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Sinn Fein and how do they form a government dilemma

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,115 ✭✭✭pureza


    I'd have though FF and FG cooperating healed relationships,wheres the toxicity ?

    I'm confused



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,472 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Disaster? That's a bit of an exaggeration tbh.

    SF were talked about in leading the next government with a left-wing party.

    Some were getting giddy at the prospect that SF could get an overall majority.

    Now, those days are done.

    SF support is back to where it was in 2020, at the last GE.

    Their only option to power is now with FF or FG, so there goes the "Change" argument

    And guess what?

    Their support has fallen where they have not spent one day in power, not one.

    Across the water, Labour has a 20-point lead on the Tories, even though Sir Keir Starmer, isn't all that popular.

    FG has been in power 14 years, and SF is in the margin of error next to them.

    Yeap, in hindsight its a disaster.

    SF should be out of sight, but they made bags of it.

    The people have gotten tired of their consistent whining, their flip flopping, their lack of solutions and policies.

    Immigration has hit them very very hard and their working-class voters are abonding them in droves as the polls are suggesting.

    Even their candiates are quite weak. The SF guy on upfront was like white bread. Weak and tasteless. They have a serious lack of talent in their ranks.

    And while their party is out trying to get votes, MLMD is off to the US, swanning about about place attending expensive BBQ's trying to raise money.

    She has more or less thrown in the towel, she is nowhere to be seen. What is her view on immigration? No one really knows.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,220 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    It would consign them to opposition again untill at least 2030 on recent trends as the current government would get reelected though wouldn't it

    Yes, if a GE returned the last poll results, I think FF/FG and others would be too tempted to not change (although I still think another coalition of the two will provoke internal strife in FF)

    I'd also still put a lot of store in an actual election campaign.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,472 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    You blamed FF and FG and the 'powerswap' for the toxicity in Irish politics.

    These are your words.

    Now, either you are making stuff up… again, or you genuinely believe it.

    Either or, can you elaborate on it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,220 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    WRONG.
    Read posts properly please:

    But it is my opinion (sorry you disagree with it) that the fact that power swapped between just two parties (through no sinister manipulating or fault of their own) led to the situation we have had for quite a while. Two parties who are essentially the same, in a cozy relationship which has led to a level of toxicity in Irish politics and governance.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,220 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    SF were talked about in leading the next government with a left-wing party.

    Some were getting giddy at the prospect that SF could get an overall majority.

    Neither of these two apply to me.
    Take it up with those who posted in that way.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,472 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Two parties who are essentially the same, in a cozy relationship which has led to a level of toxicity in Irish politics

    Elaborate on the bit in bold please.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,472 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Ok, lets go back to the question at hand.

    How do SF form a government, and how do they form one without FG and FF?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,220 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    By reaching the requisite numbers in a GE.
    And then via negotiation of a palatable programme for government.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,762 ✭✭✭standardg60


    You should have included the 'cozy relationship' bit cos it's the new pejorative term from power swap.

    Of course a coalition of SF/FF which the poster has been advocating, indeed stipulating that it is FFs 'last chance saloon' could never be described as such. That would instead be a 'negotiation of a palatable programme for Government'.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,220 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    There is such a thing as a coalition between two different parties where they agree to compromise on policy principles. Nothing wrong with a proper respectful coalition. The parties can go their separate ways after, integrity intact. The tendency in the coalitions we have had to date here has been the minor party scapegoated and sundered at the polling booth.

    The coming together of FF and FG after years of 'civil war' politics didn't happen overnight. I think they grew comfortable and complacent about their dominance, and they grew more and more alike bar the sham fighting.
    That was what I was referring to when I said 'cozy relationship'.
    As I said they knew either would not be out of power long if they kept it up.
    The emergence of an opposition capable of forming a government without them, easily joined them together. The sham was over, a key change on the Irish political landscape.
    Is the above pejorative? Maybe, so what? Plenty of political parties here are referenced pejoratively.

    SF could go the same way, who knows. I'll recognise it if I see it happening though.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,472 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    That is the most banal answer possible. Well done.

    No substance and no thought behind it.

    Which parties should SF negotiate with and what number of seats would be a good outcome for SF?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,472 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    The emergence of an opposition capable of forming a government without them,

    When was this now?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,220 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    That is the most banal answer possible.

    Banal?

    Isn't that what happens after every election where nobody has a majority?

    Why don't you excite us and tell us what other way it should work?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,220 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    IMO the rise of SF forced FF and FG to coalesce. I think they had become so close ideologically and the 'I'll never coalesce with FG' rhetoric was essentially a bluff it was an easy thing to do.

    The difficult bit is incoming - how do they now sell something different to the electorate. The next GE will be fascinating from that point of view. Have they inadvertently welded themselves together for all time or will there be a push internally to try make them distinct political entities again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,472 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    You didn't answer the questions and you are talking like a solicitor.

    What parties should SF negotiate with and what number of seats would be a good outcome or SF in the next GE



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,472 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    So, SF were capable of forming a government in 2020..

    With who?

    And why didnt that happen?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,220 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Seriously?

    Why don't you tell us how it should work any differently to previous government formations?

    SF should negotiate with any willing parties.

    And enough seats to give them bargaining power to implement their policies would be a 'good outcome'.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,220 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    A government was formed between three parties. Two parties had less seats than SF and a third had the same amount. Pre-election, two of those parties rubbished the idea of them coalescing with each other, one ruling it out forever.

    Two of those parties would not negotiate with SF, the numbers or stability was not there to form a government without one of those two, so SF were not capable of forming a government.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,472 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    SF should negotiate with any willing parties.

    A bit of a non answer, but you just conceded that you are happy for FF and FG to go into power with SF>

    And enough seats to give them bargaining power to implement their policies would be a 'good outcome'.

    So a rotating Taoiseach it is then, if not going into power as a junior member.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,472 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Thanks for the history lesson, but you still didn't answer the question.

    You stated categorically that SF had the ability to form a government without FF and FG.

    capable of forming a government without them,

    When was this and why did it not happen?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,220 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    What do you mean?
    How is saying, 'SF should negotiate with any willing parties' a contradiction of saying I am happy for them to coalesce with FF or FG? (I am not happy by the way, I am pragmatic though)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,122 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    I find it ironic that the rise of SF puts FF essentially in the position of kingmaker. When we get a result with 30-35% SF and 30-35% FG, FF can decide who to put in government. SF enabling "change" by going into coalition with FF would be hilarious and on one hand would be great as it would truly show the electorate that SF are about as much for change as anyone else.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,220 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Yes, IMO I think FF and FG in 2020 were frightened that if the election was re-run SF could have gained more seats and that forced them to end the charade that they were 'forever' opposed and coalesce.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,472 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    You just said, SF should negotiate with any willing party.

    If FF and FG are willing in the next GE, then that is what will happen. Why negotiate with a party you dont want to form a government with?

    Your carefully crafted, non-answering way of debating is dishonest by the way. We can all see it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,549 ✭✭✭Raoul Duke III


    The reality is that a SF-FF government would face exactly the same set of political challenges (and opportunities!) as the current FFG one. And would govern with pretty much identical policies too.

    The politics of governance (as opposed to shouting from the sidelines in opposition) in Ireland invariably lead back to a squidgy centrism. SF would be no exception, except probably less competent given their total lack of experience in the role.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,472 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Oh, now you 'think'?

    Sorry, but the facts don't back you up.

    So, in reality, you concede that SF has never had the opportunity, given the numbers to form a government outside of FF and FG?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,472 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    This.

    The more and more people see of SF, the less impressed they are. They have very little talent among their ranks and on key issues they have more or less disappeared.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,122 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    FG won't negotiate with them, and as an FG voter if they change that stance then they lose my vote. The rest probably will but I can't see a realistic scenario where FF is not required for SF to get in.

    True. But you'd either see a government where SF were "exposed" by not carrying out their pre election promises (non costed of course!), or a government of no change to status quo, or alternatively a government where they borrow us into a mountain of debt and back to the ECB again in an attempt to carry out their uncosted plans. None of that is good for SF.

    If I were SF I'd be torn between getting into government now, or, if the data showed we were likely to continue gaining votes going forward, stay in opposition again.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,122 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    SF had the numbers in 2020 for the coalition of the left and independent but chose not to. FF+FG had less than the (then) requisite 80/1 seats.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Irish_general_election#cite_note-91



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