Ireland Team Talk XII: Farrell's First Fifteen

Yeah, that surprised me as I'd felt I could remember some lineout steals from him (but it's possible they were in Europe and then not in the sample).

Leinster have stolen more lineout ball this year than in years past, and seem to be attempting to go after opposition ball much more aggressively. Ryan Baird has stolen a lot of ball this season, and James Ryan is always good for a few.

One final point from me on McCarthy's ruck numbers: I think it shouldn't be overlooked that he is carrying a huge amount of ball, and being utilised as a carrier (and dummy runner) a lot by Leinster. Obviously when you're being gameplanned in that way, you're inevitably going to hit less offensive rucks.

It doesn't speak to the effectiveness - that's more on exuberance and just inaccuracy (and something I think he can improve), but it does explain a volume disparity IMO. His defensive ruck hit numbers and effectiveness are good and comparable with the guys he's vying with.

I spent a bit of time and used that website to compile top 5 locks in ireland using the rate stats for URC. The only **** thing is that ryan didn't play enough to be included i guess? He's not on there anyway. I did not include baird or ahern.

Thanks @LordPalmerston again for the link earlier. Really fun site to play with.

I just did rate stats instead of totals.

Dominant Carry %

• Jenkins 61.8%
• Edogbo 55.6%
• Joyce 55.6%
• Moloney 55%
• McCarthy 48.1%

Gainline %

• Edogbo 62.5%,
• McCarthy 56.6%
• Joyce 55.6%
• Moloney 45.5%
• Jenkins 44.4%

Offensive Ruck effectiveness

• Beirne 94.8%,
• Treadwell 91.7%
• Niall Murray 89.6%
• Moloney 89%
• Jenkins 84.4%

Tackle %

• Henderson 95.4%
• D. Murray 93.2%
• Edogbo 92.9%
• N Murray 92.7%
• Treadwell 92.1%

Dom Tackle %

• McCarthy 15.9%
• Edogbo 9.5%
• Joyce 7.9%
• N Murray 5.5%
• Jenkins 4.9%

Defensive Ruck effectiveness

• N Murray 40%
• D Murray 33.3%
• Edogbo 21.4%
• Beirne 21.1%
• Henderson 15.8%

I'm sure there are some mistakes in my transcribing. Also some of these are obv sample issues but i didn't really feel like judging a min standard for each one.

Edogbo is the star of this in the sense he shows up on 5 lists out of 6. It seems that that injury could have messed up his breakout season into becoming a star.

Jenkins shows up on 4 lists. I get why south africa stuck a cap on him just to make sure given his age. Would have been eligible for ireland at 30. N Murray shows up on 4 as well.

Joyce, McCarthy and Moloney show up on three lists.

Henderson, Beirne, Treadwell and D Murray make two. In fairness to Henderson, he was .1% from making three and mccarthy making two.

Anyway, i'll do a more meaningful list at end of season for more positions.

Edit: i guess a better analysis of this would be to find the elite drop off points. Where there is a big drop off and then a big bunch of guys.

1 potential flaw of this is that its mainly showing impact effectiveness and not volume/work rate. Jenkins shows up well here but I wouldn't think his volume is great

It's great to be in a position to have this conversation. Any starting second row pairing from Ryan, McCarthy, Beirne, Henderson, and Baird will do a good job for Ireland with plenty of impact from the bench.

Come on like bairds not playing second row

Stats in rugby are in the absolute dark ages compared to something like baseball.

I find them fun more than anything. Or a reminder to keep a closer eye on someone during a game.

Those basic physical stats if they are correlated to game success are probably the most important stats. But usually only teams would know them.

For example, in baseball exit velocity is obviously important for power, but they figured out that if you hit over a certain number once as a prospect that alone changes your power projection significantly. I hope i didn't butcher that, its been a while since i read it. i think it was 107mph.

There are probably stats like how quick you can jump and how high that are very important for the lineout. I doubt they have figured out how important each one is though and where the 'cutoffs' are.

The concept of empty stats as well is very well developed in american football and baseball, but less so in rugby.

I'd say two things about that. Team stats they keep themselves will be better. Secondly, they are probably useful but stats used 20 years ago in baseball were useful and revolutionary, but we know now that they were often wrong and/or superficial. Basically, we are at the beginning of the journey in rugby.

Specific stats like those where you understand how the data maps onto your gameplan are very valuable. When their video analysts clip their games they'll likely be categorising a pre-defined list of effective actions so they can drill down into the stats. Ireland and the provinces will have similar stats for their gameplans but we just don't get to hear about them.