Biden v Trump (and one or two others) The US Presidential election 2024. Read OP before posting

The 1992 debate featured a third candidate. A creative executive could manage to get RFK involved. Would be oddly fascinating.

A possible VP candidate seems to have shot herself in the foot already.

"Conservative pundits have condemned the South Dakota governor and
possible Trump running mate Kristi Noem, amid widespread horror over her admission in a new book that she killed both an “untrainable” dog and an unruly goat during a single day in hunting season."

"Noem describes taking Cricket to a gravel pit on her farm and shooting
her. Remarkably, Noem then describes how she also chose to kill an
unruly, unnamed, un-castrated goat, first botching the job then
finishing the animal off with a third shotgun shell."

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/27/kristi-noem-trump-vp-book-killing-dog

If you believe the polls, I have a bridge to sell you.

There's an assumption that a: the polls are wrong, B: they're not reaching younger voters and c: when was the last time polls were right?Remember Red Wave November?

Also, I think people are saying they'll vote Trump, but they won't. I also cannot see what Trump is doing to woo the middle ground voters that actually win elections.

Assumptions can be awfully dangerous things. Without any hard data to back up the scepticism about Trump's chances at victory, what we're talking about is essentially a form of political 'dark matter' that is unquantifiable.

It would be one thing to dismiss the polls but have some other dataset to back up that stance, but I'm not really seeing much of that. Just more of a basic assumption that the polls will be wrong. I don't really think that cuts it.

People were making hay of Haley's share of the vote in the Pennsylvania primary, as if to say it bodes ill for Trump in the general. Well, firstly he got 82 percent of the vote, which was a 26 percent raise on his 2016 performance there. He crushed her. Secondly, of the people who voted for Haley, we don't know if they would vote for Trump or Biden or neither in a general. All we know is that Trump wasn't their first choice out of the two in that primary, so it's not a particularly indicative data point going forward.

Whether the polls end up being right or wrong, Biden's team needs to be campaigning as if they're at a deficit.

Yeah the chatter about the Haley vote last week was partisan silliness, Biden "only" got 79% of the Dem primary in 2020 and yeah Bernie had dropped out before then which a lot of people didn't seem to acknowledge.

Bernie voters obviously backed Biden on the big day , and the majority of Haley voters will get behind Trump in November.

Polling is flaky and hopefully it is underestimating Biden, but its just as likely it is underestimating Trump as it did in 2016 and 2020 and if so …sweet Jesus. 🙃

I see no scenario where Donnie actually shows at a debate.

And one or two others… Trump appears to have realized he’s made an error propping up RFK Jr. previously, whereas once polls seemed to indicate he would serve a spoiler candidate to Biden they now indicate he’s a spoiler candidate to Trump

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4630224-trump-rfk-jr-feud-heats-up-as-polls-tighten/

Bill Barr also said he will vote for Trump

Latest polls btw from your fav news source

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/28/politics/cnn-poll-trump-biden-matchup/index.html

"Professor who correctly predicted 9 [of the last 10] presidential elections weighs in on Biden vs. Trump"

The 10th was Bush v Gore, which you could argue he accurately predicted albeit not predicting the SCOTUS would shut down a state-ordered recount.

He is tentatively leaning toward a Biden win, based on his net performance across his 13 standard criteria (Biden is ahead in several, but not all of these criteria he says, such as Contest and Incumbency, but not excelling in Incumbent Charisma and Party Mandate):

Criteria yet to be called this cycle: Third Party, Social Unrest, Foreign Failure/Success. "All 4 would have to go against Biden" to call his defeat.

58.8% to Biden, not bad odds

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-has-already-chosen-a-winner-in-the-2024-presidential-election-bdbfec99

As Joe Biden comes to the end of his first term as President, let's look at some things that he didn't quite get right and may explain his approval rating being in the toilet heading into the November election.

Afghanistan Withdrawal:

The chaotic withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan in August 2021 led to the rapid takeover of the country by the Taliban. This resulted in a humanitarian crisis, criticism over the handling of evacuations, and concerns about the U.S.'s global image and credibility.

COVID-19 Response:

Despite significant progress in vaccine distribution, the Biden administration faced criticism over mixed messaging regarding booster shots, mask mandates, and vaccine mandates, which some argue contributed to confusion and public resistance.

Inflation and Economic Challenges:

High inflation rates have been a significant issue during Biden's presidency. Critics argue that the administration's policies, including the American Rescue Plan, contributed to rising prices, impacting everyday Americans' cost of living.

Border and Immigration Policy:

Biden's handling of the southern border has faced scrutiny, with record numbers of migrants attempting to enter the U.S. Critics argue that changes in immigration policy and rhetoric have led to increased border crossings and a humanitarian crisis.

Build Back Better Legislation:

The failure to pass the comprehensive Build Back Better plan, which aimed to address climate change, healthcare, and other social issues, was seen as a significant setback. Internal party divisions, particularly opposition from Senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema, stalled the legislation.

Handling of Supply Chain Issues:

The global supply chain disruptions exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic were another challenge. Critics argue that the administration was slow to address these issues, which contributed to product shortages and delays.

Foreign Policy Missteps:

Besides Afghanistan, other foreign policy decisions, such as the handling of U.S.-China relations, have faced criticism. Some believe the administration has struggled to effectively counter China's growing influence and address human rights concerns.

Energy Policy and Gas Prices:

The administration's energy policies, including the cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline and restrictions on oil and gas leases, have been blamed for contributing to rising energy prices. Critics argue these policies have hurt domestic energy production.

And it’s a list of negatives open to criticism, like for starting from the bottom, arguing he “hurt energy production” even though oil production is at an all time high in the U.S. and now the U.S. produces more oil than any country in world history. Or completely glossing over the many steps Trump took to ensure withdrawing from Afghanistan 1) couldnt be stopped and 2) would be a disaster. Such as unilateral agreements with the Taliban, codifying withdrawal dates for the incoming administration by treaty (again - with a terrorist organization), releasing 5,000 minimum Taliban terrorist fighters out of overseas prisons who swept over the country within days during the withdrawal period, while forcibly drawing down the number of troops deployed to Afghanistan. Etc. Etc. Etc.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61545#:~:text=United%20States%20produces%20more%20crude%20oil%20than%20any%20country%2C%20ever,-Data%20source%3A%20U.S.&text=Average%20monthly%20U.S.%20crude%20oil,than%2013.3%20million%20b%2Fd.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2021/08/donald-trump-joe-biden-afghanistan

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1051211

https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf

^ that’s the Taliban sweetheart deal right there. Strongly encourage reading over it. Notice the lawful Democratic government of Afghanistan was not a party.

Here is Trump bragging about forcing the chaos to happen:

as for inflation that’s funny to argue when corporate profits are at an all time high (and the U.S. inflationary record is beating the rest of the world as I understand it)

https://thehill.com/business/4561631-corporate-hit-record-high-as-economy-boomed-in-fourth-quarter-of-2023/?nxs-test=mobile

And funny to act like not passing the BBB omnibus meant it later didn’t largely pass as 2 separate bills including the most significant infrastructure package in decades, something Trump promised as “infrastructure week,” ever 2 weeks, for 4 years. And failed to do. Even with Republican congressional majorities, not ones as slim as Biden’s either.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infrastructure_Investment_and_Jobs_Act

Etc.

As for the border that’s Congress’ Job. Again, Trump couldn’t get anything passed in Congress, to his shame he had to rob Peter to pay Paul for a few miles of border fence by taking it from FEMAs budget where it wasn’t appropriated. And he still never secured the horder. Biden performs more deportations than Trump ever did. Republicans still pretend like they want to secure the border but then kill their own bipartisan bills to do so, fooling only the gullible and people who copy and paste propaganda like the shyte 2 posts above.

https://newrepublic.com/post/177876/house-republican-admits-wont-back-border-bill-help-biden

^ Here is James Lankford, Republican Senator, rebutting MAGA point for point and calling them out for trying to kill the border deal because “it’s an election year”

Perhaps if the new user is not a partisan mouthpiece they can present the balanced list of accomplishments to go along with their negative analysis of Biden’s term and address some of these points I’ve laid out about Trump and the Republican Party. Good morning.

If you are a sharp-eyed business owner who benefits from the transformation to a third-world peasant labour economy you are in the minority. Only such persons, and a certain kind of nose-picking liberal/leftist who doesn't care if the whole world burns down around them as long as their own standard of living isn't immediately directly affected, supports the status quo on inward mass migrations.

the problem is a lot of people in Congress are such business owners or closely associated with them through crony deals, family, or illegal insider trading by Congress. And those business like those seen in Florida are outwardly complaining about a lack of migrant labor to pick crops under the table etc.

https://civileats.com/2024/02/07/a-florida-immigration-law-is-turning-farm-towns-into-ghost-towns/

Republicans talk a populist game against immigration but despite having full control of Congress for years under Trump couldn’t get anything passed. And just a few months ago had the best border deal in a generation, decades, sitting at their feet and they wrote it themselves and it had Democratic votes and they - killed it. You could be forgiven for saying Republicans actually want open borders, evidenced this year by the fact most of them outwardly say they don’t want any bill to be considered until the next Congress - which is 9 months away, plus any time it will take for the new Congress to get around to it, so at minimum 1 more year of “border crisis TM” because they refuse to pass any interim legislation to stem the flow. That’s before considering that, if Biden wins, Republicans will find 4 more years of excuses not to do anything yet TM

Seems to be that Republicans are that minority you speak of and along with their “nose picking” friends across the aisle (some who share that peasant labor minority problem I’m sure) they’ve ensured that most voters, who sit in neither camp, are energized to vote - which is what they need, especially republicans, because they have nothing else to offer the country, no platform to run on besides partisan grievances, the only other plan they have is… Project 2025. And they aren’t really campaigning on that at rallies and the like, are they. That’s the quiet part. The loud part is “vote for us and we’ll close the border we’ve kept open ourselves for decades”