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Ireland Team Talk XII: Farrell's First Fifteen

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Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,095 ✭✭✭CMcsporty


    Leaving aside the Stats. From the eye test its evident that McCarthy is ready to play at Test match level for 80mins if needed



  • Posts: 186 ✭✭ Beckett Melodic Slipknot


    Not with the other four fit. You can guarantee Ireland will have him training to cover lock and he's only a knock or two away from being the bench option.

    Post edited by Boards.ie: Mike on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,139 ✭✭✭arsebiscuits1


    The IRFU centralised their statistics and video analysis a few years ago for individual provincial players - it was meant as a shared resource for all provinces to use from age grade up.

    This was in part due to frustrations at the inaccuracy of OPTA who used students in the UK a lot and quality varied

    Every weekend the provinces play. Someone breaks down the footage for individual player stats. These stats go into a internal database to be accessed by professional coaching staff across the provinces.

    Of course all the provinces have their own video and performance analysts. But due to the time consuming nature of individual player stats - many opt for this IRFU service.

    I did this analysis for approx 2 years and it was quite interesting. And a brief breakdown is below. Note this was 3 years ago and could have changed. But I'd bet not by much.

    Individual player stats are broken into 3 areas. With 1 person breaking down each area each game - Attack, Defence and attack breakdown - ie. attacking rucks.

    Attack and defence were all quite nuanced into passing, carries, post contact, extra efforts etc. All of which give significant insight into a players performance.

    From a defensive POV especially regarding the breakdown, you'd be looking at aspects including

    • Post tackle effort
    • Slowing the ball
    • Disrupting the ball
    • Turning the ball over
    • Committing extra bodies
    • Bounce - ie, straight off the deck back into D line
    • Long on ground

    These would then be graded in terms of successful, wasted/ no effect.

    So when you're looking at attacking breakdown, which is analysed in isolation of attack and defence - you'd be looking at how an attacking arrival affected the ruck in terms of preventing the above listed scenarios.

    A player hitting an attacking ruck first looks at what the involvement is - ie. Clear or Seal. And they'd be graded at what arrival they had ie. 1st to 5th predominantly.

    And they'd be graded by and large into 2 categories, effective or ineffective. And if it was ineffective they'd be graded on why - ie. missed target, physicality, body position, too slow etc.

    So in terms of an attacking player in a run of the mill ruck the gold standard ruck in simple terms for a 3 man pod would be:

    Caelan Doris - Carry off 9, collision won, no post contact (offloads etc, knock on etc.)

    Joe McCarthy - 1st clearout, effective (no ball slowed, no opportunity for opp to disrupt)

    James Ryan - 2nd seal, effective (no other player to clear so seal, ball presented clean for 9)

    These stats are then exportable from the centralised DB so you can see how many rucks a player hit and how many were effective. You can also see which areas are predominantly ineffective so the player can have their work ons.

    This system used to be simpler but they made it more nuanced because they realised there were players who were "ruck tapping" ie. they'd arrive at a ruck (say 4th seal) and get graded on a ruck arrival which upped their numbers and looked better on the stat sheet lol.

    That's not to say that the linked article graded it like that. But I would be surprised if it was much different.

    But I know that when selection time comes in the IRFU would be using some of the generated stats above to help their decisions



  • Posts: 1,345 ✭✭✭ Benjamin Cold Sorbet


    Annoyingly - even the rudimentary stats Leinster used to provide are no longer provided with the same detail since the website refresh a month or so ago.

    But I did look at Coombes' numbers this year - he is still a really high volume carrier (174 carries across the 13 games for Munster this season) but he's a low impact carrier in terms of actual metres per carry. His total metres carried this year is 342 metres, so the metres per carry stat is a fairly low 1.8.

    I know there were games where he moved into the second row during the game, but just going off the games where he started in the back row his metres / carry average is 2.1, whereas for the three games where he was in the row this falls to 0.7.

    His volume is a little lower when he starts in the second row as opposed to 8 (11 carries versus 14 on average), but he clearly gets the opportunity to carry in wider channels where he's more effective when in the backrow.

    Not surprising that his most effective game of the season was the Toulon game when restored to 8, where he averaged 4.4 metres a carry off 10 carries. His numbers by comparison in the second row against Leinster (albeit an awful night weather-wise) were abysmal, and even worse against Exeter in Europe.

    The comparison to McCarthy is more telling here - McCarthy is outshining Coombes as a carrier when playing exclusively in the second row.



  • Posts: 1,345 ✭✭✭ Benjamin Cold Sorbet


    That's really interesting, thanks for the colour!



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 14,702 ✭✭✭✭AbusesToilets


    Going off of form this season, 4-8 ought to be

    Ryan

    McCarthy

    Baird

    VdF

    Doris

    I can see an argument for Beirne at 6 based on his turnover ability, but Baird has been the best 6 by some distance this season.



  • Posts: 2,692 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I wonder if edogbo would have been a training panelist, he is pretty easily the best lock according to that dataset.

    That could be a very costly injury for country and province.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 6,071 ✭✭✭jacothelad


    Yes. Edogbo and McCarthy look like the very near future......and maybe Sheridan who also looks like a brute.



  • Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭ Everleigh Freezing Oasis


    Possibly the best thing that's ever been posted on this sub.



  • Posts: 186 ✭✭ Beckett Melodic Slipknot


    Brilliant insight. Thank you!

    I know that under Andy Friend at Connacht the "Bounce" stat was emphasised as a measure of player work rate and commitment. We were always playing bigger packs so the lads needed to rejoin the line faster to compensate. It was posted on the changing room noticeboard the Monday after every game. Now I understand where it came from.



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  • Posts: 10,091 ✭✭✭✭ Alessandro Vast Numskull


    Its less the position changes it and more the workload i think. Jager in particular seems to allow coombes to go back to carrying woth more omph instead of hitting every ruck going. Theres certainly a similar question to be asked of a lot of the munster forwards that i would of mccarthy but with the caveat that mccartht younger so its more forgivable

    Post edited by Boards.ie: Mike on


  • Posts: 1,345 ✭✭✭ Benjamin Cold Sorbet


    Yeah, it was notable against Toulon where they were getting the ball to Coombes - there were plenty of carries in the centre channel etc of set pieces where his power is letting him skittle defenders and win gainline.

    When he’s making the sort of carries a lock is usually asked to do - closer to the ruck, into a well set defence of multiple forwards lined up and typically not with a lot of momentum - he’s obviously a lot less effective.

    What’s been consistently impressive from McCarthy is how good his footwork and power is on those tight carries. He’s breaking tackles frequently even when carrying in really messy situations. His disallowed try v Leicester (where he ran it in from 60m) was a really telling example of his athleticism and pace.

    Post edited by Boards.ie: Mike on


  • Posts: 10,091 ✭✭✭✭ Alessandro Vast Numskull


    He was less effective at 8 to start the year also though because we essentially couldn't get quick ball without him so its less number on the back and more composition of the pack. If we put mccarthy in a psdt role i think hed excel right now but that means someone else picks up the slack in other areas

    Post edited by Boards.ie: Mike on


  • Moderators, Arts Moderators Posts: 36,496 Mod ✭✭✭✭pickarooney


    Wing seems to be the hardest position to get top quality internationals in Ireland specifically. Elite props and 10s are rare worldwide.



  • Posts: 1,345 ✭✭✭ Benjamin Cold Sorbet


    There’s not one player in the back five who that statement isn’t applicable to. There aren’t any perfect players out there - everyone has strengths and weaknesses.

    What we haven’t lacked in recent times for Ireland is disciplined automatons who can play in complicated systems with high levels of accuracy.

    What we have lacked (at the very highest level) is big physical players who can be difference makers as carriers and hitters and bring a bit of intensity and physicality to our pack.

    Id take the chance on him and have him in the 23 this Friday.

    Post edited by Boards.ie: Mike on


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,095 ✭✭✭CMcsporty


    Teams according to Gerry Thornley

    Ringrose out. Big loss.

    6-2 France and Ireland. I'll believe it when I see it.

    IRELAND (v France, possible): Hugo Keenan; Calvin Nash, Robbie Henshaw, Bundee Aki, James Lowe; Jack Crowley, Jamison Gibson-Park; Andrew Porter, Dan Sheehan, Tadhg Furlong; Tadhg Beirne, Joe McCarthy; Peter O’Mahony (capt), Josh van der Flier, Caelan Doris.

    Replacements: Rónan Kelleher, Cian Healy, Finlay Bealham, James Ryan, Ryan Baird, Jack Conan, Conor Murray, Ciarán Frawley.

    FRANCE (possible): Thomas Ramos; Damian Penaud, Gael Fickou, Jonathan Danty, Yoram Moefana; Matthieu Jalibert, Maxime Lucu; Cyril Baille, Peato Mauvaka, Uini Atonio; Paul Gabrillagues, Paul Willemse; Francois Cros, Charles Ollivon, Gregory Alldritt.

    Replacements: Julien Marchand, Reda Wardi, Dorian Aldegheri, Cameron Woki, Sebastien Teofifenua, Paul Boudehent, Nolann Le Garrec, Louis Bielle-Biarrey.



  • Posts: 1,345 ✭✭✭ Benjamin Cold Sorbet


    Ringrose out is a huge loss, Henshaw’s been better the last couple of weeks in Europe but still hasn’t looked his best this season. 13 probably his best position though and has historically had a great partnership with Bundee.

    6-2 makes some sense to me - Frawley’s versatility makes it viable, though any injury to a back three player is problematic.

    Definitely can see 6-2 for France - they’ve so many options in their pack with loads of big bruisers who are versatile. Similarly - Thomas Ramos’ ability to slot in at 10 gives them a lot of options in the backs too along with Moefana’s ability to slot in at centre or wing.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,812 ✭✭✭All_in_Flynn


    Some set of forwards coming off the bench if that's true.

    Murray still getting into the 23 is odd considering his form.

    Again if true, Ringrose is a blow but Henshaw looks like he's mining into a vein of form again. Looks fitter the last few games.



  • Administrators Posts: 56,565 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    An Ireland team featuring zero Ulster players would be quite humiliating. I wonder has this ever happened before for a proper test, I doubt it has in the pro era a least.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 27,576 ✭✭✭✭phog


    6-2 split on the bench strengthens Murrays chances of being in the match day squad.

    Ryan benching doesn't help his cause to replace POM as captain.



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  • Administrators Posts: 56,565 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Nipping this in the bud right now. That second sentence is trolling, and this thread is not to be dragged into 10 pages of nonsense as to whether or not a selection today has any bearing on any future captains.

    Move on.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,837 ✭✭✭Tigerandahalf


    Bealham is probably our best TH now and I'd start with him. LH is a real worry. Porter really needs a big season. If he could just stay square in the scrum instead of boring in and getting pinged for penalties all the time.

    Hope Crowley and Nash's defence holds up, all we need is for them to be steady and do the basics well.

    Marchand will be a loss to the French lineout if he doesn't start so need to go after their throw early. Mauvaka is great around the pitch but his throwing is iffy.

    Hope we see another couple of players break into the team and stake a claim. We have a real lack of quality wingers for some time now with 2 imports our first choice and the drop off to the next in line is big. We really don't produce speed merchants. No doubt the late development of the 7s programme hasn't helped.

    Roll on Friday night 😃🐓☘️



  • Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭ Everleigh Freezing Oasis


    Murray is a truly bizarre selection if this is true, otherwise I like it. Bench would have some impact.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,376 ✭✭✭✭Clegg


    I'd be surprised if we went with a 6-2 split as our coaches have never seemed interested with it in the past.

    On the other hand, we've a lot of very good forwards and France will undoubtedly be the biggest physical test of the entire tournament.

    If Baird and Conan both make the bench I guess POM and VDF play for 60 each before making way. Doris will shift to open side.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,327 ✭✭✭TRC10


    So Ireland are following Leinster down the South African path



  • Posts: 10,091 ✭✭✭✭ Alessandro Vast Numskull


    As leinster go so to will ireland rightly or wrongly



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,881 ✭✭✭leakyboots


    I posted about him in the Champions Cup thread the other night... I discovered that stats site over the weekend. Coombes is carrying into contact... and if I am reading it right... on purpose, ideally committing tacklers, and with a view to offloading. And is hitting the gainline better than most, but as you say, not making huge metres per carry.

    Here was my reading of it from that thread in relation to his carrying:

    "He's top carrier of URC in Europe (I thought those stats were for Europe and not just leagues, think I'm wrong on that?) and 4th overall (when including players from English/French leagues). Only 7 of his carries weren't into contact... he's 55 carries ahead in that regard of URC players! Very clear what his role is. Of that Top 20 (carriers) he has the lowest dominant carry rate... but he's 8th for gainline success. He's consistently making some very hard yards is my reading of that?

    In addition, of those Top 20 carriers he's 2nd for committing 2+ tacklers to his carries.

    Can't find offloading stats for Europe here but he's well capable of an offload. At the very least he's freeing up space in the backline if we get quick ball, which if you look at Munster's linebreaks stats or the likes of Nankivell's stats alone... appears to be working, maybe? Also, he's Munster's second highest offloader for the season behind Frisch (Source: Munster website) so maybe that solves that one?"

    As I said in that post, I guess it depends on what coaches want from their players/gameplan.

    Post edited by Boards.ie: Mike on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 96 ✭✭Clontarf_Jazz


    Ouch GT in the IT has Ringrose out with a shoulder injury & James Ryan not starting



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,376 ✭✭✭✭Clegg


    The France team has been named. Still very strong despite their injuries and absence of Dupont.




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  • Posts: 1,345 ✭✭✭ Benjamin Cold Sorbet




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