually have strong views on the subject.

Polling suggests that, excluding don't knows, the Scots favour a monarchy over a republic by a margin that varies, depending on which poll you look at, between 4% and 16%. Such a wide variation suggests that a lot of people don't have very fixed views, and/or don't attach much importance to the question, so it's one on which opinion might shift relatively easily. Of course, the shift could be in either direction.

However the question is asked in terms of whether an independent Scotland should be a republic or a monarchy, the polling is much more evenly balanced. A YouGov poll came down 41:40 in favour of the monarchy; a more recent Lord Ashcroft poll came down 46:38 against the monarchy.

But in terms of where the SNP might eventually come down, it's worth noting that views on the monarchy/republic question are strongly correlated with views on the union/independence question. Among those who voted yes to independence in 2014, 57% favour a republic and 31% a monarchy; among no voters, it's 61% for a monarchy and 24% for a republic. That does suggest that the SNP may be more likely, when the time comes, to back a republic; it's what their constituency prefers.