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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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Comments

  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 29,541 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Russia can't put its boots in whatever country it wants. That's why hundreds of thousands of them are dead.

    I've seen nothing from Macron over the years to make me thing this is anything but bluster. However, while I give most escalation talk short shrift, directly engaging Russia would indeed be unprecedented.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,391 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    the UAF have a large amount of troops at the northern border by Belarus. Say France and a few others were to carry out a 'Special Peace-Keeping Operation' up there, free up a lot of much needed troops to move south

    All eyes on Kursk. Slava Ukraini.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,394 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Belarus, that makes me shudder with some long gone user asking every day when Belarus will enter the war. There's been very little talk of Belarus in a long time.

    However, is there even any Russian troops stationed in Belarus?

    It's a very strange statement from Macron. Would he really put French troops in harms way? It's all very well and good until the first French solider dies. Does he escalate or bring his troops home?

    Personally I think they (countries mulling this idea) should have been intercepting Russian missiles close to their borders. They can argue that there's a risk it could have entered their airspace. Then go with the slow boiled frog idea, start placing your AA close to Kyiv, operated by their own troops protecting their own embassies in Kyiv etc... Allow Ukraine to free up some of their own AA to move further to the frontline. Odessa still get's hit regularly.

    I do welcome the language of those EU leaders about the idea. You don't be making statements like that off the cuff and shows a more longterm commitment to Ukraine, especially in light of the absence of US support this year.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,722 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    We should be improving our own defence capability. Problem it is going to be more expensive due to demand now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,394 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Isn't there another thread about Ireland's lack of defense? Or when you say 'We' do you mean the EU/Europe etc?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,282 ✭✭✭ZeroThreat


    China is building a large carrier based blue water navy for the future, they plan to exert control & dominance in the north atlantic as well as the pacific



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,722 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    I mean Ireland. I'm aware of the other thread...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,016 ✭✭✭✭briany


    What would Russia actually do in the highly unlikely event that French troops got involved? I don't know if Russia can spare a whole lot of missiles right now to lob across Europe in retaliation.

    Obviously there would be no use of nuclear at this point. Maybe if Trump got back in it would be different, as I believe nuking people falls under the heading of "whatever the hell they want".



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,964 ✭✭✭jmreire


    It will end when ever and on whatever terms Ukrainians will decide on. And no one else!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,752 ✭✭✭threeball


    Said as much when Macron first mentioned it. Its the political effects of the refugee crisis he fears most.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,964 ✭✭✭jmreire


    That sounds remarkably like you believe that China is now Top Dog in the world? Xi barks, and the World shuts up and listens???



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,394 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Putin has no issues sending his lambs to the slaughter, would Macron feel the same? It's all very well and good until the first French solider dies.

    It's a grand announcement, but has serious ramifications. France can't go triggering article 5 because French soldiers got killed in Ukraine. It's definitely upped the ante but to what end? Wouldn't it be better if France just upped their game like Germany and backed Ukraine to the hilt with arms rather than needing to think about French boots on the ground?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,722 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    He has the foreign legion they love this kind of stuff. Seriously tough soldiers..



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,394 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Ok, that's a fair bloody point. Kinda hard to argue there. I never thought about that option.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,933 ✭✭✭✭riffmongous


    He basically just made that up didn't he? Or at the very least distorted the Chinese complaints about *EU* sanctions to give his American twitter audience a little thrill



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 877 ✭✭✭eoinbn


    This war is no longer just about the future of Ukraine it is about west vs 'east' & democracy vs dictatorship. The western democracies weren't as weak as Putin thought but unfortunately they are/were weak enough for him to prevail. Macron is finally catching on, but he is years too late.

    There is a high probability that we will see a US dictatorship if Trump wins the next election - a Putin victory makes it far more likely. It's pretty much a guarantee that he will try and be one.

    If France do get involved I would imagine it would be to provide air support. They don't have an army that is designed to fight a peer on the ground.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,301 ✭✭✭patnor1011


    Or the people for that matter. The only thing they can send in is their foreign legion as even he cant risk regular troops coming back home in black bags.

    It is just a rhetoric to appear strong. If you notice the same is coming from Canada where Trudeau is in the same pickle with voters.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,301 ✭✭✭patnor1011


    I am just saying what others concluded. The advance was slow because they were going through prepared defense lines. There is nothing back in rear to fall back to so pace may pick up on speed. Recent chaotic withdrawal from Avdeevka is an example of that.

    There are no defense lines built and this may result in encirclement of few bigger cities in a way while they push much further inland. This is what is being discussed currently and what prompted Macron to start making bold statements which he cant back in reality anyway. He was hoping that few others will join him in his verbal offensive but others are not having it perhaps with exception of Justin.






  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,324 ✭✭✭Field east


    Is that your considered opinion or is it based on fact. If on fact any chance that you will post proof of same



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,324 ✭✭✭Field east




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,324 ✭✭✭Field east


    Would the US military go along with Trumps dictatorship if he tried it ?



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    I'd say you'd see a split, thus pitching the country further into civil war. There'd be those who admired Trumps façade ofthe Strongman and military mindsets tend conservative, but you'd also have the brass who took their oaths seriously and would see resistance to Trump as that of a Protector of the Republic. It'd get extremely ugly real fast IMO and you'd also potentially see secessionist movements crop up too; California the most obvious example of a predominantly Blue state that has (AFAIK) more than enough resources (bar water IIRC) to go it alone.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,725 ✭✭✭macraignil


    "democracies weren't as weak as Putin thought but unfortunately they are/were weak enough for him to prevail."

    How exactly has putin prevailed?

    Another three months in Ukraine and the losses in his troops recorded by the Ukrainians may reach the half million mark and the Ukrainians have already recorded the destruction of over 6000 of his tanks and over 10,000 of their artillery systems as well as lots of other parts of what has proved to be a far from well functioning military force. His country faces some of the most rigorous international trade restrictions and has billions of international assets frozen due to their terrorist activities and he has had to murder many of his states military and economic leaders just to feel more secure in his grip on power. The so called elections that are due to be run soon have required any serious voices against the war or his leadership to be banned from running or sent to prison to die from natural causes. Many countries in the world continue to announce new supports for Ukraine's struggle to liberated their country from his military and while there may be small advances in places by putin's forces on the front lines the attrition levels they are continuing to experience makes continued occupation of Ukraine unviable in my opinion. Not a picture of prevailing from what I can see.

    Just seen now reports that Ukraine has struck at a military aircraft facility in putin's empire with a new type of drone and Sweden hopes to soon send its Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine to help defend against putin's terrorists.



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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Any occupation of Ukraine would probably last about as long as breath stays in Putin's lungs. For starters the insurgency alone would require a disproportionate number of Russia's already depleted forces to stay in Ukraine and keep the "peace"; the crackdowns and punishment would be vicious but you'd guarantee the military that slipped through Moscow's fingers would go underground. The drone pilots twice as hard to find. And if there wasn't punitive action threatened the civil demonstrations alone would make whatever puppet state was established less than tenable. It'd need the threat of Russian violence to keep people at home.

    Yet I couldn't see how Putin's death wouldn't cause an immediate and further swell in insurgent action as there'd be a natural nationalist upswing, sensing weakness when the emperor dies. As it was always thus when empires crumble. Assuming Moscow sees yet another coup, and that feels inevitable given the state Putin created, any and all factions fighting the Russians in Ukraine would probably make a play while Russia was distracted.

    Point being: while Ukraine could yet face innumerable tragedy and death if it truly fell, but inspite of that, I can't see it staying in Russian hands for very long. The bell has been rung, Ukrainian autonomy confirmed as something literally worth fighting for - no amount of quisling inserts into Kyiv (and there already was one) is gonna quash that and the harder they try, the more this naturally independent nation will fight. Russians might like to invoke the glory days of the USSR but other nations remember those days less fondly; since 1991 Ukraine has had to watch its back, and remember the likes of Holodomor as an instruction of what happens when Russia attains primacy

    Post edited by pixelburp on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,027 ✭✭✭Sultan of Bling


    They won't have 38 million against them because most will have headed west for refuge.

    This is one of Putin's plans to destabilise the western Europe.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,391 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard



    I'm going to LOL so loud if this turns out to be true

    A few twitter heads are reporting an A-50 was destroyed on the ground. Pinch of salt, but see what happens here.

    All eyes on Kursk. Slava Ukraini.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    They don't need 38 million they just need a few hundred thousand on the streets, or a couple of thousand to resist through violence - which wouldn't be hard. Insurgencies are rarely made from millions but from fanatics, patriots, exmilitary and so on. By their nature they're small and hard to root out without disproportionate violence against civilians, thus catalysing resistance. And a puppet regime is gonna need a russian presence to keep power, or else the aforementioned throngs will turn up at Independence Square all over again. look at belarus, if there wasn't the threat of Russian intervention I daresay Lukashenko would have taken the midnight train to Moscow years ago.

    As to Putin's plans, populism is still rife and Europe possessing its own problems but Putin's plans can't have involved the NATO border exponentially increasing and now on his doorstep. Or involved reducing his armed forces by 400,000 men (so far, a number that'll grow!) and tens of thousands of vehicles. If Putin wins it'll be a Pyrrhic Victory for the ages.

    Post edited by pixelburp on


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,964 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Yes, the Chinese made their play, and were told to sod off, and they off they went.



This discussion has been closed.
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