Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

5 years in government saw a massive massive increase in housing units built. The most in any 5 year period since 2007 by a country mile. Despite a 2 year pandemic and a global supply chain disaster. Record numbers of First Time Buyers getting houses, increasing every year.

And in that 5 year period since 2019, house prices stayed the same in real terms.

If they’re trying to make it worse, they’re not doing a very good job.

I posted the official stats a few pages back. Real prices in Dublin down a good bit since 2019. Countrywide up slightly.

I will say there has been some worrying signs in late 23/ early 24 of prices taking off again which is a real shame.

22 & 23 were great years where wages outpaced house prices. If we had a couple more years like that then the affordability issues could have gone away in a controlled manner which would have been ideal. Let’s hope the recent moves upwards don’t continue.

I think you consistently overestimate the impact of government interventions in the purchase market. I posted some stats on them a while ago, the new ones like shared equity represented a tiny fraction of the market spend. HTB has been around a long time now and its impact should be lessening each year as the price ceiling and subsidy amount are not being indexed.

Price growth has kicked off again across most countries. Even Australia which was suffering badly is now soaring again. Generally speaking we tend to follow global trends. It’s not some little crazy Ireland bubble like it was in the mid 2000s. If anything our increases this time have been very tame vs others due to our relatively restrictive lending.

Our overall house price to income ratios also remain one of the lowest in the developed world. You desperately seem to want it to be 2005 again but I’m afraid it just isn’t.

Look at the increased income tax take over the last couple of years to see how well people are doing financially.

I agree that sorting out the rental sector should be the absolute priority.

You don't have any source for the amount of first time buyer grants drawn down last year by any chance

https://www.revenue.ie/en/corporate/documents/statistics/tax-expenditures/help-to-buy-annual-report-2023.pdf

7,200 total. C.75% for non self build. So let’s say 5,500 rounding up.

60k property transactions last year for non self builds. So HTB is a MAXIMUM (not everyone will be eligible for this maximum due to not paying €30k in tax) of 10% of the purchase price in less than 10% of the houses bought last year. So you’re talking significantly less than 1% of the money being spent in the market last year coming from HTB.

EDIT. Used some more numbers in the reports. Of the money spent in the property market in Ireland last year. HTB represented roughly 0.5% of it. As I’ve said previously. It’s a drop in the ocean. Shared equity is even less.

in with the estate agent today and she said they could already see signs of strain with people paying e.g. 340k for houses the estate agent only felt were worth 280k could be quite a few burnt over the next while if this continues

I don’t see any rationale why HTB would be having a YoY inflationary impact as it has not be altered since 2022? (I agree there may be some overall inflation in certain smaller cohorts in absolute terms).

If anything on a YoY basis the HTB should be deflationary as its relative power in less than it was in prior years due to the non indexing cap and value.

Only possible inflationary angle would be people earning more, so on average obtaining more of the maximum grant than previous years.

Last time I checked FHS was barely off the ground. Not sure the long term scale planned and if it could become inflationary. From what I remember the caps are very restrictive to the point it won’t be much use in Dublin and surrounds (similar to FTB)

I’m not seeing the same numbers as you. I wouldn’t compare new builds to second hand as they just behave differently. There was a period in 2020 when second hand houses were going way up and new builds were flat. Then recently second hands were falling but new builds increasing. I think there is a lag based on the way new builds are sold with long delays to closing so YoY comparisons are distorted.

So just looking at FTB vs SSB new builds. 2018-2023. FTB up 21%, SSB 21%. 2022-2023 only. FTB 7%. SSB 9%.

There’ll be some volatility in the above so I’m not saying it factually proves HTB is absolutely not inflationary. It probably is. But it’s a rounding error if it is. It gets weaponised by certain political parties and unfortunately some young disenfranchised people catch onto it and genuinely believe with all their heart that if it’s removed that prices will fall dramatically (hint: they won’t)

The total spend on HTB over the last 7years since it was created is €0.9bn. The total value of property transactions in 2024 alone was c. €20bn. It’s a fart in the wind. A complete and utter red herring.

any thoughts on HTB and FTB schemes - are they worth signing up for or is it a terrible idea to have the government involved in owning a portion of your new higher priced house when you may have been happier to buy an older cheaper house in the first place

Now use this mechanism to go after those that use the planning system for extortion

That what stands out most, in a year of 35k first time buyers only 5k purchased new homes with all the subsidies. Is the price gone beyond the vast majority of ftb

Another bit of related info was that the top 7.7% pay more than 50% of the income tax. If this is the case that 7.7% seriously skews the average wage in the country, which begs the question what is the average salaries of the first time buyer demographic

just use median instead of average!!!