The accelerating fall in Sinn Féin support

really funny though that you cant see that their actual popularity itself shows that they are getting support from the public. They must be really brilliant doing that by pissing off the same public.

Popularity does not equal achievement. Sometimes the loudest empty vessel is the most popular.

empty vessel makes most noise even? Yes. That would make sense. (lets not start making up sayings as well blanch152)

Its a very simple question to answer, and imo ultimately there is nothing SF can do about their fall in support.

To set the scene, SF's rise and fall in the polls is 100% because of the section of people that are not interested in politics, read the headlines only, and are VERY easily influenced by what they read online. People seem to forget that in June 2020, the most popular party in the country was FG, at 37% (a much higher figure than the 2020 election). This was based on their response to covid, they locked down and closed the pubs when people were calling for it around March 2020. A lot of those people not interested in politics were happy with the response, and leaned towards FG. However, by late summer 2020 people were sick of lock downs, and the pubs being closed, and of course MLM was out there calling for everything to be opened up. SF made gains through out 2021, 2022 and up until the second half of 2023, all they had to do was give populist responses to the main two topics of the time: Covid & Housing.

By the summer/autumn of 2023, SF have a large following (36% in Sep 23), however their following is unusual for a political party, as its is very diverse. Its consists mainly of 3 groups:

1. Republicans. Usually an older cohort that always have and always will vote SF. They are mainly "Center-Right" leaning.
2. Younger Left Wing voters. I believe right now this is the largest cohort that will vote SF. People struggling to pay rents, get on the property ladder, and are left leaning. These people made it popular to vote SF.
3. The people not interested in politics, that will say, "they can't be any worse than the current shower". Happy to vote for SF as they were so vocal on the latest flavor of the month, housing issues. Very happy to get behind a party that speaks out against the next flavor of the month.....

However, when the flavor of the month switch from housing to immigration, SF had a decision to make. Speak out hard against immigration, and lose their younger left wing voters and hand them over to PBP, or say very little and lose the third cohort. When your base so diverse, its impossible to keep everyone happy, and of course they lost voters. But I don't see how they could have done anything different.

I honestly thought SF's collapse would happen when they were in government, and they had hard decisions to make that would piss off some of their voters. Its interesting to see if and how they recover from this. As its stands right now, not even FF + SF can form a government. Its going to make for an interesting 12 months until the next election.

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2024/02/08/poll-february-2024-full-results-charts/

They don’t have to be in power to support something. As far back as 2001 they were looking for amnesties for asylum scammers. Only a few years ago they tried to usurp the will of the people by rowing back on the anchor baby vote, one of the most definitive referendum results in Irish history.

And that’s just one strand. I didn’t even mention their cartoon economics.

you cant go by polls to make statements about voter habits surely? Surely for actual facts you need to make sure you are talking to people who actually vote for them? Average polls dont do that - it isnt legal to force someone to tell you who they vote for so any 'poll' is very subjective.

Asking someone who they might vote for and pretending to take a poll of a political party's stance are two completely different things. Bit desperate really to be comparing the two

As I say though - they ARE losing voters. No-one's arguing about that. They're just losing the ones they cant rely on anyway

I dont think its a 'real issue'. They could go right down in the polls and still win in an election. Politics has a dodgy reputation for a reason so you need to have your own actual thoughts on it.

I really dont think you are connecting the dots. Yes, some people voting for SF dont know what the party stands for and are now realising SF arent xenophobes, so these voters are moving on. I'd say the ones in your p[oll and one the ones who've stopped voting for SF are one and the same

To be fair now, I don't give a monkeys. You cant forever be afraid of change. Hate the current government but dont want to do anything different. A bit of the oul Stockholm syndrome there?

Where have I ever said I’m in favour of the current clown show?? I’d love a proper centre right party in Ireland. A vote for Sinn Fein is a vote for more of the exact same left leaning wishy-washy, soft on crime, social justice, money for everyone but the workers, nod and a wink politics nonsense we already have, with the added “bonus” of chasing the rich and MNCs out of Ireland. Depending on the runners in my constituency I’ll be voting for independents.

I think you will find its yourself there that isnt connecting the dots.

Polls have a margin of error, but overall they are a very good indicator of peoples voting preferences.

The polls have surveyed SF voters and those voters consistently come out with the strongest anti immigration stance, vs any of the other major parties.

Its there in black and white.

Some folks who supported SF and have changed their mind because the party isnt anti immigration have possibly changed preference to the independents.

But the polls show that of the SF voters that remain, the vast majority of them are anti immigration.

The polls are measuring SF voters preferences, not the preferences of those that defected to independents. (that is covered seperatley)

I was not aware that thinking for some was so awkward

sinn fein agus gach duine eile

tape the conversation because I'd love to hear your arguments against them, considering they arent in power and have been a powerful opposition

The argument against them is they havent got an argument or a costed plan for anything.

Case closed.