In ter esting. France not giving up on this. Maybe its also this realisation from a comment on this tweet:
if Russia break AFU lines and drive across toward Kiev etc...up to 25 or 30 million Ukrainians will flee into Poland Germany etc overwhelming Europe as Ukraine empties & Putin moves on the Gap...10 million more. There will be no choice but to go in.
Based on what? How much ground has Russia gained in the last 1 year of this war for their 400,000 losses?
If Ukraine have lost then why do they still fight? You haven't offered anything credible except glib opinions as supposed fact?
2014, 2022, ... and that's just in Ukraine. Root cause of the problem needs to be dealt with and put in a position where they are not in a position to invade neighbouring countries for the foreseeable future.
Not going to happen.
France is making bilateral security alliances with nations such as Bulgaria & Moldova, Poland & the Baltic states are moving towards an aggressive stance, whilst the USA has decided to pull back. I think other European nations will eventually ally themselves with the French policy, such as Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, Belgium, Romania, Croatia, Czechia. Germany & Italy will take some convincing. Spain & others more so. Will Britain join the alliance, without the USA being involved? Could the USA even convince Britain to stand aside?
The Tankies & Trumpists will be hoping for the last 2 nations above to stop any further aid to Ukraine. Far right & hard left scumbags & vermin will continue to cheer on mass murder, rape & child abduction, torture & genocide.
History will eventually judge those who support Putin & want Ukraine slaughtered out of existence.
And there it is.
I think something like this happens - but no direct confrontation w/ Russia.
If the French put together some alliance or coalition it could have serious ramifications. Even setting red lines on Kyiv or certain parts of the west of the country. Would certainly limit the Russians flexibility. The Belarus border remains a potential threat at the moment. Usual caveats of the threat of escalation would certainly be there.
You are incorrect. Some EU troops will go to Ukraine. Inevitably, there will direct confrontations with Russia, Russia will have no other choice than increasing their military effort. As a consequence, it will collapse their economy and the country itself. All bordering will carve Russia (including China) and also, new independent states will emerge.
It is very clear what is happening.
Macron does not have the backing of the Military
Russia can't put its boots in whatever country it wants. That's why hundreds of thousands of them are dead.
I've seen nothing from Macron over the years to make me thing this is anything but bluster. However, while I give most escalation talk short shrift, directly engaging Russia would indeed be unprecedented.
the UAF have a large amount of troops at the northern border by Belarus. Say France and a few others were to carry out a 'Special Peace-Keeping Operation' up there, free up a lot of much needed troops to move south
Belarus, that makes me shudder with some long gone user asking every day when Belarus will enter the war. There's been very little talk of Belarus in a long time.
However, is there even any Russian troops stationed in Belarus?
It's a very strange statement from Macron. Would he really put French troops in harms way? It's all very well and good until the first French solider dies. Does he escalate or bring his troops home?
Personally I think they (countries mulling this idea) should have been intercepting Russian missiles close to their borders. They can argue that there's a risk it could have entered their airspace. Then go with the slow boiled frog idea, start placing your AA close to Kyiv, operated by their own troops protecting their own embassies in Kyiv etc... Allow Ukraine to free up some of their own AA to move further to the frontline. Odessa still get's hit regularly.
I do welcome the language of those EU leaders about the idea. You don't be making statements like that off the cuff and shows a more longterm commitment to Ukraine, especially in light of the absence of US support this year.
We should be improving our own defence capability. Problem it is going to be more expensive due to demand now.
Isn't there another thread about Ireland's lack of defense? Or when you say 'We' do you mean the EU/Europe etc?
China is building a large carrier based blue water navy for the future, they plan to exert control & dominance in the north atlantic as well as the pacific
I mean Ireland. I'm aware of the other thread...
What would Russia actually do in the highly unlikely event that French troops got involved? I don't know if Russia can spare a whole lot of missiles right now to lob across Europe in retaliation.
Obviously there would be no use of nuclear at this point. Maybe if Trump got back in it would be different, as I believe nuking people falls under the heading of "whatever the hell they want".
It will end when ever and on whatever terms Ukrainians will decide on. And no one else!
Said as much when Macron first mentioned it. Its the political effects of the refugee crisis he fears most.
That sounds remarkably like you believe that China is now Top Dog in the world? Xi barks, and the World shuts up and listens???
Putin has no issues sending his lambs to the slaughter, would Macron feel the same? It's all very well and good until the first French solider dies.
It's a grand announcement, but has serious ramifications. France can't go triggering article 5 because French soldiers got killed in Ukraine. It's definitely upped the ante but to what end? Wouldn't it be better if France just upped their game like Germany and backed Ukraine to the hilt with arms rather than needing to think about French boots on the ground?
He has the foreign legion they love this kind of stuff. Seriously tough soldiers..
Ok, that's a fair bloody point. Kinda hard to argue there. I never thought about that option.
He basically just made that up didn't he? Or at the very least distorted the Chinese complaints about *EU* sanctions to give his American twitter audience a little thrill
This war is no longer just about the future of Ukraine it is about west vs 'east' & democracy vs dictatorship. The western democracies weren't as weak as Putin thought but unfortunately they are/were weak enough for him to prevail. Macron is finally catching on, but he is years too late.
There is a high probability that we will see a US dictatorship if Trump wins the next election - a Putin victory makes it far more likely. It's pretty much a guarantee that he will try and be one.
If France do get involved I would imagine it would be to provide air support. They don't have an army that is designed to fight a peer on the ground.
Or the people for that matter. The only thing they can send in is their foreign legion as even he cant risk regular troops coming back home in black bags.
It is just a rhetoric to appear strong. If you notice the same is coming from Canada where Trudeau is in the same pickle with voters.
I am just saying what others concluded. The advance was slow because they were going through prepared defense lines. There is nothing back in rear to fall back to so pace may pick up on speed. Recent chaotic withdrawal from Avdeevka is an example of that.
There are no defense lines built and this may result in encirclement of few bigger cities in a way while they push much further inland. This is what is being discussed currently and what prompted Macron to start making bold statements which he cant back in reality anyway. He was hoping that few others will join him in his verbal offensive but others are not having it perhaps with exception of Justin.
Is that your considered opinion or is it based on fact. If on fact any chance that you will post proof of same
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