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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 351 ✭✭SpoonyMcSpoon


    Interesting back and forth above. One big factor in future Irish housing market is politics and we have seen in the recent elections that Independents have flourished. Noting that older home owners are more likely to vote than younger people means that parties which place a large emphasis on individual success in society on house prices increasing over time will do well. With changing demographics and home ownership a pipe dream for the majority of probably 30-40% of the electorate (many of whom don’t actually vote), it begs the question as to what will happen as this group of non-homeowners become the majority of voters over time.

    I have seen some pretty strong views spoken from young professionals who are renters about what should happen to the housing market including that it would be great to see house prices and rents completely collapse. The further out of reach home ownership becomes, the more extreme renters seem to get in their views. How common are these views among renters I wonder and what impact this will have on politics going forward?

    At 36 onwards is where we see more people home owners than renters, rising dramatically from 26 years in 1991 and 28 years in 2008. I think only slightly more than half of the electorate are aged over 36. All the data is moving very quickly in the direction of the majority of the electorate being renters in the next 15 years, unless the housing market becomes easier to access (which means lower prices without hits to purchaser power or additional purchaser supports).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    council don’t have houses to sell to tenants and haven’t had for years. It’s affordable housing where the shared ownership is used to help people buy a house.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,132 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    I’m saying this as a 37 year old who owns a home. If I were a young man again, I would happily take my chances in a 2008 style crash than I would in an attempt to carve out a life in this perpetual growth machine.



  • Posts: 12,836 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Many seem to have forgotten just how bad the crash was



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,132 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    As with many things in life, it depended on your situation. As it was a deflationary situation, it meant that prices were lower (a lot lower), the cities were less crowded, costs of living were lower and the state was broke, so it didn’t have the resources to cause mayhem as it does today. Was it better? I don’t know, but there are people up and down this country who are praying for a crash, and that alone says something.

    Personally speaking, I would lose out if a crash were to happen, but that’s just my own subjective situation.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 351 ✭✭SpoonyMcSpoon


    Personally I don’t think it was that bad; it was a period of maybe 6/7 years of uncertainty after 20 years of prosperity and the last 9/10 years have been prosperous. So, in the last 30 years we have only had 6/7 years of negativity in the property market.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 21,939 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    And who were the winners in the last crash. It was mostly people with capital tgat were willing to invest. The young men and women got jobs as interns getting paid nothing. The people in there 40's and 50''s willing to take a risk bought 2nd and 3rd houses, made .obey on shares etc.

    Tge 25-30 year old rented cheap and taught houses woukd never again get expensive

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,649 ✭✭✭willabur


    its so frustrating in the market at the moment. We are lucky enough to own our home but we have awful neighbours and would like to move. The market just seems completely paralyzed, there is so little stock going on and what is there is just going nuts in terms of prices. Seems to be plenty of cash buyers around also that are blowing people like ourselves out of the market the rare time something comes on. The other thing I have seen is old people holding onto houses looking for mad prices for what they have so they can afford to downsize. the whole thing is paralyzed



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,132 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    Pretty much this. As I always say, the boomer meme hangs around for a reason.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,037 ✭✭✭Villa05


    You make a strong argument for the state to implement a mid tier affordable rent market

    Gifting people subsidised homes only helps a few individuals here and now and the State land is gone

    In 10 years time we will have the same problem but the state will have more debt and less land and be at the mercy of developers.

    I really don't understand the opposition to it. Is it that people want the state to pay the maximum price, thus increasing there own home value

    Fools gold if it is as your only blowing another asset price bubble. We haven't paid back the damage from the last one. A convenient fact some Posters are forgetting this morning



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,778 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Cheap rent and not being able to buy a house was much better than expensive rent and not being able to buy a house I'll tell you that much.

    The crash was awful for many people, but those who lost big in the crash with equity etc have since regained as house prices have rebounded.

    Those who didn't lose much as didn't own property mostly still don't as prices have rocketed since. But now renting is no longer affordable either.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,132 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    In 2009, I was on minimum wage for 6 months in Athlone. I was able to rent an ensuite room in a pretty nice house just 5 minutes walk from work for 250 euro. I didn't have a snowball's chance in hell of buying property at that time (nor did I want want to), but when your rent is less than 20% of your monthly income and you're pretty comfortable, it's not such an issue.

    These days, someone on minimum wage who's renting may well have to share a room, never mind a bathroom.



  • Posts: 12,836 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    And in 2009 Ireland had the second highest unemployment in the OECD, was adding 10s of billions to its national debt whilst in a budgetary deficit and was spending €0 on infastructural projects. Looking back on that with rose tinted glasses is frankly bizarre. Many of the issues we face today stem from how poor we were in that period.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 2,991 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    Even today in the midst of a housing shortage there are politicians vetoing housing projects whole-sale. Deliberate squishing of supply in order to reinflate a bubble.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,778 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    In 2015 things were much better than 09, and still rent was almost half what it is now.

    A room in Galway cost roughly 300pm, above that was considered steep. Now a shared room ranges from 600 to 800pm.

    Most people renting then have not seen their disposable income double in the past decade, is it any wonder people would hope for a crash?



  • Posts: 14,768 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I’m going to call BS on that. I have a rental property in Galway, €300 pm would get you a room in a shiiitehole student house and you are going to have to show me that €800 only gets you a twin bed in a shared room. You are taking outliers at both ends, where you might be able to produce the odd ad, and applying it as the average.

    We have 500k more people now compared to 2015, a high earning tech driven workforce who can now live anywhere in the country and work from home, and you appear to have forgotten just how bad things were in 09, so of course 2015 would be better.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    it’s not just to reflate the bubble let’s not forget one of the biggest objectors think a house should only cost 300k…that doesn’t sound like bubble territory.

    granted all political parties are using objecting as a political football. Imagine what they could do if they actually worked together to solve the problem



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,037 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Galway is a different beast, but Limerick did not bottom until easter 2014. Rents were considerably cheaper in 14/15 than 2009, albeit with the Dell rout



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,778 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    300pm would barely get you a box room in ballybane

    800pm is a room in a house share, not a twin room. Equivalent to the 300pm standard in 2015 which was a double room across most areas of the city. And neither is an outlier - 300pm or max 80pw was going rate for many years incl 2015.

    Looking at house hunting groups and daft ads for rents show few below 800 mark. Double or more of rent in less than a decade



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,917 ✭✭✭DataDude


    Even if you ignore the economic hardship, austerity etc etc of the period of 2009-2015, and focus solely on the fact property was incredibly cheap to both buy and to rent. Through that narrow lens, it may seem like some sort of paradise to look back on with envy…but it was utterly unsustainable.

    It was THE event which caused the housing deficit which many of the same posters longing for 2009 again give out most about today. It may have been brief relief for the renters of that era, and permanently good for the cash rich of that era (who could buy), but the 100s of thousands of units that weren’t built during that period, and all the tradespeople that left, and all the potential tradespeople who didn’t do an apprenticeship is precisely the cause of the pain of today.

    Wishing for some sort of Armageddon in the property market whilst simultaneously complaining there are not enough properties being built is hypocritical in my opinion.

    Post edited by DataDude on


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,037 ✭✭✭Villa05


    All the more reason to have or work towards a stable market today with product for all price points. We have the land, capital and the industry claim the labour can be got.

    That hardship was caused by overpriced property afterall



  • Posts: 14,768 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    How do you stop those that earn more outbidding those who earn less?

    If the answer is build enough houses that there is cheaper houses for everyone, private developers will stop building long, long before that point is ever reached.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    do we have the capital? Without investors to bank roll it we don’t. And if you say government surplus it doesn’t even touch the sides



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 383 ✭✭Montys return


    Genuine question on the 2nd piece because I think you've made an interesting point, how do you think the problem should be solved?

    I still can't get my head around the paradox that rising prices to stimulate supply will somehow generate adequate levels to eventually reduce demand ergo prices. Should help with rents, but I can't see how people will be able to meet asking prices that can't already presently.



  • Posts: 14,768 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    People are meeting asking prices at present, there aren’t many properties remaining unsold. What is happening currently is that we have a larger population, increased numbers of higher wage earners, mostly in pharma/fintech, dual income buyers, not enough houses, coupled with poorly thought out rental legislation which caused unintended consequences. There are many, many other contributing factors like poor planning, parents gifting children large sums for deposits, the reluctance of home owners to support policies which devalues their primary asset, remote working, poor public transport etc etc.

    How do I think it can be solved? It can’t, there has never been a time when everyone could afford everything they wanted, despite posters nostalgia for the good old days when a single income could buy a house, a significant proportion of the population had to emigrate during those times because they had no work and couldn’t afford a house. Public servants/bank workers were the equivalent of our fintech workers of today, good jobs that made it easier to get a mortgage and buy a home. Ireland now has full employment lots of high income earners and people don’t need to leave to find a job, so of course that ratchets up demand for property and those same public servants are no longer able to get the mortgages necessary to buy a home. Times have changed, but teachers and Gardai are never going to earn the equivalent of an IT worker in high demand. Such is life and career choices.


    You read posters bleating on about the State building houses, to build in the quantities necessary to move prices significantly downwards would cost tens of billions, which we don’t have, expertise and oversight in the public sector, which we have proved we don’t have, and the will of the people, which we won’t get as it would cause the value of their homes to slump and trap many in negative equity.

    If you want more houses, you make planning easier and you incentivise private developers, not with threats, with tax incentives that encourages building even if the selling prices are falling. Posters may object to developers benefitting from tax incentives, but if they want more houses and the government can’t/wont build them, then you have no option but to look to the private sector, and they absolutely will not build if prices/profits fall below a certain level.

    Post edited by [Deleted User] on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,132 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    I'm not wishing for a crash. As it is, I'd lose out. My point is merely that for many people, a 2008 crash would be a welcome thing.

    One thing I do believe is that nothing short of a crash is going to change the situation here regarding housing. There was talk earlier in the thread that something in the order of 1.5 million units will be needed in the next 25 years to keep up with the demand. In my own town in Wexford, there are already major congestion problems due to population rises, and there are another 1000 houses planned for the area.

    For how long can chasing the infinite growth fairy be sustained? Is it even worth it? The only things that I see in the future are rising costs, declining quality of life, environmental damage and social decay.

    Anyways, that just my two cents.



  • Posts: 14,768 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Who are these many people who would welcome a crash like 2008?

    Are they people sitting on a cash pile, immune from the effects of a catastrophic financial meltdown, or are they idiots who have no comprehension of what it was like?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,132 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    If you're consistently getting out bid on unremarkable houses or apartments by investors, the state or otherwise whilst simultaneously paying thousands on rent each month and watching your expenditures rise, how do you think you'd feel? As I've said before, if I were in that situation and I was ten years younger, I'd take my chances in a crash.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 2,991 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    I would also add into that the disheartening bidding process that is a haven for bad faith actors, so it is wasting of time as well.

    Hardly surprised people are turning to a burn the system down mentality. Politicians have shown zero intention of fixing the problem, and if anything are intentionally making it worse.



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  • Posts: 14,768 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    If you were young enough to not understand what had to happen for that crash to occur, and the impact it had on life in this country, it may be possible, just about, to understand why they may think life would be better as you didn’t experience the crash. If you lived through that period, and now think it was a good time, then you don’t have the benefit of lack of experience as an excuse. Surely you understand that even if you were young again, there is no reason to think you would be unaffected by such a crash, and that you would be able to buy a house when banks would not lend to you.

    Post edited by [Deleted User] on


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