Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

spillit67

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122173416#Comment_122173416

Lyons has also made good points that much of the housing built in the Tiger was in the wrong places.

I think that accounts for some of his aggressiveness in the targets.

I’d note he hasn’t really brought that up (and that report might not be the best place for it), but I’d also say that WFH culture has given at least a short term reprieve from that (whilst simultaneously driving prices up outside of Dublin).

spillit67

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122173642#Comment_122173642

Well that was a point I raised earlier.

We have supposedly more empty nesters than the rest of Europe but also a housing size that is too high.

The logical conclusion to that is that you don’t need to just look at the number of units per 1,000. We have to consider the size of the houses we have and there is low hanging fruit in terms of releasing some of this under occupied housing.

The answer here is the same, build more studios, 1 beds and 2 beds.

But if our housing size is really going to go towards 2 by 2050, we need a sea change in culture. That includes a tolerance for Swedish and Finnish sized studios. I personally think that there needs to be a push from policy makers on this. Most people from the country have no issue with moving out at 18 for college and also getting a driving licence at 17. It’s a necessity. There’s a bit of a culture thing in Dublin against that. I think if you started seeing €400-€500 per month studios that you might see an attitude change.

spillit67

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122174041#Comment_122174041

I went to view one of those a few weeks ago. They are beautiful and a lovely part of Greystones, the right side of town for me and close enough (a lot of the developments out there are too far from town for my tastes).

That’s a massive house to be frank. Bit odd that they are using the 3 bed duplex photos there for that house though.

That said, I struggle with Greystones given the connections. You are really out there once you get out there.

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122179149#Comment_122179149

Noise from the dart line is the only drawback and suspect you would soon get over that.

I think it looks relatively good value vs some similarly priced houses in the area such as the Archers Wood equivalent or similar sized but older houses in Woodlands. A great builder also so you know quality will be there. Would definitely be considering it if we hadn’t bought already.

spillit67

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122179255#Comment_122179255

I think it will ultimately hold its value. I agree on the location here vs. other ones in the locality.

If you are someone from Dublin though, you aren’t moving here to be in touching distance. You are just really committed to Greystones (until the day that they really improve DART services), which is fine. Lovely part of the world and a great place to raise a family.

Everyone has different preferences though so I don’t like to criticise. I see so much of that from older folks on social media running down new developments (and the prices!). The vast majority of new builds are a significant step up in quality on what was built even 15 years ago. The amount of older folk going on like they’re old squires of the land when they bought a cookie cutter semi D in 1992.

amacca

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122168342#Comment_122168342

Agreed...who the **** would want to rent with overholding being such a risk

You cant shift problem tenants for way way too long or have a realistic mechanism to deter the wrong kind of tenant thrashing a property or pursue for damages

And of course they did away with bedsits without any alternatives.…a big part of the problem is successive policy/ideology failures

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122179837#Comment_122179837

We took the plunge a few years ago and moved out (with a fair bit of trepidation) having spent most of our adult life in SCD. Couldn’t pay me to move back in to Dublin now. Probably too far out for a 5 day per week office commute to town though.

arctictree

Maybe it's just me but I'm still amazed by the price. I mean even half that is one heck of a wedge of money. During the last recession it was these highly priced properties that lost the largest percentage. Its a huge risk.

Villa05

And here was I hoping we could coax UK builders to come here

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2024/0524/1450908-sisk-wins-350m-contract-to-expand-man-citys-etihad/

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122179962#Comment_122179962

A UK subsidiary/branch of an Irish company gets a large contract (happens regularly enough) so what impact does that have on Irish housing market? It’s got its workforce in the UK already and as the UK have similar housing shortages to Ireland and trades people in high demand.

unless they have personal reasons to move to Ireland there is no incentive as they have plenty of work in UK.

Do you think Ireland is the only country that has a housing shortage and a shortage of trades people? It’s the same story in nearly all western countries at present.

Villa05

Revealing Interview with Michael O Flynn on the Housing Commission report

https://www.rte.ie/radio/radio1/clips/22399606/

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122180447#Comment_122180447

And what is revealing about it

combat14

sounds like housing commission want to up rents to attract more landlords

what are the chances that the government will abolish RPZs before the next general election - unless they are mad to lose a ton of votes and have a ton of protesters out on the streets all over ireland absolutely none

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122180447#Comment_122180447

4 minutes belly aching the Minister hasn’t immediately accepted all recommendations. Spoke about a particularly key recommendation in circles but gave absolutely zero insight into how this oversight body would operate or be effective

1 minute getting the public onside saying developers don’t want high prices.

2 minutes saying developers can’t make any profit even at current prices.

The rest lobbying for more taxpayer subsidies by eliminating VAT on building and to zone more land (i.e. lower my input costs please…promise we’ll sell cheaper houses then).

I’m a fan of O’Flynn but thought this was a particularly poor interview. His views on the right to housing referendum were the only interesting bit for me. The rest was very banal and predictable.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122179962#Comment_122179962

Sisk are specialist infrastructure builders and have worked in the UK for ages. Built the recent Blackpool tram extension.

The actual builders are unlikely to be the same people as Irish house builders need

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122180849#Comment_122180849

They would be better off overhauling the RTB, pulling the claims procedures out of the courts and making the rights of landlords and tenants more equal.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122181226#Comment_122181226

The 4 minutes was frustration with the minister saying he was implementing 75% of the commissions findings. If the minister said he and predecessors were responsible for 75% of the problems, we would be closer to the truth. But the minister has form in this regard. Agreed he went of in a tangent with 1 aspect which the listener will be no wiser

1 minute if you make a product unaffordable you price yourself out of the market and work = everybody looses

2 minutes saying developers can't get funding unless they can show a significant margin, therefore need to look at the funding model. This is a little different to saying can't make a profit

He mentioned vat was 3% when he started business now, It's 13, The cost of housing provision/services to the state is recurring not one off. Need to find a way to remove this tax from new supply and make it an annual tax amongst all households without the developers pocketing it

His views on right to housing referendum only reinforced mine. I would expect a rejection greater than the last 2 referendum. Further waste of time and money.

It's just interesting hearing it coming from a developer who could make a killing if it was introduced

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122181388#Comment_122181388

I disagree on removing vat all that would happen is builders would rise house prices by 10%. In reality government has removed vat on new builds it called HTB. It paid directly to FTB. Even if government tried to remove vat its quite possible the EU commission would prevent it. We need to sit and wait 2 years as supply will ramp up IMO.

The refurbishment, HTB and shared equity are all kicking in, it time we need now to see the results.

amacca

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122181342#Comment_122181342

100%

Middleage Fanclub

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/ballygannon-kilcoole-wicklow/4799989

So I've bought new builds, 100+ year old houses and renovated old houses to modern standards and for me, this represents value. A big A rated house on a big plot with very well maintained garden. The fantasy theme wouldn't be too hard to erase but would probably put off a few buyers.

markw7

It's very reassuring when people are posting that houses on the market for a million euro represent value.

I'm not even going to bother with viewings anymore... cannot wait for this house of cards to collapse.

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122184341#Comment_122184341

You could be waiting years.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122184362#Comment_122184362

More likely a decade+

Drog79

I think the underutilization problem will balance over the coming years with more and older adult children remaining at home.

SharkMX

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122174784#Comment_122174784

What ive noticed the last few years is that even if an older family member could be convinced to downsize, if something decent was available for them and there was enough money left over to actually be useful to them, they still dont want to go from 3 or 4 bedrooms to 1 or 2.

Because they now have children and grandchildren living far away from them and they want to have somewhere for them to stay when they come for a visit, because expecting them to pay 3 or 400 euro per night in a hotel for a family of 4 is a joke.

SharkMX

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122177126#Comment_122177126

Have seen a few times now people looking into it and all for the idea, reality hits them hard when they see whats available and the changes they would have to make to their lives.

amacca

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122184341#Comment_122184341

In fairness, its a big house on a big plot, looks well maintained, A rated 5 bed, 4 bath..lots of parking space, well finished....while I think prices for some things are crazy and you might well struggle to get the colour of that for it in a downturn ..... it does represent value for a certain buyer in the current market if you like the location etc

Especially when you see the kind of shiteholes making 750k in some places

SharkMX

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122175675#Comment_122175675

Or Dinny and Denises nameless daughter meets Anders when off to Sweden for the summer. He gets her up the duff and she comes home. Anders may or may not come to live with them too in the next few months.

So, so many ways this dynamic can change. We do it all the time where I work. You create a scenario to fit the results you want to demonstrate. You can prove anything you like doing that.

SharkMX

5 more people join the game of musical chairs. One more chair is added. Things going to get interesting :)

SharkMX

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122176762#Comment_122176762

There are so many council houase that have spare rooms in them. If you started (because the state owns them so should be easier) with these and optimized them all you could see how well it works before trying to move on to privately owned property.