Will Aontu have canidates to vote for in next election

Uhm, and not the gigantic, continuing crisis that is housing? Or the ongoing HSE dumpster fires? Childcare? Cost of Living? The recent shrinking tech industry turfing thousands out of work? Not trying to ignore the fact migration has become a hot topic or anything, but it's reductive to say it's the issue around which the future GE is gonna be fought. Maybe on the internet.

And even if it were, in of itself IMO that's not enough to suddenly sway voters towards other parties who offer Topic X above all else; on the issue of migration you're more likely to see people to stick with whatever potential government parties (the Big 3 and Labour/Greens, maybe SC) who promise tighter controls - and you can be damn sure there'll be some meat thrown that way. I'd be shocked if FG, FF and SF didn't pivot their manifesto towards "stronger" responses to migration without tipping outright into fully Right Wing antagonism ala the UK Tories of late.

As to the topic? I'd say if Toibín ever left them or retired, you'd quickly see the party shrivel and die. That's what happens so many of these kind of parties, pick one: Aontú here, or something like UKIP in the UK or Alba in Scotland; dominated or started by one predominant personality but one whose popularity almost entirely depends on that person.

It's not a transitive relationship: Aontú running on a platform that overlapped with the final national vote doesn't not translate into secret support for the party, no matter how much one might admire the party, its views or whatever angle one comes at. The AG of his country derided the referendum's wording and this has been a recurring topic on why it failed; and going by my own flimsy anecdotal perspective, people who should have supported the Care Referendum rejected it because it offered them no actual substance to their problem.

Oh it does I'm well aware: if you have a child in créche you'll be fully aware just how critical immigration is to the continuing provision of vital services in this country, given how much of that industry is held up by foreign workers; so no, I don't buy into the scaremongering or worrying that's both the issue and an ostensibly negative one. But laying migration as foundational to the problem of why we don't have affordable housing and communities is starting at the conclusion and working backwards to fit a pre-existing bias - to which I've no interest in entertaining.

Migration will be a topic of the BE, but there are about a half-dozen more pressing issues that only those with a resting sense of grievance or paranoia would think are informed by an excess of foreign people living in our country, or refugees sitting in hotels.

Can't speak to Seth but I read it same as how I've said: Aontú being on the right side of the result is a Stopped Clock scenario and not reflective of where the population's headspace is at WRT party support. I'm sure the Aontú PR department would claim otherwise but digging into the result it's pretty self-evident what has happened here.

As I said, when I heard people for whom they'd have been net beneficiaries of the Care Ref saying they'd reject it, the government ballsed up. But they're unpopular ATM so of course it's latched onto as Signs and Portents.