Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Considering it was announced it was going to happen it's not rumour, just people having the notion it was going to happen in 6 weeks last year was completely unrealistic

6 weeks. JFC, people were guessing 6 months, not 6 weeks. That was also the training timeframe.

The 6 months delay is with Danish F16's, there's no mention of the Dutch ones being delayed. So the Danish delay could be down to the F35 delivery to replace their F16's being delayed and not to do with training.

I would think that when the f16s are in play in a large number they will target something meaningful and spectacular and say to the rest of the world hey look what we can do with them now give us more of them as we can use them properly and do proper damage to Russia.

They could but I don't think they will unless they plan something spectacular for inside the Russian border but at the current flight operations they have already have the ability to take out Russian Radars using haarm missiles from their own aircraft, they could go after airfields in Crimea but that brings the risk of losing valuable aircraft,but I also get the feelings that individual countries will put restriction on what can be targeted, hopefully it won't be the case but I get the feeling that there will be restrictions put on them

Any restrictions placed on Ukraine should only be complete common sense ones like ones that constitute a suicide mission or the Zaphorizhia PP and the most basic commons sense dictates that Ukraine would not do either, anyway. Otherwise, the jets are there to hurt Russia's war effort as much as possible, and there's no reason not to use them in that way.

We're long past the incremental defence argument of only giving Ukraine enough or letting them do enough not make Russia go nuclear. Russia will be using nukes under no circumstances regarding Ukraine.

What countries don't see it that way and what are they afraid would happen if, say, Ukrainian F-16s were blow up the Kerch bridge beyond repair or something like that?

Well, I was talking about the reticence to support Ukraine fully early on in the war for fear of escalating things into a wider conflict. I would say that fear has passed, so short of other countries sending their militaries into Ukraine or doing big attacks on Russia (bigger than the drone attacks and airstrikes which have already happened), Russia aren't going to do anything really beyond what we've already seen.

Not with standing the Ukrainian gains in the Black Sea my optimism of 2022 has evaporated over 2023 and now my long term view is quite depressing.

Ukraine’s bravery thwarted Russia’s plan to decapitate Ukraine in the first few days but it feels like the west has missed a chance to end the war quickly by not fully backing Ukraine to win. The west’s slow drip drip has given Russia the time to get its war industry up and running despite sanctions.

The west might have a much bigger economic capability but it hasn’t mobilised its industry to match, much less over match Russia’s. Given enough time Russia will find ways around the sanctions. Add in its high capacity to absorb losses and suffering this could run on for years and years.

Ukraine has played a blinder so far but unless the west fully commits Putin will drag this out. A stalemate in Ukraine in the current positions is a win for Putin. Eu and NATO membership will be off the table, Ukraine’s economy severely damaged, all reconstruction on hold, millions of UKR citizens lost to other countries. This war will also allow him to continue lock down Russian society strengthening his grip on power.

If it quietens into low intensity stalemate, he will move on Georgia, Moldovia or even Belarus. (Don’t see him ever going directly against a NATO country but there are other countries he could target)

To Putin a stalemate is a win for him and a western loss. This will embolden him and other dictators around the world. (Iran NK, China are clear candidates but there are others)

I think this is a pivotal point for the free world and depressingly at the moment we are sleep walking into a new world order that won’t be anything like as peaceful or comfortable as it is now.

I hope I’m proved wrong and the west gets its finger out and turns military manufacturing up to 11 to over whelms Russia’s capabilities but I fear the longer this drags on the greater the risk of our resolve fading.

Lol .

Which ones like the military expert you claim isn't a respected military expert because he calls it as it is ....

Maybe a new hobby or account

This shift isn't uniquely tied to poverty either. Huge levels of immigration from outside the EU was always going to lead to a rise in the right. Especially when policy makers have been doubling down despite public opinion wanting otherwise.

Agreed, we're pretty well insulated here. I had the UK, France, Spain and Italy more in mind, particularly the UK given the Tories exceptional performance in driving inequality over the past 15 years. And it's not just Russia that funds far-right idealogues and authoritarian candidates - the USA and China are quite adept at it too.

Causes of poverty are always complex and often contradictory. Immigration can be a red herring though, I think. Taking the UK as an example, most of their immigrants are either Irish, Polish, Indian or Pakistani - countries with strong historical ties to the UK:

Migrants in the UK: An Overview - Migration Observatory - The Migration Observatory (ox.ac.uk)

Illegal immigrants to the UK are still a tiny minority but are used by the Tories to push quite an insidious agenda.

Most common migrants to Germany are Romanian and Turkish, both EU countries. France takes in the most from outside the EU; mainly from Africa and Russia. The vast majority of immigrants to France are working, whereas 75% of their prison population are French nationals.

We all know that economic inflation is the main driver of poverty. I keep reading differing accounts of how the sanctions are affecting Russia, which was probably the point of the original tweet from Belarus above. It seems like they want to portray the west as broke to deflect from how dire things are over there.