Football ranking table

laoisman11

• The biggest shock of last weekend was Laois's surprise bonus-point win over Kildare - Kildare fall to 21st, their lowest since July 2008
• Roscommon and Antrim both had big wins, moving up 3 and 6 places in the rankings, respectively
• Armagh dropped 0.4 rating points after their draw with Galway; Dublin dropped 1.6 rating points after their draw with Mayo
• There appears to be a clear "top 7", with Roscommon, Derry and Louth in the chasing group
• For the Tailteann Cup semi-finalists, Laois appear to be the weakest team by a relatively large margin

dinjo99

Love the work you do on this Laoisman. Donegal were predicted to win by 9 but won by 25 I think. Do they not gain any rating points for this. Not complaining, just wondering!

laoisman11

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122274512#Comment_122274512

Cheers.

If more than 15 rating points seperate the teams, then no rating points are exchanged if the favourites win. There is no direct link between the predictions and the rating points exchanged.

crusd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122273848#Comment_122273848

Looks just about right based on performances to date with the caveat that Derry of 2023-March 2024 may just show up Saturday.

laoisman11

PREDfullPDF.pdf

Haven't had time to sort out the formatting issues with the attached PDF and unlikely that it is going to happen soon unfortunately….

Six games this weekend and only another 8 left in this year's championships…..

This week's predictions:

• Not much to report for the Mayo-Derry tie, except that Derry broke their streak of 4 games without a win when they unconvincingly beat Westmeath last weekend. Only 2 previous championship games between the sides, with one win each, by 10 and by 11 points. Hard to imagine such a big margin this weekend
• Tyrone seemed to have picked up a little form, and will look to continue their 5 game unbeaten SFC streak against Roscommon
• The biggest rating difference this weekend is between Galway and Monaghan, and that will probably be the ultimate decider
• Louth will likely have been disappointed with their last 2 results, and will look to replicate their league win over Cork; only 2 points seperated them last year in the championship
• Both Down and Sligo are on great runs of form; Down comprehensively took care of Sligo in the league, can they do the same here or will lessons have been learned?
• Laois's inconsistency is what stands out when looking at their form - overperforming by 10 points better than expected on 3 recent occasions, interspersed with games where they underperformed by 5 points or more. Antrim seem much more consistent, and beat Fermanagh in Brewster, which Laois could not do

laoisman11

Four out of six games this weekend did not go according to plan!

• Roscommon, Laois and Louth all upset the odds to make big rating point gains, while Derry's draw with Mayo also helped to raise them one place.
• Louth are now at their highest since June 1997, while Laois are at their highest since May 2021
• Despite not playing, Kildare drop another place this weekend after Laois leapfrogged them; Kildare are now in 22nd, their lowest since July 2008
• Hard to believe that there are only 8 games left in this year's championship

laoisman11

PREDfullPDF.pdf

Prediction model output for this weekend's quarter-finals attached.

• Dublin have got into a pattern of 2 good performances followed by a poor one…..unluckily for Galway, a good performance should be coming next….Galway have a poor record against Dublin, only beating them twice in their last 20 league and championship meetings, and those wins coming in the leagues of 2009 and 2010
• Armagh seem to only know 2 ways to play matches - big wins or very tight games that often end in narrow wins, draws or narrow defeats. This feels like a narrow win…….
• Both Kerry and Derry seem to be coming into a bit of form, but there is a pretty big rating difference between the teams; the scores that Kerry are capable of running up should see them over this potentially very tough challenge
• A first-ever championship meeting of Donegal and Louth, with both coming in having had a successful year; Donegal to appear to have higher aspirations though, and their movement could call Louth all sorts of trouble

laoisman11

Ranking table update!

• Galway are now the no. 1 ranked team after their historic win over Dublin
• Dublin slip to 5th, not being helped by Donegal picking up 2.6 rating points against Louth
• Armagh also gained 2.6 rating points after their bonus point over Roscommon
• Teams ranked 1-4 remain involved in the All-Ireland Senior Football Championship, while teams ranked 12th and 18th will contest the Tailteann Cup

Charles Babbage

Teams in the Tailteann cup final always get a bonus from beating a few teams to get there, I still wouldn't tip Down over Monaghan in a game though.

Derry quite a bit down during the Championship.

laoisman11

PREDfullPDF.pdf

The season is almost over! Only one more game left after this weekend, it all seems to peter out very quickly….

• Down's form is much more consistent than Laois's over the last 20 games, with Laois suffering some heavy defeats, the worst being last year's Tailteann Cup semi-final loss to Down. Down's superior ratng status should see them through
• Apart from the Meath and Louth games, Kerry's form has been a little below average this season, whereas Armagh have pulled off some good performances (mixed with some average and poor). Armagh have also done slightly better than expected against Kerry in their last 2 meetings, league encounters in 2022 and 2023
• Donegal have been on a huge upward curve this year, with many performances exceeding (low!) expectations, whereas Galway have mixed the good with the bad. Galway have, however, knocked Dublin out of the championship.

laoisman11

• All the signs were there for Armagh's win last weekend, and even if Kerry managed to take them to extra time, Armagh always looked more likely to make the final. They gained 3.1 rating points and now sit just behind Galway in the rankings
• Galway picked up 2.4 rating points and maintain their number one position in the rankings. Donegal slip to 5th, but it still has been a hugely succesful year, given where they were 12 months ago
• Down beat Laois as expected, and will finish the year in 12th. A season in Division 2 may give us a better understanding of where Down stand vis-a-vis the teams around them - the same could be said of Laois in Division 3

Charles Babbage

If you look back to the first post this thread, Galway and Armagh were much the same then too, but at 14th and 16th, and were similar to Laois in 15th place and below counties like Cavan, Meath and Kildare.

The final will separate the top two teams, but they have both improved markedly and each have beaten the recent top teams of Derry, Kerry and Dublin.

laoisman11

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122390853#Comment_122390853

It's true that their fortunes have been closely linked over the last 25 years…….

jack747

MArtin Breheny did a power ranking in the Indo. Did anyone see it?

theoneeyedman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122400825#Comment_122400825

Breheny is a cod, with his almost weekly top 10 lists....how is he still getting paid for this type of sh1te?

jack747

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122401260#Comment_122401260

I agree. My old man was asking me could I find it anywhere as he was curious. Think it was from a few days ago.

CrabRevolution

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122401260#Comment_122401260

Some weeks it definitely seems he has no ideas for his column so just phones in a ranking of some form.

He often has interesting things to say though, but he's inconsistent and selective to the point of hypocrisy.

One week he'll decry how the money men and analysts in suits talking bullshit have taken over the GAA in place of old fashioned common sense grassroots Gaels. Then the next week he'll quote the head of commercial consultancy at PWC to back up his complaints about something….

I'll credit him for giving one of the few level headed takes on the whole GAAGo furore too.

laoisman11

PREDfullPDF.pdf

So here we are, after a deluge of activity in May and June, with just one game left on the calender. The fact that no-one in the pools competition predicted either of these teams to reach the final is testament to the unpredictable nature of this year's championship (or our bias in always selecting the same winners!).

• In terms of rating difference, 0.06 rating points seperate the teams, both are coming in to the final unbeaten on the field of play in the 2024 championship
• In the teams previous 5 meetings (league and championship), going back to 2016, 3 have finished in draws, one with a 1-point win for Armagh and one with a 2-point win for Galway
• Their last 2 encounters have not been very high-scoring affairs, with 0-16 the maximum recorded; it is likely to be enough on Sunday too
• Which is why the prediction model is going for a very tight game, with a very hesitant nod for Galway
• tl;dr Galway by 0.5

laoisman11

And so it ends, with Armagh sitting top of the pile for the first time since August 2004, and Galway finishing the year in second place.

I will do up an end-of-year review before Christmas. As ever, if anyone has any ideas of what additional data could be added to the prediction output (and especially if you have images of what you might like to see from another sport), please don't hesitate to contact me.

Charles Babbage

Cracking job laoisman11, these calculations are an interesting part of the forum.

Armagh should have won a second AI in 2004, but were not in the right frame of mind for their game with Fermanagh and had to wait 20 years to win.

One question arose in discussion, about the placing of the finalist teams in the final at the start of the season. This year did not include the favourites, although it was not quite as unexpected as 2010 when Down were completely off the radar.

MacDanger

Thanks @laoisman11, great work as always

Desperate year for Longford finishing bottom of the pile below NY and Waterford

J Cheever Loophole

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122445264#Comment_122445264

Thank you, @laoisman11 for your continued excellence with this work.

And as an Armagh man too, that last table truly is a wonderful, wonderful sight to behold.

laoisman11

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122445318#Comment_122445318

Sorry, only fully reading your post now….ratings from end of last year below, Armagh and Galway were in 4th and 6th, respectively.

laoisman11

End of year review, a little later than expected……

Big winners

• Donegal gained more rating points (13.0) and rose more places in the ranking table (8) than any other team in 2024. Jim's second coming had a big influence, but they were coming from a low place in 2023
• Sitting proudly atop the ranking table, Armagh picked up 12.1 rating points as they marched to Sam and also gained promotion from Division 2
• Galway's run to the final saw them increase their worth by 9.8 rating points
• Honorable mentions to Fermanagh (+8.3; 3 wins from 4 in the Tailteann Cup) and Waterford (+6.5; mostly coming from their championship win over Tipp)

Big losers

• Kildare's plunge into Division 3 cost them 13.4 rating points and 10 ranking places in lost in a year definitely to be forgotten. Zero wins from 7 in the league and a heavy defeat to Laois in the Tailteann Cup sealed their fate
• Meath lost 9.1 rating points after a poor championship return of 1 win from 5 games
• Nine rating points lost for Monaghan - relegation from Division 1 and an early Ulster championship to Cavan cost them dearly
• Dishonorable mentions to Wexford (-8.4; 0 from 3 in the Tailteann Cup was their downfall), Derry (-7.7; from Division 1 champions to a very meek championship)

Happy Christmas everyone!

theoneeyedman

Congrats to Longford, the worst team in the country!

laoisman11

With the league about to kick off in a few weeks, here's a quick glimpse of the teams' ratings by division….

In Division 1, Tyrone and Derry appear to be well behind the others. While Division 2 seems pretty well balanced, there are big outliers in Divisions 3 and 4, where a large gulf separates Offaly and Leitrim from the rest of the teams; Wicklow and Limerick stand out similarly in Division 4.

theoneeyedman

Welcome back @Laoisman11 ,always look forward to the updates.