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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    They are not really. America has been developing this technology for quite some time, as have other countries. The Houthis are an irritant, but given the consequences of allowing them to continue what they are doing they are going to be squatted like a fly by the west if they are not careful.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,854 ✭✭✭✭silverharp


    the focus in the tech was large multimillion dollar drones, the push in this war is the Lancet type drones and indeed the cheap FPV ones. Russia didnt have this tech in common use 2 years ago so thats a big change and if you belive russian hype the next gen Lancets will be networked in "swarms". The west should be concerned about the cost of systems like Patriot, a Patriot round costs over a millions dollars and the system costs $400m? the obvious strategy would be to exhaust/destroy them with drones costing 10-20K

    A belief in gender identity involves a level of faith as there is nothing tangible to prove its existence which, as something divorced from the physical body, is similar to the idea of a soul. - Colette Colfer



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Don't believe everything coming out of Russia, swarms of small drones won't be getting shot down by patriots,they don't do it now to the best of my knowledge



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    We see with the Patriot system in Kyiv the vast majority of drones and missiles are shot down. It's an expensive system but it's effective. If the Russians or Chinese come up with a weapon to beat it then that will be a game changer, but so far they haven't. Is the Patriot system in Ukraine even the most modern one? I thought I read somewhere it wasn't, but I could well be mistaken



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Russia seems to already found a missle that the Ukrainian have zero hits on over the last while the last big strike they only downed 18 out of 38 missiles,which suggests that they may be low on interceptors or Russia has found a way through using electronic counter measures ..

    Seems they are running low on interceptors.....

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-has-deficit-anti-aircraft-guided-missiles-air-force-2024-01-09/



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    What missile is this? Do you have any articles about it? Thanks.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 185 ✭✭drop table Users


    Tell us

    How are the mass “quantity” assaults using “cheap” tanks, infantry vehicles, artillery and “cheap” under equipped soldiers meat working out for Russia so far?

    why would it be any different for drones of which majority are being shot down


    With industry being directly drafted in to come up with better solutions




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,438 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Quite a high percentage of drones have been shot down by mobile AA teams. The Russians and Chinese would have to overcome Patriot, SAMP/T, THAAD and the Aegis system. American doesn't rely on just 1 system.

    0x0 (1).jpg

    I guess that's proof enough the patriots have also shot down drones.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    The KH-22 an upgraded anti ship Missle as of last week they fired 10 and all 10 hit there targets zero interceptions,seem kinzhals are getting through too , only 39% of kinzhals have been successfully intercepted over Ukraine despite their intercepts earlier in the year



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  • Posts: 1,656 [Deleted User]


    It's the Kh-22 (X-22) which is an anti-ship missile originally designed in the 1960s. What they are firing is not necessarily from the 60s, there were variants and modernizations in the 70s and 80s, also a more recent modernization (Kh-32) in the last decade. If I had to guess i'd say they are firing whatever they have, a mix of vintages.

    Russia have fired several hundred of the family without a single interception. It was 200+ in July.

    It's an enormous (40ft long) air-launched missile, something between the definition of a cruise missile and ballistic missile. It climbs rapidly to 90,000ft, flies level and then I believe around 60km from the target it cuts the engines and makes a steep dive.

    The height during the level-flight phase put it above the ceiling of most anti-air missiles. Then diving towards the target it's going very fast so it's hard to intercept. There may be other explanations why Ukraine cannot intercept them, i'd have to research.

    Against ground targets the modern version would be using inertial navigation with some terrain correction. If they're firing old ones they would be just inertial navigation. There was an anti-radiation variant also. In any case they are very inaccurate but devastating to whatever they land on.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,781 ✭✭✭macraignil


    I asked if you had evidence that China was providing military technology to russia and you just posted a graph of electronic equipment and machinery that is being sent to russia from China. I don't think this is adequate evidence to back up the claims you are making. Maybe the spikes on the graph are wealthy russians getting some new washing machines or TVs for Christmas.

    My other point about putin's forces not being stronger now was linked to figures I posted on the recorded losses they have suffered in Ukraine. The forces at the start of the war minus the numbers lost makes a smaller number with evidence I have seen that the very newest types of putin's weapons are being lost. If they wanted to start a war without the weapons being developed by modern armies elsewhere in the world for decades then that does not make them stronger now. The copperhead guided artillery round was first developed by the USA about 50years ago so to be celebrating putin's forces catching up with this type of technology since they attacked Ukraine is just sad.

    I seriously doubt your idea that eliminating the bulk of their old equipment along with the lives of huge numbers of their young men somehow will help them evolve into something stronger militarily makes any sense.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,438 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    They were all fired (afaik) at areas not under protection of the patriots in Ukraine.

    Same way 100% of the S300 missiles fired at Kharkiv are not intercepted. Doesn't mean the S300 can beat Patriots or SAMP/T, it just means there's none of those AA systems protecting Kharkiv.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,854 ✭✭✭✭silverharp


    they were good enough to take out NATO sourced armor over the summer, which is why you dont hear much about Leopards, Challengers or Abrahms anymore. No idea on the behind the lines use of them, if Ukraine dont have to ration their air defense systems thats one thing , if there is an attrition element to this thats different or its just the cost of doing business, fire a hundred drones, 15 of them hit the warehouses etc they are trying to take out?

    A belief in gender identity involves a level of faith as there is nothing tangible to prove its existence which, as something divorced from the physical body, is similar to the idea of a soul. - Colette Colfer



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    @[Deleted User] much appreciated I was driving earlier couldn't expand on my post about the KH22



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,514 ✭✭✭RoyalCelt


    How do you know all these missile's not shot down are hitting their targets? Russia has a history of inaccuracy with many missile strikes. AFAIK there wasn't even mass power outages after the most recent missile hits.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,252 ✭✭✭Economics101


    Wrong again. Inflation peaked sometime last year and is now generally decreasing. There will be occasional bumps on the way down, but inflation is nowher near the 8 to 10 percent level of 2022/3.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    They might not be necessarily aiming for power stations,they previously targeted grain stores in Odessa causing serious damage and causing the price of grain to increase on the global market, people are dieing during these strikes too ,shahed drones are relatively slow moving targets and are easily dealth with using anti aircraft guns and Gepards , air launched ballistic missiles are a bigger problem and more difficult to shoot down , 61% of kinzhal Missles are getting through and so far 100% of KH-22s launched are getting through and hitting targets that's a problem that could get a lot worse



  • Posts: 1,656 [Deleted User]


    -edit, misread the question-

    I would expect many Kh-22 not to hit their targets. It's not a modern precision weapon. The inertial guidance on it's own will be very poor. However some have likely hit targets and done a lot of damage.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    It would suit propaganda to say that they can shoot down these missles, unfortunately severe building damage and death's aren't so easy to spin, I believe that they aren't able to shoot you ballistic missiles as easy as it was previously made out after the early success shooting down a kinzhal earlier in the year , they have launched 65 kinzhals and only intercepted 25 the other 40 missles hit ,

    I heard they might be getting another patriot and missles but delivery won't be happening sometime after 2025



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,074 ✭✭✭scottser


    Eurozone inflation jumps in December to 2.9%, dampening calls for interest rate cuts (thejournal.ie)

    Inflation is up another half a point across the EU generally. Biggest economies, France and Germany saw interest rate increases. It's not all gravy yet.



  • Posts: 1,656 [Deleted User]


    There are often conflicting goals with propaganda, which is why we see Ukraine (and Russia) flip-flop with what they're saying.

    If a missile is causing you a lot of trouble you might say you are intercepting it with 100% success rate, in the hopes that the enemy uses less of them. And vice versa. But you don't want to paint too rosy a picture or Western aid might not come so fast. It's a balancing act and in the end nobody knows for sure what's going on. We take as much evidence as we can find and try to piece together the truth.

    Regarding the success of Patriot vs Kinzhal, I have no doubt there have been some exaggerations. I have seen evidence of successful Kinzhal strikes on nights where Ukraine claimed 100% success rate.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,742 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    True enough you can't let your enemy know how successful (or unsuccessful) your missiles are. During WWII the british reported V2 hits 30 miles shorter than in reality causing future launchs to overshoot.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,438 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    So just to clarify on those figures and a timeline, the 65 kinzhals that have been fired, have been since the start of the war. This was a time when Ukraine didn't have anything to take down ballistic missiles.

    Since Kyiv has been under protection of at least 1 patriot system, Russia has fired 25 kinzhals at Kyiv and Kyiv has shot down 23.

    You're looking at missiles either fired at Kyiv before the patriots arrived or missiles fired at places in Ukraine where there is zero patriot cover to make the assumption that they aren't able to shoot down ballistic missiles as easy as they previously made out?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,781 ✭✭✭macraignil


    Compare that with the inflation rate in putin's empire of 11.65% and base interest rates gone to 16% in December. Putin started with an economy smaller than Italy's before his attack on Ukraine and I can't see how anything has improved for him since then.





  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    They definitely had successes against the kinzhals,it's not the not the unstoppable Wonder weapon many claimed it was including Joe Biden , but they arent having complete success against them they took down 25 out of 60+ launched now add the danger of the KH-22 which they haven't intercepted any , anti air defence systems like other big ticket military assets there isn't a infinite supply of both the launchers and missles , for instance several EU countries have only recently ordered more patriot missles (1000) and number of launchers,but they won't be delivered until in after sometime after 2030 , that's what they are up against now they will have to prioritise what they engage and weight up the costs of either shooting everything down or only shooting down the most dangerous targets,



  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,568 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    Well their assault infantry, whatevers left of it, their field engineers, their artillery men and their abilility to make cheap unguided artillery shells have all improved. Mass producing kamakaze drones to hit city sized targets is also a new competency they have developed.

    As against that, they have lost ships that they will find it hard to replace, they have shown their serious ISR and precision weaknesses to the world, their tank fleet is destroyed and they are busy bringing old stored soviet t72s back into service quickly and cheaply (while pretending they are producing 600 "new" tanks a year). Their airforce took quite a battering and they will take many years to rebuild their missile and bomb supplies.

    So yeah, the Russian army that emerges will be much better at fighting WW1 trench warfare with added drones. I would accept that they are 10/10 best in breed at that.

    But they will be wholly unable to conduct any sort of modern precision manouvre or combined arms assault.

    To be honest I feared the "sleepy" force more than I will fear whatever Russia can field within the next decade/generation.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,042 ✭✭✭jackboy


    Why would they not be targeting power stations more? Taking out power stations would be far more demoralising to the population than sporadic bombing of civilian buildings. It would also be devastating to the Ukranian war effort.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Because after last year's efforts it's one of the real successes that came from the EU they were able to diversify the Ukrainian energy sector,and bring in back up plants and generators, so they can damage a power station and it can be bypassed and rerouted via external sources ,it seems now they are going after military industry now including airfields and grain supplies which then the Ukrainians have to prioritise when on what and where they protect,



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 837 ✭✭✭junkyarddog




This discussion has been closed.
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